nycwinter

it feels very nice outside does not feel cool at all with the light wind been awhile since he had a day with a light wind..

is central park going to make it to the 1-2 inches as predicted?

looked like convection fully wrapped around the center and then it changed maybe its starting to become post tropical.

melissa started to get her act together on infrared..

future cast showing a good soaking for long island tomorrow evening.

so after melissa is the season done?

1 minute ago, str8liner said:

What is really weird is the fact that she sat in basically the same spot for days and still strengthened. Usually the upwelling of colder water will hinder strengthening to some extent.

Evidently there was so much warmer water in this area it didn't happen?  

not only was the water temps 30c but the water is warm and deep in the part of the caribbean..

been very blustery and chilly for days now feels like late november..almost tempted to wear a coat..

6 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Perhaps, but in both case total destruction generally only happens in a small area; in the case of winds it's around the eye; in the case of rainfall it's low-lying areas - along rivers and such.   River damage is only a couple hundred yards wide typically though; this eye is 20 miles wide.    A house that's not along a creek or river will see no damage from rainfall but tons of damage from wind.

Reality will be both of course.

Bad hurricane flooding typically comes from storm surge.   Helene was an exception last year of course - but that's mostly because the watershed areas are quite large for the rivers that did the big damage.    E.g. the watershed for the French Broad in NC is about 10,000 sq miles.   In Jamaica the watershed for say the Black River is about 100 sq miles, so even twice the rainfall as Helene would result in only 1/50 the flow.   It's one of the advantages of being an island - it'll drain better.    

Not saying there won't be some catastrophic flooding - the will be, but I think wind will probably cause more overall damage.

watching the weather channel as melissa was making landfall a recorded gust less then 900 feet up was over 250 mph jamaica is a  very hilly country..

i am wondering if the slow movement for days gave melissa the opportunity to strengthen as much as she did..

looks like it has even intensified more then it did already this morning weather channel was saying this is basically a 200 mph hurricane if that is the case then this storm would be the strongest ever recorded in the atlantic basin surpassing even wilma..

we have seen many time sin the past decade where hurricanes did not weaken on approach to land harvey and michael for example..

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world

30-40 inches that common in jamaica?

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wind is always the least worry in a landfalling hurricane. Storm surge and flooding are top concerns here. 

totally untrue..

it was cold enough to wear winter gloves my hands were freezing..

should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading?

7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Recon measured 158kts in the north eyewall at the surface. This equates to 180-185mph range for surface winds.

those winds were not measured at the surface..

i know its in the warmest water in the  entire atlantic but would nor the slow movement cause upwelling?

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I also wonder about that as the highest mountain on Jamaica is over 7,000 feet up! So, hopefully it won’t although it is likely that the enormous rainfall potential is the biggest threat, regardless.

12Z Icon: weaker with strongest being 992 mb near Haiti per WxBell.

1988 hurricane gilbert center went right down the middle of jamaica from the east all the way to the west and did not lose any strength..

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why do we have Daylight Savings Time all the way into early November? It makes zero sense right now, the sun rises well after 7 am and it's still dark here at 7:30.

 

DST year round doesn't make as much sense as Standard Time year round does.  The sun rising at 4 am in the summer is just fine, that's actually the best time to wake up in the summer.  Either that or leave your blinds/curtains down.

 

i prefer they change the clocks back to before during the george w bush days back then dst ended before halloween and the clocks changed to standard time around easter they  changed it because some convoluted reason because at that time oil prices were like extremely high 120 dollars a barrel so more daylight meant less energy  again who wants there kids to go out in december when it is pitch dark outside.. for safety reason..

very warm i even saw a few people wearing t-shirts..

it is a safety issue for some. especially for kids ..going out in the dark  many by themselves...

i rather they go back to what it was when george w was president when the clocks fell back changed before halloween so it would be dark out..i do not want dst to be permanent imagine in december when the sun would rise at 8:00 am...

rain was on target but the storm wind damage under performed i seen more power outages in thunderstorms then in this storm..

last 2 nights did not get as cold in the city as was predicted..