frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening. The caveat is it’s Michigan. The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence. It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer. Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep. But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.
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Do the CAMS have the complex developing from the current severe outbreak over N Missouri? If that complex stays far enough south and weakens there should be a return flow behind it. If it expands north overnight and rains all over the place instability will be trashed.
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Dry gust front hopped over MBY then cells filled in to the east while original line fell apart. Rain screwed.
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In have a feeling this line is going to do the GRR split thing that always happens.
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The rotational couplet is slamming the south side of the city. Too broad to be tornadic, but definitely local enhancement to the wind wrapping around.
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Some rotation moving into Chicago. An inflow notch is visible.
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The tops are over 50k, so it is healthy.
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I’d expect it to briefly intensify as it gets closer to the lake, then gust out over the water. The low level shear is not so great here in Michigan, but the CAPE will still be there for some pulses to be strong.
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The SPC has all of western MI under the gun tomorrow evening, but the CAMs are split on how much late night crapvection interferes with returning instability. None of the CAMs are exact on convective placement now so it’s up in the air. Hope I at least get a nice storm this evening if tomorrow turns out to be miss south stank.
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Similar here. I got hit with the narrower part of the line so it didn’t last long. That’s my only complaint. It didn’t rain much. The line got a lot beefier as it moved to the eastern parts of the state.
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Kind of ominous reminds me of the Gaylord 2022 setup, but a little more south. It all depends on whether something can fire far enough south to latch onto the warm front. Best forcing is too far north, but it only takes one cell.
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There’s a pretty good conditional risk for any cells that pop up near the warm front over central Lower Michigan the next few hours. A few cells already trying to go.
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Kind of reminds me of the tornado that crossed I-96 near Weberville on Aug 24, 2023. The bowing line segment swallowed a supercell that had formed out ahead, and it immediately produced a tornado.
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Tornado sirens here. Whatever it is, the circulation passed over, maybe a hair south of me. QLCS protrusion. Got a brief 60 mph gust. Just heavy rain and a few peas now.
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Garden variety precursor showers already had a ton of lightning. Ready 2 get rocked by the main line in the next hour.
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That’s a rain wrapped monster.
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Bloomington WI cell needs a tor warning now.
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Well, Madison just got walloped. Nasty wind driven hail and possible tornado. Waiting to hear from anyone there.
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Madison cell is now wrapping up too. Expect a tor warning soon. Mean looking hail filled RFD. Looks damaging. Edit: Now a cc drop and tornado warning. Could be damaging RFD winds also lofting debris.
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The one immediately behind it now seems to be gearing up to produce.
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Too bad it’s so far from the radar. Can’t really see to the surface. Any chasers on this one?
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Independence cell is now tornado warned.
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The biggest threat at the moment seems to be very large hail. Low level shear needs to increase to get more tornadoes.
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That Iowa cell already looks like its producing massive hail.
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Looks like another miss northwest stank for me tonight.
