madwx

Tennis Ball sized hail near Green Bay this morning 

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

England?

 

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

A few areas to watch as we go forward over the next two weeks:

1. Larry should continue moving westward and most likely recurve before any land masses but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will have to keep an eye out

2. At least the next two waves coming off Africa after Larry, they will be moving into a favorable state with the CCKW passing overhead

3.  91L looks slightly better today in the SW Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if we got a weak storm with this either before making landfall in Belize or in the BOC

4.  The GFS has started picking up on development of a low off the SE Coast spinning up off the trailing cold front from ex-Ida

5.  There is a non tropical low moving southward over the Azores, there is a very small chance of some tropical/sub tropical development here

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Cool. Except for  a recurver to nowhere sept  is quite dead  on the  models. Unless a strong high builds  into the  NW ATL and stays  locked the season is  pretty  much over.

How are you not banned from this site already?

It's a little difficult to see but you can notice the patch of clouds headed WSW from MSN

You can tell we’re in the doldrums here.  
 

Lake effect clouds were forming off Lake Mendota this morning.   Will grab a satellite pic in a bit 

Big fan of the cooler and less humid air sticking around 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've fallen below the 8/23 value on NSIDC area. The 8/23 value was 3.38 million sq km and today we are at 3.26 million sq km.

8/23 wasn't a very realistic minimum date.

 

Yeah, I'm aware.  Was really just trying to get the OP to admit that he was wrong

On 8/26/2021 at 9:59 AM, Weatherdude88 said:

NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers.

 

Any update on this?   Would be curious to see what the daily area values have done the past couple days

In addition 97L was just designated in the Central Atlantic around 17N 37W.   Models are somewhat bullish on development as it turns N and then NE with no major impacts on land over the near future.

The Euro ensembles show 3 areas that could develop over the next 10 days.

1.  There is a robust wave inland over Africa that will emerge in the Atlantic by Monday.  

2.  Another wave will emerge after that and looks to progress at a lower latitude.

3.  They also have a disturbance forming over the SW Caribbean sea and developing as it heads NW toward the Yucatan and the GOM.   There is actually a fairly robust signal for this.

The GEFS show similar solutions and agree on development in the SW Caribbean.  The main difference is that the GEFS develop the lead wave over the E Atlantic that the Euro ensembles don't have.

59 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Minnehaha Creek is flowing at 0.29cfs, the mean is 88cfs.

Big wildfire started yesterday up north near Isabella MN. Hearing reports that trees up that way are dropping leaves already. 

That wildfire is going to be a big one, already up to 1,500 acres and nothing but hot, dry and windy conditions for the next 5 days.   Lots of dead and very dry spruce and fir trees in the path of it

Almost ready for those wound up fall systems with some strong CAA on the backside

Tell tale sign has been the lack of cumulus forming in the free warm sector.   Only have cumulus forming closer to the front with the gravity wave perturbations showing the stable layer in the atmosphere.   Definitely a combo of the cap and outflow from morning convection like @Chicago Storm said

storms have seemed to weaken a bit over the past hour, not sure if reached some more statically stable air or other impact from the morning convection.   will have to keep an eye out if this trend continues or if there is an uptick in intensity.  The exception is the tail end storm near Prairie du Chien.   that thing has been producing monster overshooting tops for the past half hour.

the supercell between Viroqua and Viola looks like it could easily produce a tornado in the next half hour.

Huge drop in CC with that.  Almost 2 miles wide.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=909022959706349

Some pretty crazy footage of the tornado up in Outagamie County near Green Bay yesterday.

lots of supercell structures already going up on Radar between La Crosse and Stevens Point

1630z outlook adds 10% tor over southern and central Wisconsin

dewpoints knocked back about 7 degrees, from 73 to 66 here as the MCS modified air moved through,   back to almost full sunshine though so will be watching how quickly we can recover

As long as the convective debris clouds don't go too crazy here, excited about the potential gravity waves/mass perturbations that will move into southern Wisconsin from this complex.  

Enhanced expanded into S WI and the Chicagoland area, 5% tor introduced as well

Things still on track for S WI today.  Look for supercells to unzip NE to SW along the front.  Upscale growth will occur after an hour or two with a MCS diving SE through the Chicagoland area.  Wind still the largest threat but tornado and hail potential increased from yesterday

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Like big boy ones or the micro thangs

a more classic supercell setup with 40 kts of bulk shear.   Main concern will be how quickly upscale growth occurs along the front but shear vectors will be fairly orthogonal to the front.