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weathafella

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Everything posted by weathafella

  1. weathafella
    How can you determine position? I mean 1994-95 was a robust very east based nino. What tools do you use determine say equally robust but modoki or even full basin?
  2. weathafella
    Why one vs the other? I think it’s a crapshoot but I don’t study it to the extent you do.
  3. weathafella
    George, when the eastern trough is lifting out concurrently with digging off the coast the outcome will be a nothing burger for land areas in the USA. Consider this as a teachable moment.
  4. weathafella
    We'll bring you 1994-95.
  5. weathafella
    And that Denver reading is at the airport already in the high plains.
  6. weathafella
    ORD will still probably get 5-9 with subzero temps.
  7. weathafella
    Move it forward 48 hours.
  8. weathafella
    I thought h5 looked like warmed over dogshit tbh.
  9. weathafella
    We almost never lose power but I'm concerned with lng (to fuel electricity in New England) supply chain this winter and have been considering a Generac. Total peace of mind whether you're home or away from home. Haven't pulled the trigger yet.
  10. weathafella
    I bought a new snowblower when this event looked. like a 1-2 footer. Literally after I got home and arranged delivery date possibilities, the guidance went to crap. My apologies. The good news is I can hold off on delivery until my covid is gone.
  11. weathafella
    I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct?
  12. weathafella
    Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload. The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down. We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times. Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward. The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter.
  13. weathafella
    This one was never more than a long shot. I mean CMC gave a moderate storm for a few days. As others have implied, shoveling fake cmc snow gets old.
  14. weathafella
    If if if....I remember the old saying I'd hear my parents say..."balls said the queen, if I had them I'd be king"
  15. weathafella
    To quote Ronald Reagan....there you go again......
  16. weathafella
    It’s an awful model regardless of it’s so called verification scores. I think if I were forecasting based on what I’m seeing I’d go 5-9 for Chicagoland.
  17. weathafella
    In order for that to work out, the best way would be +12-14 1/1-15 with a presumed -5 1/16-31. Definitely possible but the first half create crocuses up in mid month. An all out torch of +8 wire to wire is a lot tougher.
  18. weathafella
    You made the right choice! You picked the blizzard of 78.
  19. weathafella
    Yeah right before Christmas it rained. The Boxing Day event was really unusual in that it clobbered south coastal TX with like 18 inches, outer banks NC with heavy snow, and then clipped eastern New England. I remember being out for a walk issuing one of my waxing poetic long live winter posts walking on some winding roads with snow clogged trees, roads, houses, me. I loved that winter and the late January blizzard was amazing. It actually was (I think) subzero the morning of the event-snow started around 4pm. I went to brunch with a friend-wife and then 5 year old daughter were in Chicago but I refused to go given the prog and all the snow i would have missed. She was giving me a hard time about missing a 14 incher in Chicago while we were about to get 25-30 here....lol
  20. weathafella
    George, which would you prefer? 984 low stacked near bm with a 1055 hp over Manitoba OR 972 low passing over bm with a 1024 hp over Ontario
  21. weathafella
    2004-05: That was a great winter-snow in November and the December event around Boxing Day. January torched the first half but then all hell broke loose pretty much until April. Too bad you took that as normal!
  22. weathafella
    Lately? Like almost never....even in my youth. 1993-94 was close but nothing got rolling until around a week from now. 1995-96 but then the mega melt. 2010-11 for 6 weeks. Wire to wire? I've seen it in upstate NY but never in areas not prone to LES or upslope. Places far enough north yes-but Hartford, CT? A resounding LOL...
  23. weathafella
    I would take that as a sign that I need to convert.....
  24. weathafella
    People still use SREFS?
  25. weathafella
    Since there tends to be about a 3 month lag, what's the difference? With that said, too much emphasis is put on enso state sometimes. There are many factors-some enso, others bad luck.
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