WEATHER53

4 hours ago, Ji said:

not sure whats happening here....lol...is this what happens to all of us when we get older? we start acting like 9 year olds again

You’ve been stuck at that age since first appearing. But I have grown to love  eternally youthful Ji **d. 

I value your veteraness so I will ask even though the answer I think I know

Were Ryan’s writings just pie in the sky  hopefulness ?

Do you believe model predictions or examples were successful this winter?

Are you looking forward to the same kind of success rate next winter?

Thanks 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That seemed hopeful, no matter how good the resolution gets we don't yet have the ability to measure every variable involved in the equations accurately.  We don't have accurate measurements of every inch of the earth.  Plus...incoming radiation impacts the equation and we can't always know today what that will be in 5 days, predictions of solar radiation aren't perfect either.  No one is arguing with you that the tools are lacking and need to improve...but not sure what the next step is other than continuing to push the envelope the improve where possible one step at a time.  This includes models and non model methods.  We are still improving analog based methods and now including AI in both of these.  

See you dismiss as “hopeful” 

You are not qualified to do that.  You were about 15 when he wrote it and are not a met  nor atmospheric scientist. You are able to provide great detailed discussions with very little forecasting . You are most certainly and ardent model hugger and defender of the failing status quo 

The abilities you assess us as “not having” are largely because they have not been sought due to defenders  of. and monetary concerns about, the preservation of the current operating methods 

Page 46 opening statement in collaboration with atmospheric scientists.  “By 2025 the data  problem for weather prediction will be solved.  Global weather prediction models with 1km horizontal resolution will have reached the limits of predictability. Numerical prediction in the 0-2 day time frame will be essentially perfect”

Bob  Ryan 2002 Almanac as to weather forecasting in 2025

Ryan may have been the best DC ever had. He was No snow crow. When he went big it meant it was gonna snow

These people who wrote this were not hopers and  dreamers. They saw where things were and what could be.  Instead we are still bogged down with what is not working and lately not working with ever increasing inaccuracy .  Model huggers have thwarted  progress.

Ill pull a couple more excerpts but essentially the opening paragraph says it all as to what was correctly and reasonably envisioned vs where we are actually at. 

No matter how many 6 paragraph rebuttals are thrown out, we don’t have the necessary predictive tools. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

PSU cant argue this look. Monster NAO/50 50 low...broad trough

 

Seen it 35 times since mid December 

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He was being optimistic. Nothing wrong with that. I think back then with the advancements happening at that time in models and supercomputing it was fair to think it was possible but truth is after a significant leap in the 2000s we did hit a sort of leveling point where our scientific advancements bumped up against the chaos we can’t account for.  Maybe he underestimated that chaos  

i think a lot of the drop offs here are those like me who have been active in internet weather for over20 years and originally found great excitement in the details provided and potential for great “coming true” of especially winter time model output.  It all over Ryan’s writings as to what appeared to be in place. But it hasn’t happened . Every 5 years or so this board gets  a new model enthusiast who tries to take over and run away those who don’t engage in model worship and who don’t contend that they are accurate and effective. Then they go away. Kinda cycling thru that right now .

So let me  get some excerpts from Ryan’s thoughts and  hopes and post them here .  If you were 10 -15 when he wrote it might want to zip it and learn 

I’m reading Bob Ryan’s 2002 Almanac which has on front cover”Weather Forecasting  in 2025”. I will enter some excerpts later

it is disheartening to read the great hope for accuracy that he foresaw and hoped  for.  90% accuracy day 5 and in.  Not even close to reality.  I would estimate if the dozen or so things specifically identified as likely occurring by now, about one third have come to fruition. The idea that high tech satellites could get start snd stop times down to one hour and accumulations within 5-10% error margins just hadn’t happened. I sense he felt wholesale technological advancements and revolutions would occur. That failed also  

2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

Need to experience this once in my life, 10 feet there? 
 

wonder the frequency of a storm like this. Can someone pull the books? @psuhoffman

Even they are overwhelmed 

We did Tug Hill in Feb 2007 and thst was epic lake effect 7+ feet .It was tough going and closed roads white out. 
This looks bigger 

4 hours ago, katabatic said:

Greetings again from Donner! This epic storm continues. The entire front of the condo building has now disappeared. We’ve been taking turns at an entrance on the windward side, keeping that open (well, kinda) so at least we can get outside. To get this picture, I waded through waist to chest high snow. I have done multiple lake effect chases so I have seen some pretty intense snow but earlier today we had a thunderstorm that easily dropped 4 or 5 inches in 30 minutes. Still no power, no plow and no internet (phone works!) but warm and well fed. What a once in a lifetime experience for someone who loves this stuff. 

And we saw bare asphalt parking lot when you started!

Great coverage 

1966 had 6’ drifts occasionally and constant 3-4 in Salisbury 

This -#2 for me with 2-4’ common. 

Very dewy 

April snowiest month would be insane. Even 2nd snowiest really rare 

Another cold April upcoming?

Low of 29 

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

When the terms blowing and drifting made their way into the forecast, the Mets were on to something. Power has gone out twice but somehow miraculously came back on. No idea how much so far but at least a foot. Fortunately the condo has a facilities team who are keeping the lot passable. Updated P&C totals are insane. 

Ok is that the entrance with closer up picture of bare pavement from yesterday ?

47 for a high and 29 for low.  Impressive 30 degree drop in 12 hours 

It was a B+ winters day.

Thats kinda rough for a winter

Ok well this is over

Consistent temperature errors of 15-30F .  About 15% correct.

We need a new boat so bad. 

8 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Started out around 6 AM PT as rain, had about a hour of sleet and is now heavy snow. This is a pic from the balcony. Visbys alternate between ~1/8 and ~1/2 mile. I don’t have an anemometer but guessing gusts have been in the 40-50 range with a few touching 60. Closest reliable reporting station is Tahoe/Donner (TADC1) and says temp is 31 with similar wind reports. 

You may get a great history with this shot as the trees to the left go under the snow as well as that box and lift apparatus 

On 2/27/2024 at 11:51 AM, WEATHER53 said:

Most all high end predictions don’t work out anymore but let’s see if the Mega Front concept still can .

its my own arbitrary but these are the parameters to qualify around DC . Either/Or does it

13 degree drop in one hour.

18 degree drop in 2 hours 

23 degree drop in 3 hours

28 degree drop in 6 hours 

35 degree drop in 12 hours

42 degree drop in 24 hours 

I believe great November front if 1995 that set off great 95-96 winter qualified on all 6 or 5 of 6 and I can’t remember another that did. 

 

Went from 59 at 6pm Wednesday to 29 at 6am Friday so 30  degree drop in 12 hours which was very  impressive but not quite Mega 

TS force winds at IAD for an hour?

39 gust 59

4 hours ago, katabatic said:

Your yin to my yang. Calm before the storm here. Finally made it to Donner Summit last night - and now looking at a forecast for the ages. The pic is the entrance to my Airbnb condo. Will be interesting to see what it looks like post storm. 

Please, without endangering yourself, gets some video of day and night white out crazy ass wind s*it

From all of us

Me 

25 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yes March 2018 and that was definitely the craziest windstorm I’ve seen IMBY. Did a lot of damage to homes down here.

The tire pile went up in huge flames just west of 95 near Laurel and closed it briefly 

Coming in at 43 for 11pm so 16 degree drop in 5 hours which is impressive but not Mega thus far. 
Scattered twigs and small stuff prevalent. 45mph gust here, 

16 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

La Nina winters always end with an impressive windstorm in late February / early March, so this is no surprise either.

That early March  one 5 or so years ago had like 26 hours of sustained at 40 and 36 hours gusting over 40

i can’t remember but the stats on that are crazy 

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

58 7pm

48.5 8pm 

 

 

46.7 9pm

45 10pm