WEATHER53

Cold low of 29 and high of 49

our -10 to -15 now come from Mid March thru April 

51 for a high but in shade and with wind it was cold.  In sun and no wind felt like 60.

46.5 for a high so far

Models at least got the cold right even if no precip .  

Wind chills in 20’s.  Been a while 

21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What criteria do you use to identify analogs for your seasonal forecast?  

You must stop responding to every single post I make, 95% of which are not directed to you

its stalking

its creepy

its not going to drive me away 

You are out of line. I have asked for you to cut it out and now I’m telling You-Cut it out.

Moderators-the history is right in  this thread with support from many other threads. This guy is obsessive. Take care of it please and thank you 

Which can’t miss event are we onto now.

Jan 14 2025  looks locked in 

47 minutes ago, stormy said:

Regardless of your theory, I'm not convinced a positive PDO will be the magical elixir for snowfall because the 50's and 60's both witnessed a mostly negative PDO with a brief positive from about 1958 - 1962.  Under mostly negative conditions as we have witnessed since 2020, the 50's witnessed below normal snowfall and the 60's witnessed above normal snowfall.  I don't find any significant impact because of the PDO phase.  

Most index assertions that have blossomed in the last 10 years are theoretical 

Why has the mid Atlantic switched from about 50% As and 50%Bs to about 80% Bs.

20 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yes, having a hobby with a singular desired outcome that you have no control over and is a rare occurrence is pretty sucky. 

Add to it inferior predictive “tools” and it’s game set match 

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Models that can't get 180 hours right in February will 100% be accurate at 306 and definitely snow on March 26.  LFG

As far as snow , models have about a 25% accuracy this winter.

when you and I started in early 2000’s they were about 70% accurate on snow calls.  Then they tried  to become more complicated and turn into microscopes rather than a broader based binoculars and since about 2011 they have been 50/50 with a recent decrease in that over last 3 years. 
They do great for wind events because they don’t start hyping it 2 weeks in advance in an attempt to accomplish what they can’t.  Winter weather models could try that approach 

Utter crap continues 

38 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I literally did not put out my recycling this AM just because of this issue. It can wait a week to be put out.

 

Also, wind is dumb. 

I wedged our plastics in as best I could but its been a chase the rolling soda bottles morning. 

Closing in and holding strength. Just 5-10 more miles 

Flurries here.  Half way down 270 is a batch maybe moderate.  See if it holds and makes it

39F

Peak gust  46 

7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I wasn't here for March 93 but it was great in northeast Atlanta.  Rain/Sleet/Freezing rain changed to heavy snow overnight.  I got around 8-10" with drifting.  Which was enough to shut things down for a few days.  Though it didn't prevent us from getting to the bar a few blocks away, which was a priority as a 20 year old.  

Flooded Florida and gave Maine 70mph winds   I think but not sure, somewhere up there had an 85mph gust. 

Snowing in Frederick 

37 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO:  wake up NW zone crowd; back in the game....under 10 days. 2pm on the 29th temps. this is close....plus total precipitation.  

Looking too juicy

need a modest  miller A and not a whole bunch of moving parts that have to mesh

13 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Mid to late March has become "wintry" the last decade or so.  The below amounts were all measured by me at low elevation in a city.  It used to be pretty routine to stick a fork in winter after the first week of March.   

My point isn't that it will snow.  Just that getting snow in mid to late March actually happens.  We all lived it. 

3/12/22: 1.5"

3/21/18: 4.5"

3/13-14/17: 3.0"

3/25/14: 2.25"

3/16-17/14: 7.75"

3/25/13: 2.25"

And the granddaddy of them all and number one event for me 

March 1993

Lived in Beltsville and got 13” even with rain and sleet mixing in, 40 moh  gusts constantly, 2pm  looked like 15 minutes before dark , record low barometer for me that nothing has been close to since 28.16”

I think DCA got 6.7” and up around Frederick close to 20

15 hours ago, CAPE said:

Most of the depicted looks we have seen this winter have been flawed in one way or another in the LR. Plenty of (probably) unwarranted excitement(me included) about the NAO domain in particular at range, as there were signs over a series of ens runs that it wasn't going to be a sustained legitimate block, but rather more of a transient, weaker feature induced by wave breaking. The guidance also largely duped us with the strength/position of the Aleutian low. That said, we fail plenty with so called 'ideal' patterns, and score in those that are flawed. As you know, weird things can happen as we get into early Spring, but snow in the lowlands has become more unlikely recently, esp in the cities.

Be real careful please  as you are stating that the models performed quite poorly. 

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Serious question. Do you think a STJ gulf storm with the associated heat that would come with it can work this late?  I was thinking our only chance would be a NS wave that amplified extremely far south due to the blocking. Like the 18z AI euro showed yesterday.  I know normally we want stj dominant waves but that’s in winter. This late would the boundary layer be able to get cold enough? 

I think we need a modest low traveling from near Atlanta and ne toward East of  Norfolk .  Not worried about Gulf  effect on Stu because if it’s that juicy and if it gets involved with that we will be 40 and rain.  Can’t be a phase job or transfer either.  Will be really tough if it tries to onset between 10am to 5pm as we would need about -20 departure and that’s too tough.

But. After dark in March it can still snow big time the entire month when the low is right 

If it has the characteristics of a Miller A, organized low pressure moving from GA to off mid Atlantic coast then that works.  Anything else hasn’t and won’t 

13 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Howard you need to take a break from here.

When I seek such advice, please render it

For now cling to your wishes and dependencies and I will continue to not engage in denial. 
 

I’ll add the Fact that you concerns be addressed Not to someone who posts real info 3-5 times per day but rather those averaging 40+ and more Every Day. 
 

I’m telling ya. Largest accumulation event of year still looking like could be April  

From page 47

First-The numerical models will have enough accuracy that errors will no longer be significant 

Second-accuracy and resolution producing crisp, clear and complete  pictures of the atmosphere at all times 

Third-By 2025 the power of computers will have increased 100,000X and will clearly resolve the weather for the (DC) area.

These writers  and contributors were not noobs nor  foolishly  hopeful.  They were up to date and on target with their current situation and where things were headed.

What happened?

Well one thing we see clearly right here-vigorous defense of status  quo. Almost like we are helpless if we try another route.

Probably  one more entry of where the best and brightest of  the time validly thought this science was headed.  What happened????

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

And….if I recall you predicted a colder than average winter and it was one of the warmest ever!  But no one is attacking you over it because long range forecasting is difficult.  Stop being an ass. 

Yeah both our winter outlooks were bad.  My temps terrible although snowfall range of 15-22 not as bad as going big 

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

And yet he understands more about the climate and its trends than most mets and atmos scientists do. 

Much like DT but gentler, he is a great discusser