madwx

looks like some lake effect showers moving into Chicago. Today looks like the dreariest day for awhile. Nice warm up for the end of the week

We’re about 15 posts away from an Alex Jones video getting posted in here

yeah even the GFS extended has flipped and does not look bad at all

Most weather data comes from satellites these days

it went from 1285 with 12 deaths yesterday to 1535 and 16 deaths today

Overachieving up to 43 here today. This mornings snowfall is a distant memory. Looks like a roller coaster of temps between about 40-50 this week for highs and then rising to the upper 50s to lower 60s this weekend.

And just like that all the snow has melted except the preexisting piles and patches. The old snow has some staying power but thinking all but the largest piles will be gone by this weekend.

just picked up a quick 1/2" with snow showers this morning. Sun should come out soon and melt most of it. Looks like another clipper moves just south of us overnight tonight bringing snow to northern illinois

Yeah Madison is 10.9" above average since July 1 but 0.7" below average since December 1st. Only 2.9" between Dec 1 and Jan 10, Basically the first half of met winter had almost no snow.

pretty impressive to see tornadoes right up against Lake Michigan that early in the season. Definitely have positive feelings about this severe season. the jet has been ripping along so far and if continues into spring that will help promote increased shear and less meridional flow which will lead to more turning with height. Have seen 1990 thrown around as an analog and seeing some similarities in the March pattern(1990 also feature a double spike of extremely high AO values in February). Have also seen 1991, 2007 and a few other years thrown around that would portend average to above average tornado risk this spring. Personally I'll be out chasing the last 10 days of may so hoping for an active stretch then.

March(and spring!) is around the corner. The month looks to start off with a warming trend and then gets active with a few SW flow systems rolling through the area around the middle and end of next week.

No in fact people have tried to argue the opposite, that solar minimums lead to more high latitude blocking and therefore PV disruptions.

Luckily we have a few (possibly) silver linings: 1) its not guaranteed yet that a SSW will occur, only half of the GEFS have a warming occurring in the next 2 weeks 2) Not all SSW are the same and depending on how the vortex gets split/the alignment of the blocking we may not get brutal cold 3) By the second half of May, when prime storm chase season is occurring, the weather patterns are not really connected to any SSW occurring in Feb/Mar

Long range models indicating an increased chance of a SSW during the month of February. Defintely not set in stone but slightly concerning for people hoping for a warm early spring.