weathafella

It’s an awful model regardless of it’s so called verification scores. I think if I were forecasting based on what I’m seeing I’d go 5-9 for Chicagoland.

In order for that to work out, the best way would be +12-14 1/1-15 with a presumed -5 1/16-31. Definitely possible but the first half create crocuses up in mid month. An all out torch of +8 wire to wire is a lot tougher.

You made the right choice! You picked the blizzard of 78.

Yeah right before Christmas it rained. The Boxing Day event was really unusual in that it clobbered south coastal TX with like 18 inches, outer banks NC with heavy snow, and then clipped eastern New England. I remember being out for a walk issuing one of my waxing poetic long live winter posts walking on some winding roads with snow clogged trees, roads, houses, me. I loved that winter and the late January blizzard was amazing. It actually was (I think) subzero the morning of the event-snow started around 4pm. I went to brunch with a friend-wife and then 5 year old daughter were in Chicago but I refused to go given the prog and all the snow i would have missed. She was giving me a hard time about missing a 14 incher in Chicago while we were about to get 25-30 here....lol

George, which would you prefer? 984 low stacked near bm with a 1055 hp over Manitoba OR 972 low passing over bm with a 1024 hp over Ontario

2004-05: That was a great winter-snow in November and the December event around Boxing Day. January torched the first half but then all hell broke loose pretty much until April. Too bad you took that as normal!

Lately? Like almost never....even in my youth. 1993-94 was close but nothing got rolling until around a week from now. 1995-96 but then the mega melt. 2010-11 for 6 weeks. Wire to wire? I've seen it in upstate NY but never in areas not prone to LES or upslope. Places far enough north yes-but Hartford, CT? A resounding LOL...

I would take that as a sign that I need to convert.....

People still use SREFS?

Since there tends to be about a 3 month lag, what's the difference? With that said, too much emphasis is put on enso state sometimes. There are many factors-some enso, others bad luck.

Happy almost birthday! Since you and I were born 20 days apart a 10 year sacrifice of winter may be a forever one for us.

Seems like euro gives 2-4. This isn’t pretty…

Poor chicago weenies but we’ve been there..

Been in you guys shoes many times….good luck Chicagoland. I did discover the best snow weenie screen name on this forum. Congrats imneversatisfied-sums it up for many of us (not me) in New England.

We had a full fledged blizzard with 18-20 inches and huge winds. The Boston area got into a big band that rotated in and sat for awhile.

UKMET is MI centric.

Boxing Day gave 18+ to BOS

It’s more like load blown too early. It’s occluded as it hits the lakes.

I dunno, it kind of looks like an occluded mess as it gets abeam of Lake Michigan…

Looks like the rug may get pulled out from under Chicago weenies?

Thanks! I notice 18z euro showed what seemed to me lake enhancement later. Good luck-wish I could come but I’m home recovering from covid. I did send this to 15 Chicagoland relatives: “Heads up everyone. A once a decade blizzard is likely later this week in Chicagoland. If I didn't have a rebound of Covid we'd be coming to experience it. Any travel after Wednesday probably will need to be rearranged. It's going to be very cold later in the storm-be careful!”

Qpf seems more paltry than I would expect. Trying to figure it out…

Now I hope chicago gets clobbered for my credibility….

Just sent this to my Chicago relatives-15 people. Heads up everyone. A once a decade blizzard is likely later this week in Chicagoland. If I didn't have a rebound of Covid we'd be coming to experience it. Any travel after Wednesday probably will need to be rearranged. It's going to be very cold later in the storm-be careful!

Considering that is 12/30-1/3 it should not be surprising.