lee59

If conditions stay right tonight, this could be the coldest night of the season in many suburbs.

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time on record that suburbs like Westchester couldn’t drop below 28° during the first 12 days of December.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 12	Missing Count
1	1998-12-12	36	6
2	2015-12-12	29	0
-	1953-12-12	29	1
3	2023-12-12	28	0

I find it a little funny when you here about a quick arctic airmass moving in and the forecast low for the city is 31

I guess it was overcast over night. My temperature has gone from 33.3 an hour ago to 28.3 now.

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one bright spot with near record warm CONUS December patterns is lower heating bills.

 

This is why, among other reasons, why most people in our area have no problem with a warming climate.

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Prepping for a likely (70% chance in my mind) topic issuing either this evening or Wednesday for the period late Sunday the 17th through Wednesday morning the 20th. Looks to me like a sizable nor-easter with marginally cold enough air (850 MB and surface temp ensembles) nearby to the north and northwest for snow potential at least down to the i84 corridor inclusive of nw NJ and maybe trickling down to the CT coast at the storms end.

But the main story probably is rainfall potential... I've added the EPS probability of 1" or greater rain in 24 hours centered Monday the 18th.  This event could put out isolated 4" rainfall for some part of our area.

Wind gusts will be a concern but as most have noted, model guidance tends to be a touch high... still I would not rule out a wind hazard for the coast.

For initiating this topic... prefer to give the ensembles at least another 12 - 24 hours to agree a little more and for the EPS to be consistent (GEFS-CMCE not quite as far west and that is my concern). No matter this southern system will be a big wet one for at least Texas, and probably the Gulf Coast, and in my opinion up the southeast coast to our area.

Ensembles probably not holding on to the upper low long enough as we go into the middle of next week.

This won't be a big deal if qpf remains at or below 1" and little or no snow... but potential exists for something significantly larger as a nor'easter.  Compared to this past storm... way too early for me to express confidence one way or the other.  Depends on eventual track of the upper low so I have to wait... it's about potential and I think this event will have plenty of interest up here in a few days.   Can it get up here as per the EPS or does it get deflected out to sea?

 

Thanks for this update, this is looking more interesting this morning.

Looks like the models trending a little chillier over the next week or two.

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We can't buy a big cold outbreak anymore . Winter is dying on the east coast.

 

All though it is nothing to write home about for them, many areas in northern New England have had mostly snow covered ground since around Thanksgiving.

You know our weather is not what we want when all we talk about is the past and the future. 

3.84 inches of rain here, good call by NWS. Wind another story.

It seems wind events are difficult to forecast. This wind event, similar to others, was hyped with watches and advisories that never materialized. Then you have the one from a few weeks ago that had advisory and warning criteria and nothing was issued. I don't recall even seeing wind reports the following day from that event. It is almost like we cannot admit when we make a mistake.

As far as snow goes, an over performer in the DC and Baltimore areas. Many places getting about an inch. Would be nice to see it happen here.

Looking at radar and observations, looks like the front is thru Philly and approaching Trenton.

Jones Beach right on the water gusting to 37mph. Fire Island gusting to 45mph is the highest I have found.

Up to 2 inches of rain here and coming down hard. I am beginning to think the wind is going to be a bust on the low side, see what happens during the night.

Heavy rain, 1.65 inches. No wind to speak of, highest gust 25mph.

Jones Beach reporting sustained 23mph and gusts to 34mph.

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Gonna be elevation dependent. Below 1000' up in BGM area will prob see 1-3" 

Yea I took down the post and you make a good point. That is probably why the difference in forecasts and warnings. Some folks live in the valley and others on the mountain top.

Just now, psv88 said:

The high winds will be Suffolk and east. Nassau only has wind advisory 

Not much different in the forecast for my area and the Islip area. 50mph gusts forecast here and 55 in Islip

peak gust here still just 23mph. You can here it in the trees at times.

1.3 inches of rain here, wind picking up a little, gusting to 22mph

Up to 1.01 inches here. Still just breezy.

Up to .56 of rain here, still not much wind gusting to 16mph

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°.

 

Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

That does sound more reasonable. Where do you find this data?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

I only did the last 10 yrs not 12. That is how I got 40.14. So yes if you go back some 130 yrs. it definitely is substantially more mild. I was only comparing to what most folks have gone thru during our life time.

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I really think you guys dig into the nitty-gritty a little bit too much. December is just 5 to 10° warmer than it used to be. the normals kind of skew it because it’s over a 30 year period, but that’s where we are at now. i’m looking at those mid 40s Christmas week and that’s pretty normal now. plus 5-10. That isn’t even a torch anymore.

I think 5-10 degrees is a little much. For example during the 1990s some 30 years ago, December averaged 39.5 and the last 10 years, December has averaged 40.14.