Agreed, doesn’t get confluence out ahead as well as GFS either, there’s a late diving N/S shortwave that is key in this, need that to trend faster. setup still there well see .
Main wave a little slower hurts, but I’ll take the upgrades with the HP/confluence over shortwave which will change. If this run had a more organized shortwave like 6z would have been a monster I think. Might be a little sloppy here .
Just the small increase of leftover confluence and better track made all the difference on the 6z GFS. I could see elevations of the southeast do better than up here in certain situations because they could take advantage of HP if it ends up moving E .
This storm comes down to the confluence pattern, at the moment it looks more likely we won’t get a far S enough N/S push. 6z gfs improved that area and also had a perfect track. Hopes are low but not dead. There’s still some good eps members .
18z Op GFs while warm is very close imo. Falls at night too, long way to go to get a little better cold. Track is almost perfect. Still interested, especially N&W .
My friend ended up at that Motel 8 in Gardner you mentioned… only place he could find lots of places booked up or dont allow pets. Thanks for the recommendation .