Carvers Gap

That was never in question.

Euro monthlies are warm, but when aren't they for winter? Maybe a few examples, but wicked warm bias in general. As for Hugo, just thought his information was interesting. I generally buy into the idea that it is going to be difficult for the MJO to work into 8, but who knows. I generally try to look at both sides of the coin. The CFSv2, which I scorn regularly, is not base warm from Christmas week onward. Again, it is December 5th. Not unusual for winters to start warm and return to cold, especially after cold Novembers. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the winter will remain AN either. There are precedents for both. I am certainly not going to hang my hat on a wx model which has a know warm bias or a known cold bias. We will know soon enough. Winter forecasting can be humbling for us all...and if it hasn't been yet, it will be.

Actually that is not true IMHO. -3F for November. While that is not a winter month, fits Nina climatology to the T. Warm start to fall followed by a quick flip to cold late in fall. Textbook front loaded cold...problem for us is the front load came during a time when we really don't get a ton of snow historically.

I think Jeff summed-up Bam's track record of late. IMO, more of an SST problem where the cooler temps in areas where 8-2-1 reside won't allow impulses to propagate into favorable phases. That said, we are not really into longer wavelengths associated with winter yet - meaning wavelengths are still changing. Until those really set-up, not sure where those "standing waves" set-up over the US as well. SER is definitely favored at times but not guaranteed. Right now we are seeing three pools of BN heights and three pools of AN heights in the northern hemisphere. That is extremely stable. However, I suspect we move to four of each by mid-winter. See if you can dig up some articles about teleconnections of Scandinavian ridging and/or Ural ridging in relation to patterns over NA during winter. Might also see if that Scandinavian ridge is a prelude to high latitude blocking setting up(potentially due to an SSW). Also, some really good information is what John posted earlier about La Nina winters for this area. I trust his information above all other sources.

Interesting. Found this on the MA forum.

I can say this much, I am not losing a second of sleep about modeled warm weather patterns on December 5th. LONG way to go. Could it be a non-winter? Sure. But could it be a winter with a memorable cold snap? Sure. Saw where JB is worried about the late 90s non-winters as a possibility. Thing is, that is always a possibility but is about as unlikely as a severely cold winter. But one look at the CFSv2, and the long term continuation of a warm pattern is no slam dunk - reference MA forum discussion. We have just come off a November at TRI which was -3F. So, we already have had a front end cold snap of sorts - the weather doesn't adhere to manmade calendars. We aren't going to stay below normal forever. We are right on time for a switch in patterns. The positive is that we know there is a decent correlation between cold Novembers and winters which are BN. While there are a few clusters of analogs that produce warm, nearly snowless winters....most second year La Nina winters have some winter. Many of those winters have extreme cold. While last year was not a second year Nina, it did produce a memorable period of winter for those in western TN and Texas. That is the calling card of La Nina.

Interesting to see the 12z GEFS begin to allow the eastern ridge complex to decay/retrograde west. Don't think so? Switch your model over to surface temp anomalies and let it loop. Moves east, and then slips back into the West again. The deep trough which was forecast to go into the West is nothing more than a blip. Hate that for the ski slopes there as they are suffering now.

Yeah, I don't see cold locking in before Christmas for more than a day or two. Think our best chance for snow next weekend is for the cold to crash into the back of the system while a slp or wave buckles it, thus slowing it down. Long shot, but not impossible at all. Tough to know as modeling was nearly blind to the amplification.

Hurricane force winds and snow. Somebody's dream scenario somewhere. LOL - not mine. I definitely could enjoy a blizzard, but not touching 125mph winds!

Yeah, that was a good look, John. Looks like we have two timeframes to watch....Wednesday and next Sunday. Wednesday looks marginal, but it is there on modeling. Maybe a dusting for some areas? Next Sunday is one to watch. Long way to go, but this appears to be a low that cuts followed by a potential second low. Just how far that boundary gets south is going to be key. In the LR, the CFSv2(notable cold bias) seems to like some cold around the Christmas timeframe, another warm-up, and then much colder. I would not disagree. Base warm for the next few weeks as others have noted with cold interludes. However, I suspect that we see a more prolonged cold pattern(2-3 weeks) at some point this winter.

Tonight Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Wind chill values as low as -2. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 95 to 100 mph, with gusts as high as 125 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 40. Wind chill values as low as zero. Strong and damaging winds, with a south southwest wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 47 to 57 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Night Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 31. Strong and damaging winds, with a south southwest wind 40 to 47 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 40. Strong and damaging winds, with a south southeast wind 37 to 47 mph decreasing to 24 to 34 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers likely before 8pm, then scattered rain showers. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a south southwest wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Scattered rain showers before 2pm, then scattered rain and snow showers. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Very windy, with a south wind 30 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Scattered rain and snow showers before 2am, then scattered rain showers. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Very windy, with a south southeast wind 26 to 31 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Windy, with an east southeast wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night Scattered showers before 8pm. Clear, with a low around 33. Windy, with an east southeast wind 21 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Blizzard warnings for the higher elevations of Hawaii right now. Let that sink in for a minute. Someone wake-up Jim Cantore. Incredible forecast. See below...

The 18z GFS is very close to a major winter storm next weekend. It is similar to the CMC. Ways out there, and everyone should now the drill.

@nrgjeff, been digging on this and can't find it. I am seeing substantial heights build over Scandinavia and the Urals on the EPS. Seems like that is a precursor to cold here or maybe a strat warm. I can't remember if either is true. Right now I see roughly three pools of warm and three cold, tri-pole right? Maybe that configuration is muting that ridge's influence here?

Ya'll, I am actually thankful for the break in the cold from the last month. @Holston_River_Rambler, check out the 12z GEFS. See that trough develop(retrogrades west) just east of Hawaii late in the run? Probably have to use the northern hemisphere view to see it. That argues for a big ridge out west. Also notice the AN heights rotate out of Europe into Scandanavia. Roll the forward about 48 hours and the trough reforms in the East. There is an argument there for the eastern ridge to break down. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the ridge only lasts for a week and a half.

That would be accumulating snowfall on the 12z CMC about 7 days out. The GFS also loses the eternal ridge. Cold air attacks it over and over.

Again, the thing that is so very suspicious is that modeling locks this pattern in for 4-5 months in some cases. It could happen, but those looks are more than likely wrong. We have seen this over and over again during recent winters where modeling will show a pattern repeating for months on end. I tend to buy into 4-6 weeks weather cycles. If so, this current warm cycle should break sometime during late December (at the earliest) or by mid-January(latest). Now, that doesn't mean the new pattern is any better. I am just saying the repetitive pattern at 500 is suspicious. There are an increasing number of cold outliers in modeling even as we speak, but not worth really mentioning until those become trends. And if models are missing troughs amplifying in the East, that is probably something that will continue.

That ridge is going to want to hold in the East. La Nina is famous for that feature, but when it relaxes extreme cold surges eastward after building in the northern Rockies and Canadian prairies. It is interesting that Rockies have had so little snow right now. They love La Nina winters, and right now La Nina has not kicked in out there - but it is about to. The other interesting thing is that wx modeling seems to be missing troughs pushing eastward. I think they are handling phase 7 of the MJO poorly. Now, as we get closer to January, phase 7 switches from cold to warm in our region. Biggest takeaway from modeling right now is that wx models are getting the base pattern likely correct, BUT are missing trough amplifications. Those little troughs in the long range, are turning into much more formidable features as they draw closer. Now, if someone wants a true bummer for a Saturday, look what happened after the cold in '89. That is what we don't want.

@Mr. Kevin, Joe D'Aleo of WxBell published an article today about this analog year which was mentioned yesterday on this forum.

Man, I was loving it. I have been freezing my tail off in the morning. Bout the earliest I have ever had to dig out my running gloves. The lake at Bays Mountain near Feagins Gap had ice on the beaver ponds there. Not sure I have ever seen ice on that arm of the lake this early. Morristown released the November data....very cold and very dry. Chattanooga had the driest November during the last 80 years.

Yep. That followed an extended run of -NAO blocking. Both of those overwhelmed a really bad Pac set-up and a terrible MJO cycle with the exception of the 8-2-1 loop in December which worked well in E TN. -NAOs tend to run in cycles. Would be nice to get another this winter. Not feeling that, but who knows...maybe.

But it wouldn't be the first time at our latitude that we have gotten the shaft. LOL. We are used to it.

7 is not a warm phase during December though. It is cold to the Apps. Now, if it is stuck in January....it is a warm signal. It is part of the reason Decembers are often cold during La Nina's. The same Pacific set-up which makes December cold works against us during Jan/Feb. There are definitely cracks in modeling right now. No idea if that amounts to anything. But just imagine walking out on the ice, and the cracking noise becomes more frequent. That is what we are "listening" for. Right now, they are just random off runs. But make no mistake, modeling lost next weekend's amplification after originally having it. My guess is that we are going to have strong ridges this winter. I just don't see any way around that. However, I think the cold is going to push more than LR modeling depicts. We have seen that over and over again since early November. Hey, we manage a super cold shot last year with crap MJO phases. I will dig around this weekend and try to find some examples of MJOs that rotated 3-6 and still had snow. There is some correlation to North Carolina snowstorms and maybe phase 3? The North Carolina guys can correct me on that.

Haven’t looked at WXBell today. There are some similarities to 84-85, but to me that is a stand alone year. It is like a 100 year blizzard like ‘93. Not sure anyone can predict extremes like that with a ton of lead time. We will see more extreme cold and snow in our lifetimes. Harkening back to last year, the AMO has to flip for those winters of old to return regularly.

Plus, for whatever reasons, modeling has been missing amplifications for about the past 4-6 weeks. Not sure why.