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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew.
  2. Carvers Gap
    It does. It was late to the game w/ the ice storm, and took a long time to correct to the CMC. It really wasn't close to being accurate until about 24hours to go.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Three windows I feel are interesting, because cold fronts are likely involved. 1. Feb 11th 2. Feb 18th 3. Last four days of Feb and/or first few days of March.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And if you think cold weather is done for the season, I am just gonna leave this here. That Feb18-21st window is decent. 1040hp parked over Memphis feeding cold into the Gulf Coast.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I will say this, it sure beats facing +25F departures during Jan, LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Exactly!
  7. Carvers Gap
    Upper level low...weatherman’s woe. Quoting Flash and it is true.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 18z Euro and 18z GFS don't even look like they are modeling the same storm at the surface.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I mean where can one get that type of information other than here, and for free at that. This is such a great forum.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Agree. There is a HP which is sitting over the top which might be blocking it, but there is not bitterly cold air mass shunting southward. That said bowling balls are notoriously tough to predict.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS is east of 12z. Swing and a miss yet again by that model.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is a nice flyby by one of the forum's most respected posters!!!!
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z control
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS snow mean for storm #1...
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Canadian has an upslope event around d10. Way out there, but good to see modeling seeing something w/ that cold shot.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a mid-south slider around d10 FWIW. That is going to change likely, but worth noting. That is the 18th timeframe that we have had circled as well...no cutter this run. edit: sorry. cutter 17th and then slider right after.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro was slight jog to the east. CMC was a slight jog west. GFS was an ever so slight jog west. They may be converging on a storm track. We will see. The 12z GEPS has a decent snow mean over TRI...4-5".
  19. Carvers Gap
  20. Carvers Gap
    Still rolling and 15hours straight of wintry precip.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And the Euro goes boom.
  22. Carvers Gap
    A little off topic, but @Holston_River_Ramblerthe woodpeckers in CA new that a hard winter was inbound... https://heraldcourier.com/news/national/woodpeckers-hoard-over-700-pounds-of-acorns-in-vacation-rental-home/article_56c015b4-d914-5b00-a2d0-3cb403d4b36f.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Bristol_Herald_Courier&fbclid=IwAR1LFxFcHxJ4DScXnpdBVFPvQUg6QaAgiTCyYojccRipQXVgaR8Dfk_3EZI
  23. Carvers Gap
    Re: 12z....The CMC backed further west around 96. The GFS looked like it was going to early in its run. The big thing I notice is that it is slowing down. That might allow for a bigger storm.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Very steady look by the CMC. For once, can the GFS actually be too progressive this winter, and live up to its old bias...LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I ask selfishly, because sometimes that works out for E TN as well. I seem to remember that phase 3-4 has a weird correlation to snow in your area. I filed that away just because it is unusual.
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