madwx

some drizzle started about 20 mins ago and switched pretty quickly to pixie dust.  maybe a few larger flakes at times.]

Moderate snow up to the Dane County line.  Should be here within the hour

20 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Seems like that is an issue for us with every storm. I remember one storm (I think the winter before last) that was supposed to be a big dog for us, but we either busted the warning or just barely made criteria because the first few hours were lost to dry air resulting in either nothing or pixie dust flakes.

It's not really a dryness thing here, its more just a slower progression northward of the forcing for precip.  Getting reports of drizzle on the SW side of Madison so we just need the forcing to arrive(probably in an hour or so) and well be golden.

still dry here.  Precip start time is going to be at least a couple hours behind what most models had

The trend of a mild first week, significant storm around the 4-7 and then deep cold for about a week before moderating for the second half of the month seems to still be holding for now.  Looking like a majority of the area will have a deep snowpack before the cold plunge.

Y’all are getting snow in Chicago already 

will be interesting if this can push us up to 15" snow depth.  Only 23 years in history have we had a 15" snow depth in the winter, most recently 2010-2011

Gonna go with a 6” final call.  Lingering snow tomorrow morning brings us to that half foot mark

This storm is gonna end up with a McHenry County bullseye

The NAMs really speed up the precipitation tomorrow.  It's breaking out in southern Wisconsin by 3 PM

Also all of the 18z models have shifted the heaviest precip band in a more NW/SE orientation.  The QC area gets a lot less snow

meanwhile the 12z GFSv16 has the trough ejecting much slower which allows it to be suppressed and drives a 986 low through Chicago

12z GFS comes in a bit slower and more amped.  Gets the low down to 975 over SW Wisconsin on Thursday evening

I would be using the snow depth change depiction of snow totals on the south end just north of the rain/snow line.  For example the HRRR has Bloomington getting 6.2" but only a snow depth change of 2.3".  Showing that most of that snowfall is either going to be melting on contact or having a tough time accumulating due to existing rainfall.  

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That March 1999 storm has been at #1 every time I have looked.

Based on xmacis got 5.8 at MSN with that one.  Was the last hurrah of winter that year.  
 

the pattern is shifting with this weekends storm.  The west based -NAO will become an east based -NAO.  That's why this storm will be able to cut much further west.

Euro has 974mb over Rochester at 12z on Friday.  Lots of rain in the warm sector.

looks like we'll be getting about half the QPF of areas in N/C Illinois.  But ratios should be better up here so still hoping to get around 5" as a first guess.  Dry air still doesn't look to be an issue as all the dry air at 850 is shunted up to the UP

Down to -7 this morning under clear and calm conditions.  Made it below zero before midnight so we get two days for good measure

yeah, you all better thank the west based -NAO for salvaging the second half of January into a productive stretch

The end of January and first week of February 2019 was a good clipper train

laying down over 3" in southern Illinois.  Overperformer

Hoosier at the tip of the red arrow.  Not a good sign for his snow chances.

This month looks to start out on the mild side with a possible cutter at the end of the first week.  But after that there are signs in the long range models that much below normal temps could be in the cards for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February.

ORD up to 6" storm total

18z GFS is wagons south.  Not quite to the Euro but a significant step

one nice thing about this event is that there will be a lot of moisture advection with it.  Models show low and mid levels will be pretty juiced