Go Kart Mozart

Could the 144 hour GFS and Euro be any more diametrically different?

Um, what?

Seasonal forecasting is tarot cards and chicken bones...I would think AI will lead to huge improvements in this area.

They will see snow within that circle. I guaranty it. They just have to look down at the ground.

Look at the NAM 500mb starting at 60 hours (ugh, I know). It is trying to create a second UL over eastern WV up into PA. Absolutely not modelled anywhere until now...

1/22/05, is that the storm JMA nailed all by itself? 25+ for NYC?

Frankly I don't have enough knowledge with respect to this. I am just babbling stuff I half-understand, lol.

Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that. A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice. Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?

Id' be curious to see how these got there...did they arc in from SE to NW?

Not great. I was hoping for at least a cluster further west. The Cape is in the game, the rest of us are struggling.

Does anyone have 06z ensemble clusters?

ICON keeps the 500 closed low north of the Tidewater, rather than over Savannah. A rather radical change, I would think. Edit: Not a huge change over itself, but far from the look of every other model.

I looked at it and your Albany musing came to mind.

There are clear differences at 48h....so there's that anyway. But yes, I give it about 2% weighting right now.

Let's analyze the living crap out of the 0z NAM! It will kill the time until the globals come out.