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nycwinter

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    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

    As we have already seen, with this storm directly in fact, what happens tonight has very little to do with what happens in 2 days. The nhc weakens the storm near landfall for sound meteorological reasons: the water is cold near the coast, shear increases near the coast, and perhaps dry air tries to entrain the circulation near the coast. If ALL THREE of those things hit at maximal extent, it doesn't take a PhD to recognize significant weakening would occur. Storms can rapidly intensify, AND as we saw, rapidly weaken. Ergo, don't fall into the forecasting trap of seeing something happening now and assume that it must be true later too! *If the storm is stronger at landfall, it will be due to a high rate of forward speed and having limited time for these objectively bad for the storm things to impact it*. Cold water weakens hurricanes. So does shear. So does dry air. *There is no physical mechanism near the coast that is expected to be favorable for hurricane maintenance and strength*. The degree of unfavorability and landfall intensity will come down to shear and any dry air entrainment. We know the water is marginal. If no shear or light shear is present, it will exceed the forecast intensity at landfall. If shear is moderate, or the inner circulation entrains dry air, the storm will weaken about to the degree the nhc is noting.

    Yesterday, we had warm ssts and modest shear and bam, cat 4 drops to cat 2 on a dime. That was in a supposedly pristine environment. Right now we are continuing to see steady strengthening. That's what we can say objectively. Not how that affects landfall. If the storm were 12 hours from landfall and strengthening, different story.

     

    MU/CD

    well the shear weakened the storm considerably so the environment was not pristine..

    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
    10 minutes ago, Amped said:
    Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track

    This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through.

    i remember when hurricane gilbert hit that area of mexico a wind gust was recorded at 218 mph...

    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    The 12z GFS has backed off on stronger shear over the N. GOM. That doesn't mean it won't come back on the next run. That being said, there is a possibility that an intense Delta might not be rapidly weakening due to shear versus just leveling off and slowly weakening upon landfall. The SSTs around 26-26.5°C several hundered miles south of the coast will definitely halt intensification or start a weakening trend, but if Delta is hauling ass northward and at Cat 3 to 4 intensity, there is a chance it could still be a major at landfall if the weakening trend starts off slowly.

    we seen a few storms where projected shear near landfall never materialized even though the models said it would happen..

    September 2020 wx discussion

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    October has shown itself to be the month where we get our strongest TC (at least over the last 15 years or so).  Not that most sane people want that to impact them.

     

    if i wanted sunny cool temps i would live in san diego i want some stormy weather // this weather is boring...

    • Weenie 3

    September 2020 wx discussion

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. 

    Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats.

    Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.

    more likely to have stronger troughs in l;ate october then in mid september sandy was once in a 100 year storm..

    September 2020 wx discussion

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    summer is over.. it is time to enjoy the cooler

    1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

    think of it this way: this is likely to be the coolest september of the next 100 years :)

    well a asteroid strike or a super volcanic eruption will cool the earth  by a lot.. no one should be making 100 year predictions..with certainty..

    • Like 1
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