madwx

that UH streak from S Minnesota thru the SE side of the Twin Cities on the HRRR is going to verify well

12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The overnight warmth (55-60º all night) took care of the any remaining speck of snow in my neighborhood.

Same, there were still a few piles in my yard but they easily got wiped out overnight.  The frost in the ground also thawed as the piles of standing water yesterday are gone now, despite some rain this morning.

whatever cooldown we have from the 15-25 looks to be fairly mild with around normal temps expected.  Long range progs show a warmup occurring after that with teleconnections remaining favorable and the MJO moving out of cool regions for the midwest.

just got our first 60 of the season here.  Snow coverage down below 50% in my neighborhood.

Seasons are changing and so are our complaints.   First up some good news though, more proof that the GFSv16 is performing much better than the old GFS and has even been doing better than the Euro.

12 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

That's awesome man, 60 pounds is a ton of weight.

thanks,  the pandemic was the wakeup call I needed to make changes in my life to be healthier, but unfortunately many don't have the means or education to make those changes.

4 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

We are a year in now.  Health improvements that should have been pushed from early on could be well under way by now. 

oh believe me, I've lost 60 pounds in the past year and exercise much more frequently now.  But to actually get health changes in this country we would have to divest from the corporate attitude of selling products that detract from personal wellbeing

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

You may be correct, but its strange to me that self directed health improvements don't get the same attention as other prevention methods. I.E., "wear a mask, social distance" to minimize the risk you catch it ALONG with "exercise, eat better" to minimize the risk of getting a serious case if you do. 

the thing is fixing obesity is a years long thing on an individual level and a generational thing on a societal level.  Yes it should be dealt with but when a pandemic is here the more immediate steps like masking and distancing are a much more appropriate response.

Both the GEFS and Euro weeklies show above to much above normal temps lasting through the end of next week.  A period of average to possibly slightly below average temps will be around the 15-22, especially in the western subforum, before above average temps move back in the last week of the month.

broke 50 for the first time this year and the first time since December 23.  The snowpack is really taking a beating now.  I imagine most of it will be gone by this time next week

Inversion broke between 8 and 9 am today and the temp went up 9 degrees in an hour.  Up past 38 already

On 2/25/2021 at 11:03 PM, RCNYILWX said:

There's something wrong with the NAM's boundary layer scheme that gives modeled snow depth super powers. This creates a feedback cycle in which the snow cover is melted far slower than in reality due to the phantom snow cover influence keeping temps cooler and the cooler temps not allowing the snow to fully melt. Very easy to see this in action on the 00z NAM via Pivotal Weather. Just compare the model snow depth to the modeled 2m temps.

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Continuing this thought, todays 12z NAM has high temps(21z) here for the next 4 days of 33, 33, 33 and 32.  Can't wait to see how much they are going to bust by

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I wish this were the March 31 run.

 

I know,  March's have been reasonably mild around here recently but April has been the killer month in terms of delayed spring.

1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

Now that is something you don't see everyday. Also you guys still have 10" down there? We are down to piles up here for the most part. Would have thought the near 50's on Saturday would have significantly melted it. Guess not.

It's definitely less than that in a lot of places but the bottom half of the pack is a solid glacier from late December/early January

An additional fun fact, with the snow depth remaining at 10" at the airport on the 28th, we officially had double digit snow depth the entire month

Ended up tied for the 12th coldest February here.  The mild last week brought us warmer than 2014 and 2015.  Snowfall was slightly below average(10.4" vs the 12.4" average) but precip overall was about half of average (0.8" vs 1.5" average).

Got 15 mins of nice aggregates about a half hour ago.  Nice treat for my first night in my house 

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking like a near seasonal start to March locally then warming up on March 2-3. Euro ensemble showing a brief +PNA spike bringing a decent cool down later next week, followed by the ridge rolling east and warming us back up as already mentioned in a few posts.

Pattern should revert to -PNA out to mid month with no block, so a mild and active look. Parts of the northern Plains could make up for their poor winter in that pattern once it takes hold as Aleutian ridging should ensure the CONUS is not completely devoid of cold air. I'd be surprised if March doesn't finish solidly AN for a good chunk of the sub, though figure there will manage to be a snow threat at some point. Maybe this is finally the year we don't get completely unwanted blocking and snow in April.

Lastly, it's everyone's favorite time of year, ignore the NAM season. If only SPC had gotten that memo for April 7, 2020 lol.

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Agree to that last part.  It’s been too low by about 8-12 degrees on the high temps the past 4 or 5 days

Today is the first day with over 11 hours of daylight here.  Really noticing the earlier mornings now as well

after a brief colder shot early next week there are signs that the middle and end of next week could get downright mild, with 50s and 60s getting at least into southern Wisconsin

up to 41 already at 10 am.  The point forecast high was just bumped from 40 to 44 here.

snow depth got up to 16" here this morning which should be our max for the season.  

made it up to at least 37 today.  Didn't reach our high until 5 and 6 pm.  Point forecast only has us dropping down to 34 tonight with SW winds.  Should help melting go through the night

clouds held on strong through the morning but the sun has started to break out within the last half hour.  Expecting a jump into the mid 30s soon.  It'll be our first time above 32 since January 21!