weathafella
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Everything posted by weathafella
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But 2017-18 had a white Christmas, very cold week thereafter, ridiculous cold and good snows in early January. It was a February torch and March was very good but 56 was worlds better.
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The most backloaded nina I can think of of those which I’ve live through is 1955-56.
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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2
weathafella replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Buffalo snowing as hard as it could. -
George, you don’t remember the melt down after 2/8/13?
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Who’s counting on a once a century stretch? But hopefully you get the point that it’s too early still to call this winter one way or another. And disappointment? Seriously other than 5 minutes, who would be disappointed besides you?
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Where were we at 12/23/2014?
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Kind of shocked I woke up to power considering the headlines....then again I live in a wind hole-big winds earlier but died down some now.
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JD, it's a bottom line world. qq actually called for something that happened a few weeks ago and also the above normal temperatures. Credit that call. As far as the pope goes, the only actual call he made on the pattern was in the 2nd half of November and he failed. He assumes verification without a glacier in coastal NH by November's end........
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We are probably due for several years with maybe a 12 incher every 3-4 years. We've had them at ridiculous frequency vs the old days.
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How can you determine position? I mean 1994-95 was a robust very east based nino. What tools do you use determine say equally robust but modoki or even full basin?
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Why one vs the other? I think it’s a crapshoot but I don’t study it to the extent you do.
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George, when the eastern trough is lifting out concurrently with digging off the coast the outcome will be a nothing burger for land areas in the USA. Consider this as a teachable moment.
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We'll bring you 1994-95.
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And that Denver reading is at the airport already in the high plains.
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ORD will still probably get 5-9 with subzero temps.
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Move it forward 48 hours.
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I thought h5 looked like warmed over dogshit tbh.
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We almost never lose power but I'm concerned with lng (to fuel electricity in New England) supply chain this winter and have been considering a Generac. Total peace of mind whether you're home or away from home. Haven't pulled the trigger yet.
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I bought a new snowblower when this event looked. like a 1-2 footer. Literally after I got home and arranged delivery date possibilities, the guidance went to crap. My apologies. The good news is I can hold off on delivery until my covid is gone.
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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2
weathafella replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct? -
Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload. The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down. We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times. Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward. The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter.
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This one was never more than a long shot. I mean CMC gave a moderate storm for a few days. As others have implied, shoveling fake cmc snow gets old.
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If if if....I remember the old saying I'd hear my parents say..."balls said the queen, if I had them I'd be king"
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To quote Ronald Reagan....there you go again......
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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2
weathafella replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It’s an awful model regardless of it’s so called verification scores. I think if I were forecasting based on what I’m seeing I’d go 5-9 for Chicagoland.
