IntenseBlizzard2014

Eeeeh. Is that the new GFS? That's because the new one (Now the GFS OP) has a warm bias.

Yeah. I have noticed that we are always finding some sort of way for high dew points. Why is that?

Yes. I'll take low 90s and low dews any day in the summer.

I'm impressed with the lower dews in the daytime. Makes going outside much more bearable.

As long as it's not humid, then it's fine.

I'm not sure if that will happen. We'll have to wait and see for a few more months.

I know right? Finally!

Yup. I suspected this from a couple of months ago. The cold pool of water may actually limit the heat up here, but a strong SE ridge can easily counter that.

It's funny. The CANSIPS had this exact setup running through the summer.

We won't be lucky for long. I've heard through the grapevine that the Greenland Block will start to fall apart through June.

SSTs off the Atlantic need more ridging off the coast. Without that, we would have to rely on the ridging in the Southern US. Which tends to be limited in terms of movement. So this summer, we will probably have very limited heat, but lots of high humidity and thunderstorms.

The CANSIPS model is still insisting that we will be under a humid airmass for most of the summer. Although it's not going for heat this time. Looks like the heat will be suppressed at this rate. The hottest part of the summer seems to be in August and September, according to the CANSIPS. EDIT: Looks to me that the more recent CANSIPS is slightly warmer for most of the US. Looks like an inferno for the SW US this summer, with the Death Ridge poking into the SE US from time to time. This was not the case from last month's CANSIPS run.

Interesting comparison. The most recent CANSIPS is sniffing this out. July 2019 August 2019

You win.

I'm collecting tons of computer model data for a possible significant storm (snowstorm?) for the Northern Mid-Atlantic to New England. This might happen by late month. It's taking a lot of time, but I feel that it might pay off.

That -PNA may not last for long when the convection pushes past the Dateline.

The good news is that the amplitude of the MJO going into Phase 8 looks to be much higher and slower than the past few days for Mid-February.

And last year, we went through Phase 8 through late February. Did that person forget the La Niña from last winter? The point is the effects aren't too different.

Mid-February. Wow. Something great is coming up soon. Looky here:

Next week looks interesting for a few inches of snowfall.

Okay. It seems that legitimate fun times are ahead, starting on the 24th.

Yup. I had a feeling not to get emotionally connected to the weekend storm.

That was because of a healthier PNA. This time the PNA is fragile.

It's definitely excellent. The tpv is suppressing the heights ahead of the storm and forcing a secondary low to develop offshore.

The SOI dropped to -7.30. The 30 Day SOI value will drop to 0 in a couple of days or so.