For several years now we have seen forecasts of big midwestern blizzards a week out fizzle. I suspect the 10th will be weaker, and battling the CAD.
Although, I wouldn't mind a big-dog out there, those are often table setters for us.
At first yes, but what if the model is self-educating and learns from past errors? Isn't that where we are heading with AI?
Imagine a (dystopian) world where the weather models are flawless...what would we do to entertain ourselves?
The fun begins 1/20 to maybe 1/27. A four week spell can make for a great winter down here. I'll bet you have fond memories 2010-2011...or ENE in 14-15. And before some moron chimes in that 2015 is not walking through that door....that's not the point. We can have a great month without 100".
The American suite takes the MJO on a robust tour of the bad regions starting in early January. This will have to be watched. Ray's idea of January 20th and beyond seems to be gaining merit...that time frame will also match up with the SSW effects....assuming that actually comes to pass.