lee59

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At least the metros can keep their <1" snow days streak going. 

This is kind of a ridiculous stat for NYC. I believe the streak at Kennedy, La Gaurdia and Newark is about half Central Park. They should use the 2 inch and under which is more realistic. Apparently about the only place in  the NY metro area that didn't get an inch of snow was Central Park.

Boston may end up with mixing issues also

Lee Goldberg thinking good chance the city gets over an inch.

It is Tuesday, the storm is Saturday night into Sunday. A wobble off the current track by only 50 miles can make a big difference. Still in the game.

Were 5-6 days out, nobody knows what will happen but there is hope and possibility. At this point, as far as I am concerned, a little to far south or a little to close to the coast means were still in the game.

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning all!  A quick post.  I plan to start a thread for the period Jan 6-10, probably around 10AM. That will encourage all posts for the last half of January to stay in January and we can concentrate energy on what I think will occur between the 6th-10th.  That general idea follows with one graphic. Ensemble support for 2-6" of qpf in that period is in agreement for base 2" in the NYC subforum.  Where its snow its 4+ but on I95 and east, messy or just rain? But stormy for sure. Good thing tides are down.  Wind will be involved.  You may want to go back to the CPC hazards posted this past Friday. Looks pretty good to me.

My base info:

Our very warm December will soon be replaced by snow plowing and shoveling across much of the region along and just west of I95 into the Appalachians. I will set the driveway snow stakes this week (nw NJ)

I expect renewed flooding in parts of eastern PA/NJ and possibly elsewhere in the northeast. When all is said and done by Wednesday night January 10, at least two inches of water equivalent precipiation will have fallen along the entire east coast with isolated 6 inches. This means that snowfalls next weekend and possibly at the start of the warmer storm of the 10th, will at least partially melt.

 

Here's the EPS chance of 4+" for next Sunday. Blues are above 30%.  I think this is a pretty good signal for 7 days in advance. Where it actually ends up??  CMCE is about the same. GEFS is lagging.

Looking forward to the new thread. This period is at least something of interest and potential.

At least the end of the week and coming weekend have potential for some interesting weather. Something to follow, at least.

1.96 here. Also had a wind gust to 32mph this morning.

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Merry Christmas to everyone who is celebrating!

With no snow around or in sight, I hope everyone has a wonderful next few days and can spend and appreciate the time with loved ones.

Hopefully things improve after the holiday to keep an eye on for New Year’s and beyond.




.

Thanks same to you and all. Actually well north and west getting some snow and freezing rain tonight. WWA in Sullivan and parts of Ulster.

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecast high was 44…

Ok. I haven't been paying that close attention but I thought the city stations were calling for 50 today, a few days back.

Didn't get as mild as I expected today, high 43, pretty much normal.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was mostly mid 20s to low 30s due to cloud cover.  LI had more radiational cooling

Yea I did get down to 23 before cloud cover stopped the drop about 1 A.M.

Looks like this year will be Central Parks mildest yet.

Never got below freezing in the city last night, meanwhile many suburbs double digit colder.

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the worst since 1980, sea ice is equally as bad. Our source region is going to continue to be a huge problem as is true cold air as @NittanyWx has cautioned over and over 

I guess the source region is looking pretty good for the other side of the globe, where the cold weather seems to be.

Heat island apparent tonight as temperatures in suburbs approach the teens in some places, NYC still in mid 30s.

21 my coldest of the season. Westhampton airport 17 Brookhaven Labs 19.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Who knows what normal means anymore with our snowfall when NYC goes from the snowiest 5 year period to the 7th least snowiest 5 year period in the same 10 year period. 

 

Maximum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	209.4	2014-01-01 through 2018-12-31	0
2	205.2	1914-01-01 through 1918-12-31	2
3	204.9	1892-01-01 through 1896-12-31	3
4	204.3	1893-01-01 through 1897-12-31	3
5	202.1	1944-01-01 through 1948-12-31	0
6	199.4	2013-01-01 through 2017-12-31	0
7	197.0	1871-01-01 through 1875-12-31	0
8	193.4	1872-01-01 through 1876-12-31	0
9	193.0	2010-01-01 through 2014-12-31	0
10	191.3	1895-01-01 through 1899-12-31	3

 

Minimum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	66.1	1928-01-01 through 1932-12-31	0
2	66.2	1927-01-01 through 1931-12-31	0
3	71.9	1951-01-01 through 1955-12-31	0
4	72.2	1950-01-01 through 1954-12-31	0
5	74.8	1988-01-01 through 1992-12-31	0
6	77.0	1949-01-01 through 1953-12-31	0
7	77.7	2019-01-01 through 2023-12-31	12
9	79.4	1997-01-01 through 2001-12-31	1
10	81.8	1973-01-01 through 1977-12-31	0
-	77.7	1971-01-01 through 1975-12-31	0

 

I guess it only makes sence after the snowiest 5year period , we would have a snow drought. 

Peak gust here 51mph. Rain 1.02 inches

.02 here so far, peak gust 24mph

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

GFS forecast soundings only have a weak inversion in place out in Suffolk. So stronger convection could potentially tap the 950 mb winds which are around 63KT or 72 mph in gusts near the shoreline. Even the surface sustained winds are around 40KT or 47 mph. 

 

That is similar to the event about 3 weeks ago. Jones Beach was reporting sustained of 46mph for about an hour or two.

Got down to 29 here and now up to 30. So perfect conditions not panning out at this point.

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m at 29 here currently, northern border of the NJ pine barrens down in Ocean Co.  

Gabreski Airport (near Long Island pine barrens) at 26 degrees at 6PM. 

Brookhaven National Labs already down to 27 not sure about Westhampton pine barron area. They could really drop, and again, if conditions stay perfect.

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

With the forecast calling for winds out of the SW, I don't see us getting anywhere near the coldest night of the season.

I realize my quick drop in temperature this evening to 30 degrees, could come to a quick halt if conditions don't stay almost perfect. We shall see.