nycwinter

  dt saying this..However as you can see the new data clearly does NOT do that. Instead the coastal LOW is much further to the north and east. This means that the Boston and Southeastern New England area see their winds stay North or Northeast so temperatures there are cold enough to support snow and all of eastern New England gets pounded with anywhere from 12 to 18 inches of snow.

according to accuweather future cast radar the mix line enters the city by late morning tomorrow and passes the city by early afternoon

both channel 4 and 7 showed  at some point monday afternoon the mix line making it to the city.

4 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

For reference Channel 2 is saying 6-12" and Channel 4 is saying 8-12" for the city

last night channel 4 was 5-8 for the city..

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

ir is a accuweather forecast on channel 7 same on the radio they are always conservative in their snow predictions

i remeber the late 1970;s snowstorms in the city. so much snow fell they had to pile it in one location  i remember as a a kid i would climb one big snow pile and slide on down

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL! Steve D.  not to knock anyone and should move this to banter but come on really 10-20+? 

zone 3 he says some sleet yet zone 4 more snow and no mention in sleet further down the shore hmm illogical

lee golberg is a euro hugger showing 3 inches for northern manhattan 6 inches for southern nyc and 10 inch plus southern new jersey

10 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Potential prolonged NYC snowstorm.  

Accu-weather initially  broadcasting 6-10” for

the Big Apple.

If trends continue you guys will see a Winter Storm Watch posted followed by..

Sunny and 65 F down in Central Florida but with snow I’d rather be up there!
 

Good luck guys..

that 6-10 for the city was predicted yesterday before today's model trends..

it got colder by a few degrees then predicted last night for the city and it got 2 degrees warmer for today  then predicted last night for the city.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Doesn't matter

Gfs showed a big storm with this week's  storm and look what happened 

finally reality is setting in for this winter you sound depressed..

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is a bold statement anyway since it's only January.

after the big snowstorms of this time of year in 2011 nyc had 1.6 snow  the rest of the winter

i'm sure we had a few days where the temp did not hit freezing in december

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

When was the last the time park failed to hit freezing for a high temp?

in december 2020

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Sweet. Another 2" rain event. 

reservoir are below normal we need the rain...

2 memorable storms in december that is 2 better then we had last winter i will take it..

what a crazy december it has been...

colder temps led to a more fluffier snow that accumulates better..

the park 1o inches so me being north of the park should be close to a foot i guess..

storm bust for the city...

iinterestnig on the weather channel they were using radar and it was showing or indicitive of mixed precip in eastern pa with the temps in the low 20's but not in ny area..

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Not according to the graphics Drag posted....small chance, very small, of being over 12, and less than 50% chance of over 6. If I'm reading correctly. But that's from NWS. I'm near Staten Island and hope to eke out 6.Anything more will be bonus IMHO.

lee golderg said nyc will be on the dividing line between 6-12 and 12-18 in northern parts of the city..

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see...

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Evening Update...

The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet,
and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow
amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point
for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype
transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to
track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held
on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of
this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher
totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at
the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to
3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition,
which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of
snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have
been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy,
with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly
southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey.

In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show
the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should
lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or
precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts
of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow
rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain
in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the
forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of
snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the
north, but banding will produce local variations in totals.

Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around
band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas,
especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add
on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during
the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight
could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued
treacherous conditions into the morning.

No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping
up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to
bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to
the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier
precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate
coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible
in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total
QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit
higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry
slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas.
Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are
anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect,
and are covered in their respective sections below.

the sleet area may just be in only brooklyn southern queens and not in uptown in manhattan

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see...

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Evening Update...

The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet,
and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow
amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point
for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype
transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to
track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held
on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of
this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher
totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at
the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to
3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition,
which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of
snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have
been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy,
with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly
southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey.

In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show
the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should
lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or
precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts
of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow
rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain
in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the
forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of
snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the
north, but banding will produce local variations in totals.

Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around
band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas,
especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add
on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during
the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight
could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued
treacherous conditions into the morning.

No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping
up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to
bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to
the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier
precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate
coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible
in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total
QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit
higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry
slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas.
Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are
anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect,
and are covered in their respective sections below.

hmm channel 7 map shows 9 inches by midnight in the city..

Just now, MJO812 said:

The last time I saw snow fall this hard was in Jan 2016

no kidding..