mitchnick

It's high resolution so you can look closely at its errors.

Ocean highway between 1st and 120th Streets gets nothing.

I loved that skit.

Not to ruin the party but to maybe save the lives of innocent animals, but the latest Srefs did tick south.

I don't think we get sustaining cold or warm, but the AI has the NAO negative at the end of its run today along with a decent new cold shot heading south from Canada. I think we're stuck in the middle of both seasons but with more cold than warm starting today thru 3/10-15. Just based on what I'm seeing on modeling, MJO, and the general reluctance of winter to give up in Niñas.

Mjo has us in the great phases for winter storms for the next 3 weeks or so (phases 8, 1, & 2.) It wouldn't be a shock to see the models starting to give some favorable looks as a result. I just am tired of the threat BS with nothing decent, if anything, to show for it.

My sister lives between Richmond and Williamsburg about 1.5 miles from Colonial Downs track. The Euro went from 14" yesterday to 3 or 4" today and I told her not to be surprised if it keeps going down. Of course, she's not a weenie and is fine with the reduction. She must be crazy!

Technically, starting from the ocean, you have the tidewater on the Eastern shore, then the coastal plain from the western shores of the Bay until you hit the piedmont, also referred to as the fall line, that continues until you reach the first ridge, the mountains. Also, some do include the tidewater and coastal plain as part of the coastal plain arguing that the Bay is just a body of water that intruded into the coastal plain after the ocean receeded. My recollection from a college geography class when the Bee Gees were #1 in the charts, was that the area inclusive of the tidewater and coastal plain were, at one time, under the/an ocean.

Nothing I hate more than cold, dry late winters. And that's looking like what we're in store for over the next 3-4 weeks, at least down here.

95+% of my posts I would bet we're accrued before I stopped posting in 1/18.

I look at the Euro. Is the Gfs graphcast also an AI?

If this ends as it looks like now, indisputable winner is the AI that never had a real hit, only some scrapes in varying degrees.

Nam really starting to look like other models.

Not what I want to see.

0z Nam's heights are higher this run thanks to further south confluence which h results in a flatter flow.

18z Euro does and it looks like it.

lol AI further east if that was possible. Looks a lot like 18z euro. Nothing of consequence in the metros.

Let me be honest. You don't have to spend the time finding any data because you're not going to change my mind. That's my opinion and I didn't post it in any effort to change anyone else's. Why? Because there are more cities to our south than DC. I have 14.5" and Sby has more than me to name just 1. Maybe it's different where you live and that's why you have a different opinion. That's fine, but I have no intent or desire to change your opinion on the winter. I've been wasting my time in life as a weenie since the winter of 72/73. As such, there comes a point in a disappointing winter as this one (<50% of average snowfall) when you say No Mas. I'm there. I'm numb. Great if it does snow and great if it doesn't.

I vividly remember that storm living in Glen Burnie waiting for my house in Linthicum to be built. Law school friend's wife was an airline attendant and she worked the Sby TO BWI to Raleigh circuit throughout the day on a Dash8. She said they were flying out of BWI heading east to Sby and as soon as they were over the Chesapeake Bay they hit snow. I drove down to Gibson Island on the Chesapeake Bay that day and couldn't see the eastern shore which is otherwise clearly visible. We had flurries in Glen Burnie and that was it. What a nutcracker that storm was and why I remember it so vividly. Of course, my same law school friend who lives in Sby texted me multiple times already today for updates from me because he's a weenie too. Lol

Too many threats and not enough scores. I feel like we've been in the red zone 8 or 9 times this winter with 1 TD and 2 FG's to show for it. Enough already. I can accept Spring and the normal sleep that comes with it. It really won't bother me if we're done for the year. And I'll reiterate what I said at the beginning of January...we really want to be in the bullseye with the first legit storm of the season because the seasonal trend often shows itself with that storm.

At least we don't have to wait to have our dreams smashed.

Funny you mention 12/20, because it was the Nam that was first to pull that system north putting the jackpot in north central PA from mby giving them 20"+ of snow and me 7" with sleet and some zr.

If everyone recalls, the January 20 event that screwed the metros were originally showing the storm to form on the first front and not the trailing Arctic front. JB insisted it would form on the Arctic front and it did, which caused it to be warm in areas to the Metros and burbs south and east. If this follows suit, we could have a winner with the Nams. In that case it was only the Canadians that showed it on the Arctic front for days before. They then started to give in but not to the extent of other modeling.

Still snowing too