WEATHER53

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think it’s here 

59 at 6pm 

58 7pm

48.5 8pm 

On 2/27/2024 at 11:51 AM, WEATHER53 said:

Most all high end predictions don’t work out anymore but let’s see if the Mega Front concept still can .

its my own arbitrary but these are the parameters to qualify around DC . Either/Or does it

13 degree drop in one hour.

18 degree drop in 2 hours 

23 degree drop in 3 hours

28 degree drop in 6 hours 

35 degree drop in 12 hours

42 degree drop in 24 hours 

I believe great November front if 1995 that set off great 95-96 winter qualified on all 6 or 5 of 6 and I can’t remember another that did. 

 

I think it’s here 

59 at 6pm 

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The fact it’s been crazy warm lately and the oceans are all on fire might have nothing to do with our snow drought that’s getting worse at exactly the same time as it’s getting warmer. We just can’t know. 

We will Never “know” especially with continuing status quo

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here’s an example. Last nights euro control developed a monster block. 50/50. Tracks a wave under us, h5 through VA, slp off Delmarva and…

We have seen nothing but monster block after block for two months and except for one 7 day run, no such thing set up. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anyone can post anytime they want 

Just can’t and it’s been very evident for a while to all 

Most all high end predictions don’t work out anymore but let’s see if the Mega Front concept still can .

its my own arbitrary but these are the parameters to qualify around DC . Either/Or does it

13 degree drop in one hour.

18 degree drop in 2 hours 

23 degree drop in 3 hours

28 degree drop in 6 hours 

35 degree drop in 12 hours

42 degree drop in 24 hours 

I believe great November front if 1995 that set off great 95-96 winter qualified on all 6 or 5 of 6 and I can’t remember another that did. 

4 hours ago, katabatic said:

We're getting to the point where snowfall amount probabilities
  in the Sierra/northeast CA won't even matter--being replaced by
  certainties. Snow amounts will be so much and difficult to 
  accurately measure due to strong winds producing prolonged 
  periods of near zero visibility, and blowing/drifting snow 
  capable of burying vehicles and making it difficult to locate 
  roads. Even walking outside would not be advised during this 
  storm as a person could quickly become lost or disoriented.

Its going to get chilly here, but this is the AFD for the Sierra Nevada. I'm chasing it. Flying out today at 4 PM to Reno and spending 6 nights up near Donner Pass. This should be the chase of a lifetime. 

 

Please send some pics or vids 

Take a break.  Exhale. Realize others are entitled to some space here. 

34 minutes ago, uncletim said:

I think this is what W53 refers to. 

Thanks 

The 4 pages before this one has approximately 120 responses.  
One guy has 39 

You all can be the judge of what that translates into 

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I looked 3 pages back to now, and found nothing of substance from your posts except “don’t trust day 15 models”

Maybe I missed it, or maybe I didn’t dig deep enough. But if you really want to foster change in this forum in terms of how to do seasonal forecasting, don’t send us digging for that information. We don’t have time for that. Make a standalone thread and link to it instead. 

Yeah thanks for being interested and we do well but it’s there over last several days

i posed questions looking into why clippers snd Miller As have become much rarer. I brought up how good cold air masses dive in and out in 24 hours and don’t stay 2-2.5 days like  when it snowed more . I’ve stated that since gas stoves and cow farts have created much hand wringing, how about outside the box like volcanoes, earth quakes , tsunamis lave flow including below sea , ice melt, on and on. Those things slap Mother Nature and the entire Earth  way more than puny humans.

I’m not just “complaining” (fact recognition really) .  Now, some of my questions may not be pertinent but rather than bombastically model   hug, I pose them. 
There have always been ardent model huggers here and 1 or 2  who feel like they run the place.  We’ve had them before. 
I hope this  answers part of the questions that you legitimately asked about, 

Thanks 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

What were they?

 

Couple pages back. I’m not in here constantly so the info won’t always be on same page 

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This thread is hilarious in retrospect

Honestly it’s embarrassing as it’s number one defect 

Most of the references to “our problems” are index related unproven theories offered up to “explain” why forecasting methods Are Not Working

Start researching  and implementing different methods of approach instead of model hugging as if we are Lost without them.  I’ve made three very detailed snd specific and different suggestions over last 4/5 days and  the responses are general chastisement and model clinging. 
I mean let’s hear from some other than the same 1/2 lengthy responders.

Yes or No answers only to the below. 

1.Do you think models were effective in predicting or assisting in prediction of our winter weather 2023-24

2.Do you have a general satisfaction with them during your.time of involvement with 

But….but…buts means No 

Shouldn’t this be in banter now or at least removed from this weather section?

Thanks 

A broke  tool rarely fixes a broke tool 

32 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Way less time and effort on messing with trying to fix what is now clearly broken

Let the brains start looking into the “Why”.  Why don’t we get Miller  As anymore   I think one this season.

My history is DC used to be at least 50/50 As versus cutters and transfer crap but no more.  More like 80/20 for what’s no help nowdays.  Why?   Start answering that and things like that and may see why our existing predictive methods mostly fail 

 

Why is it now rare for a clipper to cut and even cut and curl underneath of us.  Average winter would happen 2-4 times, great one 5+, lousy one 1-2, recently 0-1.

Why?

Instead of  assailing me for stating the status quo is not a useful tool, let’s find some answers but first gotta drop The Denial 

Cold low of 26 

Way less time and effort on messing with trying to fix what is now clearly broken

Let the brains start looking into the “Why”.  Why don’t we get Miller  As anymore   I think one this season.

My history is DC used to be at least 50/50 As versus cutters and transfer crap but no more.  More like 80/20 for what’s no help nowdays.  Why?   Start answering that and things like that and may see why our existing predictive methods mostly fail 

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

In Laurel and have wet snow and sleet mixing with showers 40F 

It was nice for 7 minutes.  Steady almost moderate snow.in Laurel, dropped to 36. Back on raid minutes later and zip and 40.

5th best event of the season .

34 Kemp Mill now

In Laurel and have wet snow and sleet mixing with showers 40F 

I can accept that winter sucked

What isn’t acceptable is the suckage of how it was continually predicted.  That stems for the models themselves and the off the wall  continual worship here of “15 days away”  The death blow  was the cocky “mid to late Feb we guarantee”. I am hoping maybe this can become a true weather Discussion board again with a decrease in the fantasy gossip.

A hobby has to be mostly rewarding 

90% of this winter has sucked  and has been poorly discussed and poorly predicted .  Reevaluation is underway 

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thats fair. I have no issue with discussion on what might have happened or maybe they don't know.

The problem I have is when METS fall into the JB trap of making overhyped declarative statements like "its going to get cold" "Only a could more weeks until an epic pattern" "things look amazing" etc. They stick to their guns so hard that some belittle the naysayers (like me) who turned out to be 100% correct. We are not even allowed to panic in the panic room, we are just being too "negative" when again, we were 100% correct.

Then when so called "Epic" pattern doesn't materialize. They simply move on. Nothing to see here! It was just an "idea" and not a forecast! Like you seriously believed us LOL? Who even looks at LR forecasts anyway? Who even trusts that?

Then the cherry on top is claiming that they are rooted in "science" when the entire LR thread the last few weeks was essentially a story of fiction. 

Essentially we have broken and dull tools at our disposal.

Active weather sells. All media types know that. They hype it.  Then the hype spreads to “well we know what these indexes WILL do…oh, there’s a new index to try on”

Humility works and bombast declarations don’t.  The pronounced /hyped “mid to late Feb” was a travesty of misdiagnosis and arrogance .  Instead of reality too many wishes are presented as likely occurrent reality.  And the reality never arrives because it’s Always “15+ days away”

I said in December the delaying pattern we were  developing Had to change or we were in trouble . Much crying and chastising over that. 
I was right

We need  a new and different boat to float with. 

Hourlies  been missing and on and off but they are starting to fill the info in and are current now