madwx

still no severe thunderstorm, tornado or flash flood warnings issue by MKX.   

11 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This chart reaffirms the perception in my memory that 2008 was awesome. Unfortunately I was 22, just out of college, and didn't have the financial resources to chase.

I was surprised to see 2006 so high, since that is almost universally reviled as an awful chase season. Your post explains things, guessing that was the outbreaks on 3/12 and 4/2 responsible for most of those?

Number of severe warnings doesn't really line up with chaseability.   A lot of those warnings probably come from overnight MCS.

34 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

It’s not continuing. Despite your wishes otherwise, the pandemics over. 

This guy is right, time to shut this thread down.  There's been nothing of value posted in the last three pages

2 hours ago, Mogget said:

36 degrees this AM, below the forecasted low.  No frost advisory, either, but I see frost on cars and on the ground.  I hope I didn’t just lose my tomatoes and watermelons...

May have lost a tomato plant here but everything else looks good.  I had thought about frost potential but when going to be we were 8 degrees warmer than the same time last night so I thought we’d be ok 

2 hours ago, outflow said:

Central Nebraska, north Platte?, At 285 days is unbelievable, they are only 5 days ahead of Marquette.

that's hastings but yeah that's pretty nuts

2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Do you guys think it might be worth it to take a jog an hour or two south and see if I can catch any development or nah?

Drive 4 hours north and catch some snow.

going to be a not so good 48 hour stretch starting tomorrow morning.   two cold rainy days with temps in the 40s and a serious frost potential friday night

only a couple hundredths here.  need this upcoming soaker to keep holding off the drought

53 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

 

There were 8 cases of Bell's in Moderna and Pfizer clinical trials, 4 in each. 

now do the part where you read the rest of his sentence.  

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would be nice to land a pop up sunday evening

think a lot of people will have a chance at convection sunday with the cold front crashing SW

1 minute ago, luckyweather said:

Less than a month to the solstice and the sun angle starts the descent to its minima.

almost time to get the snow machine cranking again

Madison had 6 70 degree days during the same stretch.  Pretty crazy

24 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Cedar Rapids hit 87º on May 1st and 85º on May 2nd.  CR officially just hit 70º for the first time since May 2nd.  Two 70+ days from May 1-18 is the least number since 1945.

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

I read that some independent studies have shown up to 80% effectiveness after getting the first covid vaccine. Maybe I should just stick with one and not get the 2nd one.

the boost in protection and long lasting antibodies is well worth any illness you feel after the second shot.   It's also far from guaranteed that you will feel bad after the second shot, some just get a sore arm and feel tired.

definitely think there will be a few severe chances in the upper midwest over the next week

only got down to 36 here this morning.   No frost that I could see

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

And I am perplexed as to why the deep Southern states continue to get wave after wave of svr storms when I would have thought as we approach mid May the Plains and Midwest would become more active as is usually the case.

There is a large trough over the central US right now that is pushing the jet stream to the south making Texas and the SE the preferential spot for storms 

the aformentioned NAM run.  Kuchera totals

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is the right way of interpreting that map being that if it were to strike in the US, it wouldn't be north of the yellow line?

Correct, the maximum north latitude it will track is around 41.5 degrees north.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wait, the three lines aren't three different model interpretations of its future path?

 

That is its path over the 3 hour period it is expected to reenter, with the best estimate reentry time in the middle where the satellite icon is.  The blue is the track before the expected reentry and the yellow is the track after the reentry time but still in the window

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the yellow line model has this flying right over NYC and Long Island on its way to the middle of the Atlantic, how much would that have to be off to actually hit the east coast here?

 

it changes very rapidly.   For example it's now expected to reenter about a half hour earlier which would mean it impacts in the pacific ocean.   Each horizontal dash on the yellow/blue line is five minutes in time

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Do you know how much of a heads up there will be for possible impact area after it enters the atmosphere?

On the subject of this thread, I admit I am rooting for the snow at this point.  I missed out on the recent May snows and haven't seen snow in May since I was a little kid.  Would prefer a spring/summer like pattern for sure, but in this instance the alternative is a cold rain with temps in the 30s so why not cheer on the snow.  If anything falls it will be gone soon enough.

https://twitter.com/AerospaceCorp

I've been using this site to track the predicted landing spot.  Obviously there are many dynamics at play that we can't measure and being off by 30 mins means it could reenter about 1/4 of the globe away.  but it will most like be somewhere along the yellow or blue lines in this image around 10 pm Central tonight, with the best guess of the N Atlantic right now

the real disappointment is that the clouds from this system are going to ruin my Chinese rocket debris views tonight

wagons definitely south on this one

3KM NAM wants to give us snow showers with a shortwave on Monday. 
 

The ride never ends

won't be surprised with some upper 20s here as well.   looks like a couple more nights with frost potential on sunday and monday nights

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still have some signal for a window of flakes mixing in north of I-80 and maybe even down to I-80.  So far I don't think the afds have mentioned the possibility.  Any flakes at all is noteworthy at this time of year though so wondering if anybody will address the chances in the afternoon discussions.

MKX mention a rain snow mix in passing in their AFD but didn't say much about it.