uncletim

Thanks everyone for this discussion - much appreciated. I wish there was a way to look up this "forecast vs. observed" historically - if there is, I haven't found it. I'm curious to know how the forecasts from 2010 tracked with eventual observations. I recall clearly that even at the beginning of the fairly extended January thaw that winter the strongest voices here (Eastern back then?), such as Wes, DonS and a couple of others, were rock solid in their opinion that the pattern would return to a snow favorable situation. The positive AO was slight and very short-lived. Were long-range models more on target with pattern recognition that winter, or did Wes & Co have faith in the "El Nino seasonal" progression?

Tracker’s Hitler rant = GOAT. Watched it again and again.

Could be somewhere near Newfane?

This. With my very uneducated eyes, I see this again and again on the global temp anomaly maps; the locations may shift around, but the ratio of red to blue remains the same. Even more depressing is that the anomalies are defined by only the last 30 (already warm) years, if I understand correctly. If I am wrong, please say so - it will give me some hope!

When you say “hand splitter” do you mean one of those hydraulic ones with the two handles? If so, are you happy with it? Been looking at those for a couple of years.

Ahh, more good news!

From what I can glean from these studies with my limited knowledge, they appear to be based on correlations of precipitation with predicted atmospheric warming. However, if the ocean currents change (gulf stream, etc.), wouldn’t that result in substantially altered storm tracks? I’m sure that there must be studies on this (not that I could understand them!).

Rangeley was hit very hard Tuesday evening. Not liking the incoming radar at all. Trying to decide where to move the car to be sure I can get out if more driveway/road washes away.

Go a little east for Parr’s Ridge!

Very generally, I agree with this, but I will toss in a word of caution. We’ve had Covid flying through my workplace for a couple of weeks now. I was an “early adopter”, unfortunately. It was passed along very easily, and one of my colleagues described it as “like flu, the worst sinus infection ever and being hit by a truck all at once”, which aligns with my ongoing experience. Maybe we had a bad strain in our group, as I also have several friends who have had very mild cases. Just a reminder that it is not always just a cold, at least not yet. Stay safe.

Thanks, and be healthy soon.

So you got a flu test and Covid test at the same time? Clinic or doc’s office? Your Covid sounds mild - hope it stays that way!

The Paxlovid dosing schedule has not changed - it’s still a 5 day course.The latest research on Paxlovid rebound suggests that it may be due to a more robust immune response, rather than an impaired one. “Overall, the level of T-cell responses was greater in rebound patients than in patients with early acute COVID-19 who did not experience rebound.” https://www.nih.gov/news-events/findings-suggest-covid-19-rebound-not-caused-impaired-immune-response

It’s been so not close to snowing that they haven’t even brined around here once, which normally happens even when there’s coldish rain forecast. So, at least this year thousands of tons of salt won’t end up in the streams. There - silver lining found.

Not to be confused with Ave Maria.

Looks like a scary ski holiday coming up: bulletproof surface + holiday crowds + limited trail count. Recipe for tragedy and I hope resorts lean on the safety messaging.

Yes, this certainly the case in Rangeley. Together with short-term rentals it’s a “perfect storm” for the housing market.

Yes, my impression as well that market peaked a few months ago. I can see the short-term rental pressures stabilizing somewhat, but at a level that still freezes out the local work force. Maybe the solution is to create incentives for the local workforce to construct rental units so they can benefit directly - "Teachers (or law enforcement, whatever) get a no cost loan to build an VRBO/AB&B unit so they can afford to live in our town!". I'm speaking tongue-in-cheek, I think...

Just speaking for myself, my posts were primarily addressing resort towns, which have a substantially different set of issues from metros.

Short of regulatory intervention, which always makes me squirm, I’m not sure what the answers are. I haven’t seen or heard about any communities which have successfully dealt with it. Saddleback is building employee housing, but that seems like a drop in the bucket of a regional problem.

From what I see in our summer town (Rangeley), the economic benefits of short-term rentals only go so far. The disruption in the housing market caused by short-terms is extreme and the result is that many businesses, especially restaurants, are open fewer days and hours than they were a decade ago due to worker shortages. Even with higher wages, it’s very difficult to find a place to live that is affordable. From what I read, this now the norm in most resort towns. The old market wage/living cost balances no longer apply and it will take time to sort out the new market and find solutions.

Nice, glad you got up to the ridge! It’s funny because especially when you go past the little picnic area it’s not particularly high at all, just happens that there’s nothing obstructing the whole range.

On Eustis Ridge, the “scenic overlook” at the top of the hill is gradually being hemmed in by trees, but still a nice spot. If you continue on the road, dowhill and curving to the left, it doesn’t look very promising but eventually you get to open lots with a few houses and the view is wide open - the whole panorama from Saddleback to Bigelow.

I take issue with calling the high-end amount the “worst case”.

You really have a beautiful place. Whenever I see your location, it makes me think more Greensboro VT rather than Greensboro MD. Only thing lacking is the snow!