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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    American modeling completely caved to the Euro last night on the MJO. I still think there are some feedback issues on modeling and that there will be some variability in the LR pattern, at least more than is modeled on ensembles. However, I can remember plenty of years at UT when I was walking to class in a t-shirt during January and February. So, non-winters and warm winters do happen at this latitude. This has every semblance of one of those 1990s winters that were very warm...On the bright side, once every 2-3 years, there were bigs snows and/or bad winters. Even during warm winters, there were usually time frames where it could snow. Looks like there might be some sort of pattern shake-up later this month. Again, that would fit with the duration of this warm pattern that developed during early December. As I noted in June, if the MJO continues to fire...going to be an ugly pattern setting up shop. The main way we get out of this is with Atlantic blocking. On some modeling, one can see another way as well. The western trough lifts north around January 20th-ish and then sets up shop in a retrograding fashion over the Aleutians. Cold air bellies under the easter ridge and the pattern changes or relaxes for 7-14 days. However, though there are signs that indeed the trough will be in the East at the very end of the month...but that itself may be temporary if the MJO cycles back into 4-6 which there are signs of on the EMON. The Euro model is absolutely schooling the American suite right now. I do look a the GFS as it can show pattern changes. However, it really has not been correct very often since late November in the d8-15 range. I will continue to comment about it, but with the idea that the GFS can't be trusted at all in the LR. So, not much we can do. Warmth and likely record warmth of long duration is likely on its way. We will "hope" for a flip, but with full understanding this is going to take weeks and not days to get out of. While AN temps do makes sustained snowy patterns very unlikely, it can still snow even in a warm pattern. I think for this winter the best we can do is hope for a pattern change or relaxation during late January or early February. Very few despise a warm January more than me, but looks like that is the card we have been dealt barring a major change in modeling which still could happen. Those flips have happened in the past. Always important to remember that modeling doesn't control natural factors, but just tries to extrapolate the pattern forward just enough and produce a useful product. So, it is always possible that things can change, and we will watch for those. I do think this year we see the November pattern return, but with the understand we could do a January/February 2019 redux. This is why I hate Nino winters. They are late arrivals to the party and then sometimes...they just don't arrive. It would not shock me to see the fall pattern repeat...record warmth followed by a flip. Indeed, as John noted and the record lows for TRI indicate, 1955 did have cold later in the winter. As for rain, I think TVA sees it. They have been sending plenty of water downstream IMBY(I see the Holston multiple times per day) which I usually see prior to rainy time frames. Cherokee Lake, where my in-laws live, is sitting about its normal low pool for this time of year. So, looks like there is plenty of room up this way to story the excess rainfall forecast. Up until this week, urban streams had been running low and clear. And there is a reason this entire system of dams has been put into place...the TN River Valley is known fro incredible flooding(and droughts). Happy New Year to everyone. Wish I had better news, but plenty of time for outdoor stuff.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The very end of the GEFS has much AN heights in most of AK with that trough underneath. I suspect that trough would get kicked eastward if real. Keep that eastern pac ridge pushing east as a trend.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS is the way to mute the warm-up. It has done. this four of the last five runs. Needs some support. The 0z GEFS is still locked into a nearly stationary and counter-intuitive stationary hemispheric pattern and give little support to the operational.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC has shifted the eastern Pac ridge east as well. Just takes a minor adjustment to get that cold into the front range and let is spread eastward. Even if the mean pattern is an eastern ridge, periodic cold shots could make the pattern workable or at least not a full torch.
  5. Carvers Gap
    See, that is what is so frustrating with the ensembles. They just stop the entire hemispheric pattern around Jan 10th. The preceding pattern has not been one that is nearly stationary for the entire Western Hemisphere. I think the key is to get that western displaced easter Pac ridge...budged eastward to where its influence is such that cold is at least forced down the front range. I can just about tell if the pattern is going to be seasonal or a torch based on those little vortices spinning south out of Alaska. If there is room between the eastern Pac ridge and the coast, they go there and build a monster ridge here. If they get pushed across the mountains, trough here. Sounds crazy after watching a locked pattern for several weeks, but the pushing back of the eastern ridge in time is probably depending on something as razor sharp as that.
  6. Carvers Gap
    So, on this run we fight off the ridge out to 300...It is the GFS for sure, but very good run in terms of how important it is to have the cold cross into the front range. It will the spread east. If it cuts west it digs that pocket trough out West. Only need that EPO ridge nudged eastward about 300 miles from 18z and it forced a second shot eastward.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Quickly reverts back to an eastern ridge by 270...but that is an extra cold shot. Also would push back the warm-up by a day to the 12th...later than that due to the cold that was discharged. 500 is AN...surface is not yet, but will
  8. Carvers Gap
    Eastern ridge replaced with a shallow trough at 258.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Probably going to still get a similar outcome as previous runs, but it does have another cold front at 240 and a piece of the PV that broke off and is head into the upper end of the trough in Canada.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, much different run...similar to 18z Monday.
  11. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has moved the EPO ridge at 198 to the east.
  12. Carvers Gap
    This is what I don't buy. Go to Tropical Tidbits. Go to the North Pole view of the 12z GEFS. Switch to 500 heights anomaly. Loop it. See all of the global wave activity until just under d10. Then it is like the brakes are put on the entire northern hemispheric system. It literally freezes. Just does not look realistic. Is it model feedback or do we see the entire hemispheric pattern lock-up?
  13. Carvers Gap
    What I can't tell is if they are just backing-off what would have been an extreme pattern or if there are some colder solutions working in. I am really pulling for a pattern flip just so some of the new folks can see one go down. Unlikely...but weren't they all when it was darkest?
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS control drops an all out trough into the middle third of the country and is heading east at the end of the run. The GFS has done something like this for three straight runs. Makes me think we are going there is more potential for variability than the ensembles project in the LR. It is one of these deals that JB mentioned in his video a few days ago. He state rarely does a cold air mass go straight down the spine of the Rockies. As it heads south it usually cuts west or east of the mountain chain. When you watch these small vortices drop out of AK, about 60% of the time they cut west. But if one cuts east of the Rockies, it spread eastward and deepens the trough. Something to watch. Probably a slam dunk warm wx pattern...but once in a blue moon, a player misses a dunk.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah. You know it was crazy how dry it got IMBY during September. My yard still has places that are just cooked. Other than that, reasonably good rains. A lot of my fall greens are still alive...kale, turnips, Brussel sprouts, lettuce, and mustard. They were planted in extreme heat, have been snowed on twice, have seen the teens for temps, and 90s. Hardy plants!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Something I have been watching...the forecast trends at 500 on TropicalTidbits. Pretty interesting. MJO looks less than favorable today(probably shouldn't us the real adjective). The Euro does loop back into the COD after warm phases and then it maybe it tries to go back again? LOL!!! Anyway, if you want some hope...the 12z GFS is serving it up.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I know right. A warming trend in relation to temps that are already record highs! If there is ever a time for the Euro/EPS to be wrong...about right now would be good timing!
  18. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS holds solid compared to previous runs. No surprise...
  19. Carvers Gap
    Well, that is a different run from the 0z GFS...we can live with that out to 312. A cooler (than the previous day) overnight run? Wat?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Check that. January 4-11 looks like the window..
  21. Carvers Gap
    And so to start(just completely ignoring the torch after), looks like the 18z GFS shows a chance for winter weather on Jan 9th and/or 11th. Looks to me like that window is decent relative to what precedes or follows it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    And FTR, there are two record lows from 1955 in February and one for March. Oh, why not!
  23. Carvers Gap
    After beating the warm drum for most of the month, the pinnacle of that warmth(so far) was a whopping and almost mind boggling +26F AN yesterday. If one looks at modeling, really no end in sight. Model are locked-in to a rather anomalous pattern after January 10th which could potentially see a number of record highs threatened or broken which includes the all-time record high of 79 for January at TRI. The pattern being depicted is probably close to the warmest ridge I have seen modeled regarding event duration and intensity during recent winters. One or two day quick hitters are not uncommon. However, the pattern between Jan10-20 is one that will feature early summer time temps if they verify. I think at the very least a period of 7-10 days of incredible warmth is probable between January 11-21. If the weeklies are correct, we may get a brief correction to AN(instead of much AN) near the end of January. And if the Weeklies are correct, a sustained winter pattern looks improbable at any point. Do I think it is correct? I am 50/50 on that prospect. I see nothing on modeling or on any indices that says anything but incredible warmth for the first 2/3 of January at least, excluding the January 4-11 period(edit) during the second week of January. AO: warm NAO: warm PNA: warm PDO: warm MJO: very warm AMO: warm SOI: warm It is now likely that DJF will finish AN(if not in record territory) as the first half of winter will be virtually impossible to erase such AN temps. Until the fourth week of January, I think chances are exceedingly slim. I hope we look back on this post next year and remark how huge of a pattern flip we had...but I am not holding my breath. At this point, I am assuming the base pattern is AN to much AN. And at this point, I am just going to be hunting brief cold downs and potential snow events attached to those. So, if you think I am promoting a cold pattern...I am not. I am just tired of talking about warmth. Other than November, this pattern has been a torch since early September. Just going to try to find some cold in otherwise very warm pattern...first chance is next week. So lack of upcoming discussion(about warmth) by me doesn't mean it isn't going to be warm. Increased discussion about a particular even shouldn't be interpreted as cold coming on a grand scale. And I will end with this...I just have a hard time believing a pattern move quite progressively(from now until January 10th) and then seeing the atmospheric pattern "freeze" ad nauseam in the northern hemisphere. Looks like a feedback problem, but at this point I have very few ideas which counter the upcoming warmth. The only nugget is HM is talking about a positive AAM. That could dislodge that Pacific ridge. Other than that...not too many signs pointing to sustained winter weather prior to January 20th. Not going to say we have a fab February either as the CFS hints at. But in reality, February and late January might be our only hope for winter events.
  24. Carvers Gap
    TRI is now +5.3 virtually guaranteeing another AN JFM as those departures are only going to get worse for the winter season. Yesterday's high of 74 was part of a day which featured temps +26F above normal!!!!! The record high for all of January is 79. Will TRI approach that in the coming weeks? I think so.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am just really suspicious d10-15 seeing a feature that is holding in place like that high does in the Pacific. Pretty rare to see a feature not get jostled around some. I could be wrong, but that just doesn't look realistic. It may very well be correct or at least the base pattern might be a hp in that spot. But about the only think I have eve seen just sit and spin there is a GOA vortex - not a high. But man, it is locked in like a heat seeking missile on the ensembles.
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