IntenseBlizzard2014

Nice to see this.

Wow. The SOI loves to be negative now. That's good news. 12 Jan 2019 1011.02 1007.65 -5.84 3.32 3.14 11 Jan 2019 1012.30 1007.20 2.31 4.19 3.51 10 Jan 2019 1011.56 1008.50 -7.30 4.56 3.75 9 Jan 2019 1011.75 1007.65 -2.40 4.94 3.94 8 Jan 2019 1012.44 1007.80 0.15 5.05 3.98 7 Jan 2019 1012.09 1008.40 -4.33 4.93 3.97 6 Jan 2019 1010.17 1007.40 -8.66 5.15 3.97 5 Jan 2019 1008.86 1008.20 -18.60 5.64 3.97 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67

Yeah. I agree. Keep a good distance away from this one. The position of the tPV is the deal breaker with this one.

Nope.

SOI is tanking hard. 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67

Mild January, Snowy February (One of the Snowiest February's on Record for much of the area), and then a Stormy March.

Officially split down to the stratosphere, with another warming to split them down to the troposphere.

From what I've been reading, we are technically in a neutral ENSO.

Yeah. Most of February will be fine. The problem is that once we progress to late February into early March, we will need very heavy snow. If it's anything less than that, then we will have a March 2018 repeat. Most likely with less snowfall.

Yeah. Once we start February, then we only have a few weeks of good sun angle.

I am officially concerned. We are running out of time. We might have one month left.

So doesn't that mean we have to kiss most of January goodbye? It sure sounds like that.

He acknowledged the problem. The problem will soon turn into the solution.

This is looking a bit grim. Looks like late January may be the change to cold and snowy weather.

A weak Phase 8 amplitude can introduce cold and wetter conditions. The CPC will eventually see that it's no different for this pattern.

I bet in a few days, the progression of these plots will start to speed up and falter. A mixture of these two would be sufficient.

The vort at the SW US ejected too late on this one.

There you have it. So stop worrying. Okay? I'm saying this to all of the people that are worried.

A winter storm would likely happen as the blocking starts to weaken.

From what I heard, the GFS is terrible in comparison to the GEOS in terms of coupling events.

Yeah. That's true. The GFS was demonstrating a coupling failure yesterday.

Wow. That is one insane jump. 28 Dec 2018 1010.84 1003.60 18.27 9.33 3.79 27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34

The CFS isn't that good with the whole SSW portrayal.

That snow was from Goliath? Wow. That's crazy.

A 930 mB LP to the west of the Aleutians? Jeez.