WEATHER53

Wild time today just se of Frederick.  Sky turned summertime thunderstorm black between 3:30-4 and moderate rain by 4:15 with 8 easily audible thunder reports, two shook the house, brilliant flashes  of lightning during daylight, and last bolt about 6:15

Ive gone summers where this might have been #1 but more like 2/3. No hail and winds moderate  but not wild, under 30 gusts .

Multiple thunderstorms in Frederick since 4:15 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@WEATHER53 also, the best way you can make your point is to discuss your analysis and show the better way you think is out there to analyze and predict long range patterns.  I want to get better. If there is a better way than the current analog based methods I use I’m open to it. But vague criticism with no productive suggestions is unhelpful. Even if I wanted to act on your posts what exactly can I do?  You’ve provided no tangible suggestions. 

See I’ve provided  that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted 

SO For one last time 

Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements

Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10.  The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply..

Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition 

Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way.  Lord knows plenty buy  into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. 
 

if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and  do right now have my suggestions for alternatives 

 I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science 

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

definitely open to suggestions if you think there are better ways we can attempt to model the atmosphere.

Volunteered the details many times and  as recently as 36 hours ago. Not doing that over and over for people who feel utterly lost without myriads of useless example samples that don’t work and are worse than ever right now.

Being observant and critical does not mandate a solution. That’s a gimmick. 
You have expressed your vote for more of the same 

Lots of offerings of all these indexes  that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem 

43 minutes ago, mattie g said:

6 degrees below normal at Dulles is chilly...and it was chilly region-wide outside the typical UHI areas.

I feel that it's disingenuous to use obs at DCA and BWI as examples to disprove the notion of a day or period being cold.

DCA has artificially in place radiation prohibition

Others don’t 

Low of 25 and currently  42

On 2/18/2024 at 10:15 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Took a ride through the Catoctins today. Still 2-4” of snow OTG up around 1200’+ 

Temp was 45° at my place and got down to 36-38° on top of the mountain. Whole different world up there. Really is beautiful 

We were at Ole Mink Farm in November and I think that’s 1500’ and Our house was 44 and rain Frederick  40 and rain and up there 33 /34 and snow and about an inch but probably snowed 4” worth 

48.5 for a high with low of 26. I still have one full shade strip of snow left. 
46 at 5pm and fell quick to 37 by 8:30 and 35.5 now 

That rock solid frozen clay  soil 100% shaded prevents the melt 

48 for a high and still solid dusting on full shade areas. 

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think it will verify. 

Everyone pretty much knows that it's not going to snow for the next 16 days. That would be much more difficult without models. 

Humans like to be challenged, because that's how they learn best. 

For the most part the majority of model  supporters do not feel change is necessary.  That should have taken another big hit this season 

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That is a massive -PNA (in the Pacific) through Day 16 on the 12z GEFS! 

Only 15-30 days away. It’s become lunacy vs discussion. Reminds me of political sites where wishes and feelings overtake reality and outcome 

That’s a bad direction switch from just 5 years ago 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the 32” the axis has shifted in our lifetime has affected the climate that much. 

Different things are now worth looking into so we can restore prediction reliability 

2nd most drifting I’ve ever observed. 1966  number one 

Other theories need study

Earthquake effects.  Volcanos both above and below sea level. Tsunamis .  Shaking, sloshing and jolting the earth around may have taken a toll -Possible change in earth axis. Looking for more indexes to invent is wrong track 

Half failed already and not looking promising for the second half

This site needs some reality and not smoking the crack pipe of 15-30 days in the future constantly with a system that can’t really get 6-36 hours right. 

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

22F for a low and 7 consecutive hours of 25 or less.  36F currently 

46 for the high and 0.25-0.5 still left in full shade 

Could have created a new thread but restrained.

The Extremely Highly Touted Big  time improvement mid to late Feb is already half way to failure.

45 fucking  days of example samples (aka “models”) showed unwavering high pressure to our north with lows cutting under us.   Now the same snake oil mechanisms   are onto mid March. 

We also over grasp  at every new index theory that comes  along  Too many cooks in the kitchen and way too much micro scoping acting as if getting down to 1 mile  by 1 mile enhances accuracy. It doesn’t, it’s like zooming your camera up too much and everything is blurry. Try more of a binocular approach instead of microscope and you won’t get overly specific errors. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough “close up”  Since  have asked for my suggestions-just gave Another one 

We have been unsuccessful in trying to “mathmetize” our way to betterment so we on our own resources can’t derive a solution. AI can likely develop something unthought of which perhaps combines in some of the successful elements of the antiquated floppy disk ways .

22F for a low and 7 consecutive hours of 25 or less.  36F currently 

35 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What, in detail, is your proposed alternative to model-based forecasting?

See I don’t have to have an answer for my ibservations  to be correct. Not saying you are doing this but that question is basically a model hugger deflection

if you feel status quo is sufficient then that’s just very different from my thinking.  Every occurrent snowstorm this season has been 50% higher or lower than just 24 hours in advance was depicting 

I would venture that AI is going to formulate an analogue occurrent outcome data base from last 1-25 years and get into a more current and correct manner of evaluation, assessment and forecasts. Also ditch the 7+ day stuff, enhance the short term, destroy the floppy discs. 

Getting  uniformly into the 40’s was never a good forecast . I peaked quick today at 38.5 at 2:40pm and now down to 37.5. Winds and cold from snow cover still formidable mid Feb 

What is wrong is we are hamstrung with inefficient tools with a lot of clinging to “it’s all we got” Stop hitting those sites and maybe a message is sent. Plus now we have ninos  not being ninos .  Those examples of possible outcomes wiggled  0-10” within 24-36 hours and even with just 6 hours remaining they missed badly in total qpf  most of which saw 4-6 turn out 1-3” just  4-6 hours from onset. 

38.5 for a high 

Afternoon wind chills in 20s

Still have 1.25” in full shade spots including board 

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Models

I think more than just a few are awakening to and accepting of what I’ve been saying about models for 15 years and especially last 3-5 years.

For most though it’s still insert the floppy disk and look at 60 examples.