mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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18z Gfs. Don't ask how, just accept it without questions. Lol
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Having waves track beneath us hasn't been the problem. Lol
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Where has Bubbler been? Last post was Wednesday.
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Gfs likes a storm at the end of the run like the Euro.
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12z AI actually has possible wet snow at the of of its run today from a southern system (no surprise there) that keeps the heaviest precip south, but temps a big problem down south and marginal, at best for us. Again, temps are marginal at best even in NVA & MD.
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I was referring to the southern plains storm as depicted on the operational at 360hrs that JI posted, not the Eps.
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Looks like central and southern VA and NC on track for another big one.
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Fyi, all modeling has a SSW the first week of March meaning cool spring. Meh
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In case you haven't looked, just about everything is showing a legit SSW the first week of March. Enjoy the cool spring.
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50's next week will feel like spring.
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As an example of my post above, 6z AI made a big jump from 0z unlike the ensembles.
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Fwiw, my personal opinion on the AI is that post 7 days it's as unreliable as any other operational run post day 7. Ensembles do better post day 7 imho. Can it be right post day 7? Sure, just as often as any other operational model. Meaning, it's dumb luck. Day 5 and in is when the AI has shined.
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Although not crazy snowy, Thursday's Eps snowfall had the NE, including PA, above normal for the week ending 3/10. Every other week in March was unsurprisingly BN.
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Fantasy land.
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6z Gfs is best case and the AI is, as has it has now become almost every run, the worst case.
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Can't argue with that. It's inevitable anyway. I hope we have a warm spring.
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Have they caught you yet?
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Eps at 360hrs says not so fast!
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14 at the closest Wunderground station.
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It runs 4x/day out 360hrs. Of course I love it. Lol
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It's going to have to be a pretty big storm or it's just salt in the wound.
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AI loses the storm on the 7/8 (that it showed on the past 3 runs or so) and instead brings a front thru on 3/6 that starts as rain and maybe ends as snow. Basically, no snow on the run from what I'm seeing.
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Eps has Heisey's storm off the coast and not inland like the operational fwiw.
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Unfortunately, I think we need some changes to that end of run Heisey posted. Looks to pass south with a large, flat trough to our NE as it is depicted now. Plenty of time at least.
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There's a system that comes up a few days earlier than that on the AI eerily (eerily if you live in S PA that is) similar to what we just saw, though not as much qpf...yet! Though, surface temps are a problem down south. Maybe it trends north...yeah, right.
