IntenseBlizzard2014

Finished with 11.6" of snowfall.

Anyone think that the SSW could push the PV to the other side of the globe?

Yup. Definitely. As long as the Northern Pacific cooperates. Which it should. The extent of its cooperation is unknown atm.

That was due to the northern vort flattening out. The culprit? The NAO. It was Positive. The Strong HP near Western Africa and Portugal and a strong low pressure at Northern Europe is a classic +NAO signature. That prevents the flow of the trough from slowing down and buckling and the storm will just roll to our south.

MJO in the warmer phases kept influencing an SE Ridge or a improper alignment between two jet streams. Along with a lack of HLB and almost zero Pacific Ridging at the same.

27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34 23 Dec 2018 1011.65 1005.45 12.87 9.35 3.16 The SOI is hitting the third plateau of intensity. The SOI will waver from neutral to negative in the next several days or so, based on the previous progression.

Yup.

This shows why the stormier than average weather will happen past the 15th.

I'd say around 35%. It's more likely that we could get 30" of snowfall during that time period. Although I wouldn't be too sure about that either. At least not yet. We need to see if the high amplitude MJO Phase 7 verifies first.

Oh boy. The 15th and onward. Something to be excited about. I'll have analysis on that later.

The GEFS still has that mega amplitude like yesterday through Phase 7.

Starting to look a bit bleak. jk

Can't ice skate. Poor. Also looking at the Christmas tree might make me more depressed. Although I can check it out next Sunday.

Remembering 8 years ago.

Only match I see for 5"+ of snowfall by the 15th are 68-69, 77-78, and 79-80.

Trying to get in the festive mood. Not feeling it. Maybe I'm getting old?

I'm so bored.

This sounds ominous.

That sounds reasonable. Also very good analysis.

The transition period starts on the 4th for the NAO region. The PNA is sufficient, yet decreasing in heights. The EPO is also decreasing. Based on the MJO, the amplitude for Phase 5/6 is below 2.00, so this would result in a muted ridge for the SE US. At the same time, the strong blocking from the Northern Atlantic will loosen up a bit. Which will allow for a more northerly track. This could mean a Miller B, but Southern New England and Northern New England could receive the most snowfall from this. However, this doesn't mean that the block will loosen enough for an inland runner. IMO, I think this could range from a Coastal Runner to a scraper, depending on the intensity of the East Based NAO and the position of the ridge for both the West and East Coasts.

I agree. Although I think maybe a few more days. At the 29th?

Now things may finally get interesting for the Eastern 2/3rds. Just need the Pacific to cooperate.

I'd watch out for the first week of January. There's a legit signal for a SECS at that window. Somewhere around the 4th-7th.

The SOI has leveled out and it's slowly falling. So the SOI probably just encountered its' secondary max.

The fact that December is ending above average already proves that the La Niña-esque weather pattern is coming to an end. So yeah, bring on the mild end of December.