madwx

Yeah Madison is 10.9" above average since July 1 but 0.7" below average since December 1st. Only 2.9" between Dec 1 and Jan 10, Basically the first half of met winter had almost no snow.

pretty impressive to see tornadoes right up against Lake Michigan that early in the season. Definitely have positive feelings about this severe season. the jet has been ripping along so far and if continues into spring that will help promote increased shear and less meridional flow which will lead to more turning with height. Have seen 1990 thrown around as an analog and seeing some similarities in the March pattern(1990 also feature a double spike of extremely high AO values in February). Have also seen 1991, 2007 and a few other years thrown around that would portend average to above average tornado risk this spring. Personally I'll be out chasing the last 10 days of may so hoping for an active stretch then.

March(and spring!) is around the corner. The month looks to start off with a warming trend and then gets active with a few SW flow systems rolling through the area around the middle and end of next week.

Yeah late February 2017 was very impressive in terms of widespread warmth. Like a mini March 2012

I’ve never seen a more misleading dark blue on a temp scale

Here’s the max depth of the past 13 or so winters. Can really see the hot streak we had from 2007-2011

In Dec 2012 the depth got to 11", deepest last year was 9" in early February

13” snow depth in Madison this morning. Deepest snow cover since GHD1

In addition we have a chance at a record low temp tomorrow morning. The record low for the 14th is a relatively mild -13 which is only 2 degrees below the point forecast.

While it looks certain to go below 0 tonight in Madison, with no other below 0 temps on the horizon and time running out quickly for them to occur there is another record we could be trying to attain or tie, least number of below zero days in a year. Currently the record holder is 1877-78 with 1 but I am always skeptical of temperature records back then since measurements were only taken 3 times a day. A more modern record is 1997-98 with 2 days. Unfortunately it looks like it will go below 0 before midnight, which means we will get hit with 2 days below 0, even though it's occurring for only 1 night.

Madison hasn't had a temp below 0 yet. The lowest so far is 0 set on January 19th. The standing record for warmest minimum temp of a winter so far is -4 set in 1930-31. Will be interesting to see how low we can go at the end of the week. Current point has -1.

No in fact people have tried to argue the opposite, that solar minimums lead to more high latitude blocking and therefore PV disruptions.

What have your snow out days been the last few springs? Also I wonder how much liquid content is in that snow

37.4" of snow here on the season. 8.1" in Oct, 7.6" in Nov, 2.9" in Dec and 18.8" in Jan.

record high broken both at 11 am at MSN and MKE. Up to 50 here with a couple more hours to increase the temp. the snowpack will survive this but it's definitely taking a hit

Record high of 47 in Madison about to go down as it was already 46 as of 9 am. Today is tied with 3 other days having the coldest record high temp so it was one of the easiest to break

Luckily we have a few (possibly) silver linings: 1) its not guaranteed yet that a SSW will occur, only half of the GEFS have a warming occurring in the next 2 weeks 2) Not all SSW are the same and depending on how the vortex gets split/the alignment of the blocking we may not get brutal cold 3) By the second half of May, when prime storm chase season is occurring, the weather patterns are not really connected to any SSW occurring in Feb/Mar

Long range models indicating an increased chance of a SSW during the month of February. Defintely not set in stone but slightly concerning for people hoping for a warm early spring.

4:22 for the earliest sunset here which can be brutal