madwx

definitely think there will be a few severe chances in the upper midwest over the next week

only got down to 36 here this morning.   No frost that I could see

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

And I am perplexed as to why the deep Southern states continue to get wave after wave of svr storms when I would have thought as we approach mid May the Plains and Midwest would become more active as is usually the case.

There is a large trough over the central US right now that is pushing the jet stream to the south making Texas and the SE the preferential spot for storms 

the aformentioned NAM run.  Kuchera totals

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is the right way of interpreting that map being that if it were to strike in the US, it wouldn't be north of the yellow line?

Correct, the maximum north latitude it will track is around 41.5 degrees north.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wait, the three lines aren't three different model interpretations of its future path?

 

That is its path over the 3 hour period it is expected to reenter, with the best estimate reentry time in the middle where the satellite icon is.  The blue is the track before the expected reentry and the yellow is the track after the reentry time but still in the window

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the yellow line model has this flying right over NYC and Long Island on its way to the middle of the Atlantic, how much would that have to be off to actually hit the east coast here?

 

it changes very rapidly.   For example it's now expected to reenter about a half hour earlier which would mean it impacts in the pacific ocean.   Each horizontal dash on the yellow/blue line is five minutes in time

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Do you know how much of a heads up there will be for possible impact area after it enters the atmosphere?

On the subject of this thread, I admit I am rooting for the snow at this point.  I missed out on the recent May snows and haven't seen snow in May since I was a little kid.  Would prefer a spring/summer like pattern for sure, but in this instance the alternative is a cold rain with temps in the 30s so why not cheer on the snow.  If anything falls it will be gone soon enough.

https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp

I've been using this site to track the predicted landing spot.  Obviously there are many dynamics at play that we can't measure and being off by 30 mins means it could reenter about 1/4 of the globe away.  but it will most like be somewhere along the yellow or blue lines in this image around 10 pm Central tonight, with the best guess of the N Atlantic right now

the real disappointment is that the clouds from this system are going to ruin my Chinese rocket debris views tonight

wagons definitely south on this one

3KM NAM wants to give us snow showers with a shortwave on Monday. 
 

The ride never ends

won't be surprised with some upper 20s here as well.   looks like a couple more nights with frost potential on sunday and monday nights

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still have some signal for a window of flakes mixing in north of I-80 and maybe even down to I-80.  So far I don't think the afds have mentioned the possibility.  Any flakes at all is noteworthy at this time of year though so wondering if anybody will address the chances in the afternoon discussions.

MKX mention a rain snow mix in passing in their AFD but didn't say much about it.

its all fun and games until I realize this subforum is just me, Hoosier and Spartman's 89 sock puppet accounts.

33 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Oh God, the NAM is on board too.

eh temps are really marginal so it doesn't really accumulate.   In the end I think this will trend to rain

This will ruin my Vitamin D intake.  Sad

don't worry, it gets better.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm getting the 2nd dose of Moderna tomorrow. 

Any advice since the 1st shot kicked my ass.

hydrate a lot beforehand.   get comfy and find some good movies to watch.  also be prepared for the chance that your symptoms are much milder because that can be the case, especially for people who've already had covid.

38 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Do you remember the 2010s? Hell I think it was 2014 that was dubbed the year without a Summer. Heck Toledo had Traverse City snowfall in one of those winters

the great Mount Tambora eruption of 2014

got 1.62" here today.  Really helping stave off the drought.

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Only topped out at 79. It's the highest temp of this month it's going to get for the foreseeable future. Let the Washout Week begin!

Foreshadowing a summer of 89s in Dayton 

ended with an average temp of 49.2 here.  2.7 degrees above average.  25th warmest April.

Only 1.44 inches of precip, over 2 inches below average and 24th driest on record

Only rained imby once since April 11.  Need some rain and need it quickly before things start going off the rails in terms of drought 

like @cyclone77 lots of dust devils in open fields today.   the dry air is allowing for some impressive mixing

35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

[david byrne voice] same as it ever was

 

 

you may find yourself, sitting under a polar high

Nice little NW flow wave moving through here this afternoon.   Already some lightning strikes near La Crosse