madwx

59 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Minnehaha Creek is flowing at 0.29cfs, the mean is 88cfs.

Big wildfire started yesterday up north near Isabella MN. Hearing reports that trees up that way are dropping leaves already. 

That wildfire is going to be a big one, already up to 1,500 acres and nothing but hot, dry and windy conditions for the next 5 days.   Lots of dead and very dry spruce and fir trees in the path of it

Almost ready for those wound up fall systems with some strong CAA on the backside

Tell tale sign has been the lack of cumulus forming in the free warm sector.   Only have cumulus forming closer to the front with the gravity wave perturbations showing the stable layer in the atmosphere.   Definitely a combo of the cap and outflow from morning convection like @Chicago Storm said

storms have seemed to weaken a bit over the past hour, not sure if reached some more statically stable air or other impact from the morning convection.   will have to keep an eye out if this trend continues or if there is an uptick in intensity.  The exception is the tail end storm near Prairie du Chien.   that thing has been producing monster overshooting tops for the past half hour.

the supercell between Viroqua and Viola looks like it could easily produce a tornado in the next half hour.

Huge drop in CC with that.  Almost 2 miles wide.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=909022959706349

Some pretty crazy footage of the tornado up in Outagamie County near Green Bay yesterday.

lots of supercell structures already going up on Radar between La Crosse and Stevens Point

1630z outlook adds 10% tor over southern and central Wisconsin

dewpoints knocked back about 7 degrees, from 73 to 66 here as the MCS modified air moved through,   back to almost full sunshine though so will be watching how quickly we can recover

As long as the convective debris clouds don't go too crazy here, excited about the potential gravity waves/mass perturbations that will move into southern Wisconsin from this complex.  

Enhanced expanded into S WI and the Chicagoland area, 5% tor introduced as well

Things still on track for S WI today.  Look for supercells to unzip NE to SW along the front.  Upscale growth will occur after an hour or two with a MCS diving SE through the Chicagoland area.  Wind still the largest threat but tornado and hail potential increased from yesterday

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Like big boy ones or the micro thangs

a more classic supercell setup with 40 kts of bulk shear.   Main concern will be how quickly upscale growth occurs along the front but shear vectors will be fairly orthogonal to the front.

25 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Linear trash, that's what.

tomorrow is the day for supercells

Been 50+ mph wind gusts for over 15 mins now.  Nothing super crazy high end but the longevity has been impressive 

Shelf incoming.  Almost overhead

Both today and tomorrow look fairly interesting in S WI.  Shear will be a limiting factor today but instability will be off the charts.  I’ll be keeping an eye on any mesoscale enhancement of the wind fields.  
 

tomorrow has also uptrended around here. Instability will be a bit less but still on the high end of climo. Shear will be sufficient for supercells. 

MCV rolling ENE from Central Iowa late this morning.   Should be an interesting afternoon again in Southern Wisconsin

5.59" of rain today in La Crosse, wettest day on record for that city.

Tomahawk, Wi got down to 39 this morning. 

Black River Falls 42 and Fort McCoy 43.

The amount of wildfire smoke overhead is absurd.  If this is the new normal I want off this ride 

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Was woken up by the sirens - there's one just outside our apartment building - just before 1 AM (or 1 hour 15 minutes before my alarm goes off). My fiancee and I never received WEAs on our phones because we were outside of the polygon, but when I pulled up Radarscope, what sure looked like a couplet was passing over Middleton just to our west.

There was definitely a bookend rotation there.   Never really tightened up but I could see the notch as it passed to my W.

Magnitude 8.2 earthquake just occurred near the Aleutian Islands.   Have to watch for tsunami potential with this one