weathafella

I thought gfs looked fine notwithstanding the details. Better holding HP and colder overall. Remember this is 6+ days away.

18Z GFS pretty much buries all of CT.

Good turnout! Everyone looks great!

That 1992-93 was a great winter-deep pack late January into April.

For that 2.9 over my house-SELL!

Well BOS had 9+ after inches of rain.

Are you sure?

1992 did just that.

Cmc seems to run it up the HRV. Occludes over eastern NY state.

Yeah bigger agreement on tucked system. Still d6.

Gfs rains because it doesn’t really wind up the low and it tucks. I’m just glad we’re getting more consensus of a sizable event.

Slow baking desert. Anthony, the next frame is probably going to be fun!

Euro coming in as a Miller B after all. A bit worried about temperatures but verbatim 925s look good as this gets cranking Friday morning. Long way off still.

Sad to miss this! First I was going to be away but that got canceled when I came down with covid yesterday-nasty case but getting better fast probably thanks to Paxlovid. Have fun!

Kind of crazy given the antecedent and path of the low. But GFS is on an island somewhere.

I should clarify-uncle is a rainstorm for most.

Add uncle to the group going opposite GFS.

GFS management of the H5 vortex north of ME is so different and therein lies the solution difference. GFS brings it over NNE and is slower to scoot it east vs other guidance. We'll keep an eye on this and see but I'm skeptical of that evolution given where the primary is starting. With all that said, one would think the GFS argues for a bigger solution on Sunday/Monday suppressing everything for a period afterwards. So if we get an upside surprise late weekend, consider the GFS as having a bit more validity.

Meanwhile cmc is George’s blizzard

A true blast from the past! I remember when my parents moved to FL in the 70s I went to visit and it was cold-50s for highs. Floridians in snorkel jackets.

I see Kevin’s point. Only in the past 10 years has the frequency of early December snows dropped it seems. With that said, I’ll sacrifice December for February if 2015 is in the cards.

In general, the rule of thumb I follow is to toss the far outlier. But at a week out if the other guidance trends towards it kudos. That block has to be really crazy to suppress the d7 event.

Last nights gfs but consensus is against that now. I’d rather a Miller B though.

EPS looked cold but more suppression potential. GEFS looked more fun in terms of potential snow. Both looked pretty nice though.