madwx

boom on people getting over an inch, bust on any snow squall warnings being issued

when Alaska torches, we do well with cold

looks like Alabama might get some snow

bombs away

sitting in front of a S facing window watching the snow melt outside and dare I say, the sun feels pretty strong

what's the deal with inversions.

37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

 

 

 

 

Images are always welcome!

6 hours ago, Spartman said:

12z GFS:

What does it show for the northern half of the subforum?

Freezing fog came in overnight and deposited rime ice on everything.  Looks as if it had snowed overnight

bright sunshine this morning.  nice change of pace.  rime ice was pretty brilliant in the sunshine

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Anecdotally I'd say the Bering Sea Rule/concept has more merit, which would make sense since it's on a shorter time scale.  The LRC seems too easy to go back and try to fit the narrative that you want.

Yeah I always hear about the LRC a few times a winter which makes me think they just find a couple times it matches the pattern from ~45 days back and make it work.  If it was a true match we could just map out the whole winter.

22 minutes ago, ikcarsky said:

Says you.  I took the gamble, got it, got over it.  Just doing my part to contribute to herd immunity, which I thought was looking good in the Midwest with ~10% of the population in ND, SD, WI, IA that have now returned positive tests and an immune population that is surely much higher.  Except now I'm being told that natural immunity doesn't count toward herd immunity, only vaccinations.  Really makes you think.

this guy gets infected

parts of DMX that were under a WSW until 6 AM are now probably only going to get freezing drizzle the rest of the storm

La Crosse area is going to really get shafted.  They were under an advisory(1 county away from a warning) and only had 0.8" as of 6pm

lol the back end is already approaching the Mississippi River N of Dubuque.  gotta go fast.

Edit: a good 8 hours ahead of when the NAM has the back edge crossing the river

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

what link do you use for the para gfs? it's stuck on like a week old run on tidbits.

Pivotal has it.  Its running 4 times daily for the next month as this is part of its final test before becoming operational.

lull here now.  should pick back up soon enough though

to highlight how quick hitting this will be in the end(at least north of the WI/IL border) the back end of the snow is already approaching I35 in Iowa.

already accumulating.  not huge flakes but pretty efficient.

3 minutes ago, madwx said:

based on Radar and mPing snow is spreading into Madison.  About an hour or two earlier than models suggested.  It's easily overcoming the dry low levels

and it's started at my place.  flurries now but should ramp up quickly

based on Radar and mPing snow is spreading into Madison.  About an hour or two earlier than models suggested.  It's easily overcoming the dry low levels

La Crosse bringing top notch banter to their forecast discussion

6.5” final call here with snow ending by 1 am and some patchy freezing drizzle until sunrise 

17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What else is new?

I seemed to recall an event last winter or the one before that was supposed to be our biggest of the winter and modeled/warning criteria totals were killed by dry air at the outset.

We’re going to moisten up pretty rapidly this afternoon and go gangbusters for a few hours 

Cloud bases still at 17,000 feet here.  Going to need all of the next 7 hours to saturate