IntenseBlizzard2014

He said in his lifetime (1990s to present).

22 Dec 2018 1011.39 1005.10 13.34 9.15 2.81 21 Dec 2018 1011.94 1005.35 14.89 8.83 2.36 20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49 Now it's staying steady from the previous update. Perhaps it hit a secondary ceiling? Then another potential tank?

Okay. Let's get real. When do you think we will reverse?

The energy at the lakes is probably absorbing the energy associated with the low near the Delmarva.

This year seems to be the opposite. So a post NYD storm may break the ice.

Doesn't matter anyway. That's what a typical El Nino does. So it sounds like the coupling is starting to take effect. La Nina Decembers are typically colder.

21 Dec 2018 1011.94 1005.35 14.89 8.83 2.36 20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49 17 Dec 2018 1013.56 1006.50 17.33 6.56 1.17 The SOI is rising once more. The El Niño is being influenced by other external sources. Perhaps the MJO?

We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway.

This is pretty interesting. https://www.axios.com/el-nino-is-developing-in-pacific-ocean-winter-2019-9d878cf0-a7a5-45e5-8459-b041f209e199.html

20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49 17 Dec 2018 1013.56 1006.50 17.33 6.56 After a significant drop in the SOI, a slight rebound happened today.

With a more El Nino like upper-level flow coming near New Year's, I would be careful to say that. It's more likely to hit or become an inland runner. Much like the late week storm.

The signal is definitely there. This all depends on the EPO and NAO.

It should be felt by the 31st.

I'm eying the 31st to the 2nd. An East Based NAO and -EPO/+PNA signature shows up at that time.

The wind is so powerful due to the backside of the upper-level low next to Maine. Also, the pressure gradient from the high pressures that stretch from Lake Superior to Missouri. That's funneling in a lot of cold air. I wonder if the Lake Effect Machine is cranking up right now?

That's going to be interesting when we get in range for the New Year.

Sounds a lot like 2002. Except for the GL low.

The latest GFS run has the late week storm running up through the Northern Plains. Then the New Years Storm presumably takes an inland route because of the weak Scandinavian Block and absurd ridging ahead of it from Mississippi on east.

Well, that sucks.

Yeah. I feel better after checking out the upcoming SSW and possible SOI tank near New Year's Day.

I noticed that we are breaking a lot of records recently. Maybe the YTD Rainfall is next?

Still a +SOI with subsurface warming? Weird.

I'm going, to be honest. We need a truly promising sign of Winter's Return. Or it could get ugly through January.

Reporting Snow/Sleet here at South Bronx.

A low end moderate can be a bigger influence to our weather. That will override the MJO phases that have been giving us unfavorable conditions for snowfall. Although I don't think a moderate is likely. It's possible. It's going to be close.