lee59

I have maybe a 1/4 inch of slop. Still a rain snow mix

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Somewhere between an inch and half inch in lynbrook and a 50/50 mix between snow an rain

You got more than me.

Up to 34 here and snow is mostly rain now. 

Have a coating here but the snow coming down is almost white rain. 33.7 degrees. Wind has switched to the east.

33.8 and still snowing here.

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Booked it... thank you!

No problem. 

Snow has picked up in intensity here, starting to stick. 35.7 degrees

At least the wind is still light and more NE than E. 

First flakes starting here, temperature slowly falling, 36.4. 

Should be plenty of snow in the Catskills tonight, Hunter Mountain Webcam. Already snowing and 21 degrees.

https://www.huntermtn.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

Nothing happening here, 36.7 degrees wind ENE but light.

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

That is what has been happening out here.  It’s been snowing three hours here and there is all of 1” OTG.  Still waiting to see if we get the thump.

It would be nice if you can get a thump of snow before any potential changeover.

Unfortunately it does not look like an initial heavy thumping is going to happen. Looks more like a gradual increase in intensity.

10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Please keep us posted on webcam at 7PM and 9P.  After that's for sure all rain til maybe 10A Sunday when its too late. 

Haven't see PHL and BWI reports but my guess at least 0.1" there---just via sleet. 

Columbus Circle webcam for anyone interested:

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/columbuscircle/?cam=columbus_circle

According to Columbus Circle webcam, snow has started in Central Park.

Overcast here for the past few hours. 33.5 degrees.

After a low of 23 now up to 33 with a light east wind picking up.

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Got a place booked up in Saugerties NY tonight. Leaving the island around 1. Hopefully it’s worth it. 

 

Now that the warm air may be going a little further inland, I think the Kingston-Saugerties area could be the bulls eye. Far enough north to stay snow and far enough south to be in the heavier bands. Probably double digit totals.

Already in the upper 20s here. If the precip came in early tomorrow, would have a chance for some accumulating snow here but coming in late afternoon diminishes chances a lot.

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I didn't say NYC would get 2-3" as a forecast - I was only talking about the 12Z GFS verbatim likely leading to 2-3" OTG in Central Park.  

OK, my misunderstanding. Hopefully what the GFS is indicating turns out to be true, but I am not very hopeful.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That's what the href shows. A general 1 to 2 with 2 to 4 just nw of 95 through 0z Sunday so would be a decent thump between 4 and 7pm

To me that seems like a problem for coastal locations. I would think and easterly wind all day will have temperatures well above freezing by late afternoon.

If it is a early thumping of snow that is what the coast needs, then we better hope for an early start of the precip.

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I know, I said that.  I included the 10:1 map, as that shows how much snow is "falling" to illustrate that it's not "mostly rain."  Kuchera shows about 2" and I think that's underdone on the model verbatim, as column temps are below 32F on the model until the surface and given decent intensity (once snow starts accumulating, subsequent snow is not affected much by above 32F surface temps, as the actual surface is now 32F snow/slush), even NYC will accumulate maybe 2-3" from that 4.3" of snow falling.  That's my informed opinion.  I'm  not a met, but I guarantee you a PhD in chem eng'g and 30+ years of doing hard science including a lot of work in heat transfer and physical chemistry phase transitions (crystallizations and melting - with several patents in the field for organic molecules) and a lifetime of observing high intensity snow accumulating when people said it wouldn't (think most March/April storms), means a little bit.  This is not really a "meteorology" question (assuming the model is correct and no warm nose aloft, just above 32F at the surface), but a physical chemistry/rate question.  

I hope your correct with NYC getting 2-3 inches. Out here I would be happy with about an inch of snow.

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's incorrect.  Plenty of snow "falling" - it's just not clear how much of it will accumulate with 34-35F surface temps; during the thump part, NYC looks to be below 32F (barely) for the whole column, which is good.  So verbatim there will be snow and if we can avoid a warm nose aloft (who knows?) I think a few inches (not the 4.3" on the 10:1 map below) is likely - as per the GFS, not a forecast.  

This looks way over done.

It looks like I will be focusing soon on next weeks event as this one is turning into a big nothing here. Strong wind event next week looking more interesting. Good luck to those expecting snow.