lee59

Judging by recent model runs, the offshore track looks to be off the books. Looks like some significant impacts for our area. The coast is taking a beating with erosion, not a good sign so early in the season.

53.2 here this morning

Parts of the Catskills already dipping into the upper 40s.

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More and more we are seeing these major warm season flash flooding events occur without defined tropical systems. The warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so tropical systems aren’t required. These days all that is required is a weak low or stalled out front. 
 

Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS

Fairfield County... Stamford 7.45 in 1220 PM 09/13 AWS
 

Essex County... MONTCLAIR 8.51 in 1210 PM 09/13 CWOP

Those numbers could definitely cause some flash flooding

.70 here

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lows in NYC run cooler than the surrounding urban sites like LGA and EWR. So the tree growth is probably lowering the minimum temperatures also to some extent. In the old days the NYC minimums would average closer to or warmer than those sites before the excessive tree growth.

Data for June 1, 2026 through September 13, 2026 Average Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	70.2
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	70.0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	68.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	67.6
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	67.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	67.3
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	66.7
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	66.6
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	66.3
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	66.3
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	65.7
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	65.3
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	65.2
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	65.1

 

Data for June 1, 1977 through September 13, 1977 Average Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	67.6
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	67.4
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	66.8
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	66.2
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	66.1

I would think tree growth would raise minimum temps. I find at my house when the temperature reading is in the open I get good radiational cooling but under tree growth readings are higher.

Looks like many along the Ct. coast have received some 3 to 6 inches of rain

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

About 4 inches here so far but it's starting to lighten up thankfully

Yea it looks like the worst of it is now to your east. 

Ct. coast looks to be the bullseye so far, not to much here, .27 of an inch.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/climatecard

Above summer stats locally.

As bad as a hurricane hitting the southeast can be, without them the southeast does not get enough precipitation. 

Possibly the most unusual path of a hurricane to hit New England was Esther in 1961. It hit Nantucket and headed east over the Atlantic only to make a large loop and come back to cross over the Cape and into Maine.

Things can run in streaks. Florida had no hurricanes for a record 10 years in a row from 2006-2015. Plenty since then. Long Island has not had a direct hit in over 40 years but the 1950s into early 60s were very active. I believe New England has had only one direct hit in the same time period, hurricane Bob in the early 90s. This could also be the second year in a row without a hurricane hitting the United States, many are hoping that to be the case.

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (1993)
NYC: 99 (1929)
LGA: 95 (1993)
JFK: 93 (2015)


Lows:


EWR: 51 (1967)
NYC: 50 (1893)
LGA: 54 (1967)
JFK: 62 (1967)

Historical:

1815: A powerful hurricane made landfall near Swansboro, NC. Damage was extensive at Onslow with great loss of life. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut. The hurricane produced a record tide at New York City. An account from the Norfolk Herald described the storm as such..... From half past 11:00 until half past 12:00, so great the fury of the elements, that they seemed to threaten a general demolition of everything within their reach. During that period the scene was awful. There was the deafening roar of the storm, with the mingled crashing of windows and falling of chimneys, while the rapid rise of the tide threatened to inundate the town. The continuous cataracts of rain swept impetuously along darkening the expanse of vision and apparently confounding the heaven, earth and seas in a general chaos; together with now and then a glimpse caught through the gloom, of shipping forced from their moorings and driven with rapidity, as the mind might well conjecture in such a circumstance to inevitable destruction.
(David Ludlum)
The following is an account of what happened next from Howard Pyles, writtings: "...then a dull roar came nearer and nearer, and suddenly a solid mass of wind and rain and salt spray leaped upon the devoted island with a scream. Great pines bent for a moment, then, groaning and shrieking, were torn from their centuried growth like wisps of straw and hurled one against another; houses were cut from their foundations and thrown headlong; and then a deeper roar swelled the noise of the tempest, and a monstrous wall of inky waters rushed with the speed of lightning toward the island. It struck Assateague, and in a moment half the land was a waste of seething foam and tossing pine trunks; and the next instant it struck Chincoteague, and in an unbroken mass swept away men and ponies like insects; rushing up the island, tearing its way through the stricken pine woods."
(Barnes & Truitt)
At Pungoteage, a ten foot storm surge led to "unexampled destruction". Damage spread north with the storm into New York and New England over succeeding days. It was considered one of the most violent hurricanes on record... with damage totaling $200,000 in Virginia. Five drowned at Chincoteague.
(Ref. for Long Island Hurricane of 1821)

 

1821 - A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut. The hurricane produced a record tide at New York City. (David Ludlum)

1821: Known as the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane, this storm ripped up the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast September 3 and 4 – coinciding with Labor Day (before the holiday was established). 

 

1834: A strong hurricane made landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina. 

1909: 48 °F in Washington, DC the first temperature of the season that was below 50 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

1930: A Category 4 hurricane devastates the Dominican Republic on this day. This storm killed more than 8,000 individuals, which is it the fifth deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. 

1933: On this date through the 4th, there was extensive property damage on Florida's east coast from Vero Beach to West Palm Beach due to a landfalling hurricane. A few houses were destroyed and a number blown off their blocks. More than four million boxes of citrus were blown from the trees statewide. The property loss ran into the millions. Two deaths were attributed to storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1953 - The temperature at Erie PA reached 99 degrees, and Stroudsburg PA established a state record for September with a reading of 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Denver, CO, received 4.2 inches of snow, their earliest snow of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1970 - During the early evening hours, in the midst of a severe hailstorm at Coffeyville KS, a stone 17.5 inches in circumference and nearly two pounds in weight was recovered. It was the largest measured hailstone in U.S. weather records. Average stone size from the storm was five inches in diameter, with another stone reportedly eight inches in diameter. (David Ludlum)


1972: Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West before recurving to the northeast. The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego, CA with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains from this day through 9/6. This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California. This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1974: A strong Canadian air mass brought an early taste of Autumn extending the Plains to the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley. The earliest freeze on record in Sioux Falls, SD recorded their earliest freeze on record when they dropped to 31°. Other record lows included: North Platte, NE: 26°, St. Cloud, MN: 27°, Bismarck, ND: 28°, Valentine, NE: 30°, Aberdeen, SD: 31°, Huron, SD: 31°, Duluth, MN: 32 °F.(Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)


1977: A 19-year-old hitch-hiker was struck and killed by lightning while leaning against a metal road sign on the southbound ramp of I-81 in Staunton, VA . Another person was injured. Witnesses said that there was no rain falling at the time and described the lightning bolt as having come "out of clear skies". In actuality, it came from a nearby thunderstorm. Also on this day in Poquoson, near hampton, Virginia around 6:20 PM, a man was struck and injured outside his home. During the period 1995 through 2000, there were seven lightning fatalities, 54 injuries and $6.5 million in damage, according to Storm Data. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

 

1979: Hurricane David made landfall in south Florida as a Category 2 storm. It caused 15 deaths in the US. Hurricane David was a Category 5 over the Dominican Republic were over 2,000 people died. 

 

1987 - Temperatures dipped into the 40s and 50s for morning lows across much of the eastern half of the country, with eleven cities reporting record lows for the date. Pellston MI tied Gunnison CO for honors as the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Smoke from forest fires darkened skies in southern Oregon and northern California. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sixteen cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 89 degrees at Stampede Pass WA and 116 degrees at Redding CA established records for the month of September. Readings of 98 degrees at Spokane WA and 100 degrees at Yakima WA equalled records for September. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Nebraska during the day and evening. Evening thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Valentine and Gretna, and produced baseball size hail at Lewellen. Thunderstorms in Arizona produced 2.20 inches of rain in forty minutes at Green Valley, and wind gusts to 60 mph. Eight cities in Texas and Florida reported record high temperatures for the date, including Victoria TX and San Antonio TX, each with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002: A prolonged summer drought in southern Illinois gradually worsened, becoming severe by early September. Crop loss estimates totaled around $53 million dollars. The corn crop, which was especially susceptible to the combined effects of heat and drought, took the biggest hit. The remnants of Tropical Storm Isidore provided much-needed heavy rainfall late in September. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2007: Key West, Florida: Key West records a record high reading of 95°F. This event is the first occurrence of a 95 °F or higher reading since August 1957. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2016: Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall in Florida on Friday, September 2, 2016 at 7:26 PM - as a Category 1 hurricane early Friday, leaving one dead and causing severe coastal damage in its wake. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in the state since Wilma struck 11 years ago. It was only a Cat-1 hurricane but the rain in NC set the stage for a Major Flood with Matthew in October.
58,000 without power in Hampton Roads, Virginia The main problems in the Virginia Beach area was flooding

I was in Melbourne, Florida when Hurricane David passed over head. Only hurricane I was in the eye.

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so in ten years we might get a winter that's average. wow

A very telling chart. The thing is, most people would probably be happy to see it.

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I swam in Phoenix when it was 117. Not enjoyable at all. Water was hot, no shade, went back inside after 10 minutes.  

Don't move to the desert. 

Thundering here for past hour or two, only .10 inch of rain.

Was in northern Europe this weekend and had one of the most powerful storms I have seen in a while. It was equivalent to our Nor'easter. Barometric pressure below 29.00 inches and heavy rain with wind gusts between 40 and 70mph for hours. Numerous trees and branches down and numerous power outages.

2.87 inches of rain here.

14 days here of 90 plus.

Looked threatening but basically a thundershower here, .20 inch of rain, 26mph wind gust.

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Quick 0.08" on the sea breeze boundary. These high dewpoint days usually pop some sea breeze storms in the center of the island. 

I could see that developing just to my north and heading east

1.65 here so far.

.89 here

.02 here so far.