nycwinter

2016 nam gave a lesson to all models why cant it happen again..

Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye- like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing, stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

you do not need prodigious snow totals to qualify for a blizzard..

lee goldberg has the city in the 6-12 inch range now and most of long island in the 12-24 inch range...especially eastern long island..

just a few days ago some were saying the gfs has been the best model this winter.. lately the gfs has been bad with a few storms..

big powerful storms can often drop 3 4 or in some cases 5 inches in a hour and that ca add up very quickly..

they did do away with a blizzard watch which is silly..

i was wrong about a broken clock being correct twice a day seems the euro is always wrong this winter..

the weaker the storm the more east it went... now if the storm was in the 950's it would have been different

even a broken clock is right twice a day..

should be 100% implied probability nyc will be below normal for the month..

reminds me of nemo...

i rather have cold and dry then cold and wet...

great rain and wind storm probably will be the highlight of the winter for nyc..

the so called great pattern we were in never materialized..

what a horrible winter so far it has been for nyc..

kinda feels like new years eve time to celebrate...

baseball 100% for me...

nice wind and rain storm for the city last night.. probably will be the most exciting weather event all winter..

agreed all the fear mongers saying this was a event of the pinatubo scale what are they smoking..

from what i read vei explosion of 6 are needed to have substantial cooling of climate

The strength and potential impact of an eruption is estimated using a volcanic explosivity index, or V.E.I., which takes into account the volume of material ejected during the eruption and how high the plume reaches. The V.E.I. of the eruption Saturday has not been estimated yet, but before the eruption, the volcano was estimated to be able to produce an eruption with a maximum V.E.I. of 2.

winter never arrived...

cold yes but by any stretch not bitter cold as it has been..in the past...

The door to the apartment in which the fire started was left open, allowing flames and smoke to spread through the rest of the building, Nigro noted..