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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Totally agree. It also has some support with icon, cmc so it’s not totallY on an island. Good Points though it’s like a Miller A/B
  2. Heisy
    It’s the surface, it’s torched early on (talking for S DE), not that I’d trust gfs thermals ever
  3. Heisy
    Thermals playing a role over in S DE I assume? Because they got a lot more qpf than that. Looks like the old 33 and snow. I wish we had the para to see if it was supporting this or not. Idk fun to see, but hard to believe.
  4. Heisy
    Lol, can the euro cave? ONE TIME JI?!
  5. Heisy
    Wish I could get excited...hard to without eps on board
  6. Heisy
    Gfs looks decent so far thru 105. Not enough changes that tell me it’ll back off from 12z run. Well see
  7. Heisy
    Yea it does look like the low is sheared out though guess that’s why it came to mind. I remember that being a complete dc and burbs type system until like the day of. The AM models started to show that precip into Philly. Was quite the surprise here
  8. Heisy
    This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things.
  9. Heisy
    I cant see the euro being like the gfs or cmc from what im seeing so far through 117, it sped up the wave idk if itll have any room
  10. Heisy
    Let me also add that the UKIE has been atrocious at this range this year it seems. I probably wouldnt have said that if it showed a hit though, LOL
  11. Heisy
    Of course the ukie got worst. lol. Once again, TPV placement way different
  12. Heisy
    check out day 9-10, theres always the next one
  13. Heisy
    the tpv placement on the cmc allows for it to phase once offshore, this actually has effects on the pattern post the event. CMC has a great setup at the end of its run because of this. It has another snow event on the 1st
  14. Heisy
    Yeah the positive tilt of annoyance. So close to a MECS
  15. Heisy
    Note, like I said gfs and cmc differ on placement of tpv.
  16. Heisy
  17. Heisy
    trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit
  18. Heisy
    CMC and GFS differ greatly on placement of that little tpv lobe in canada fwiw.
  19. Heisy
    whoa
  20. Heisy
    This looks pretty good
  21. Heisy
    gfs might be better than its 6z run,. better heights ahead, of course it slowed down the first system so that might have an effect too, well see
  22. Heisy
    Id also love for the energy behind the 28th system to slow down. Let there be better ridging behind the system. It's in a sparse sampling region so hopefully that trends favorably as well.
  23. Heisy
    mentioned this yesterday, latitude latitude latitude, other factors of course, but good start on Icon. I have little hope here in philly, but would love to be able to chase to VA
  24. Heisy
    On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see
  25. Heisy
    I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes
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