87storms

I’m not even focusing on a good winter at this point lol…getting a 1-3” clipper would be an upgrade over the last 2 years. I agree with your general thesis, though…aka it’s too early to throw in the towel.

Winter without snow is like an extended November, which is prob my least favorite weather month.

Jan ‘25 is gonna be epic.

Nice shower moving thru Frederick rn.

There’s no sugarcoating it…December has been a complete bust along the east coast as far as snow is concerned. Glad we’re getting rain, though. January is better for snow around anyway.

It took me a while, but I'm now officially craving a snowstorm.

Doesn't look like there's any real surface high to the north.

In backloaded winters, we trust.

January 2024 might be the most important month in Americanwx/mid-Atlantic forum history.

Elevation will forever be important for snow. Even in the 80s and 90s, the rain/snow line would setup along the fall line, so that really isn't a new concept. What's new is that even places at 500' elevation are raining. We need a cold air press to settle in for more than a couple days instead of relying on essentially perfectly timed arctic air intrusions. It seems like having a sustained -ao/nao would make that an easier task. Long story short, it just hasn't been cold enough in the east. It'll flip at some point...looks like sooner than later...but the question I have is for how long?

Taps into the gom, it looks like. Might be good for the higher elevations, at least.

I oddly don’t mind those things bc they’re basically harmless. Yellow jackets and wasps that live inside basketball hoops, on the other hand…I do mind.

Might get to 60 today at this rate lol. This is our week to continuing repairing the water table...then the fun starts with new 2024 vibes.

Meanwhile, that was a La Nina lol. The similarity seems to be with blocking, which we're forecasted to be headed towards. Whether that forecasted -nao comes to fruition might be what determines whether we're in here or the panic room in 2 weeks.

Kinda like 10 day threats.

I only cancel winter when the temps are above freezing, it's not snowing, and there's no snow on the ground. If any of those conditions aren't met, I uncancel winter.

I’m starting to see why we need blocking…otherwise, we keep having to deal with these vorts flying around to the north mucking everything up.

I had to take phys161/262/263 at umd for my concentration. Quite a few formulas to remember, to say the least. I got an A in diffeq, but was happy to just pass those courses lol…so much material, though I heard quantum physics is when things got real.

Hopefully, the strain name has the word “blue” in it.

Side note…I haven’t looked at the stats of the gfs, but it doesn’t tease as often anymore. It hasn’t showed much in the way of blues for 2 years now and it’s turned out to be pretty accurate on that lol. It’s also schooled the nam during the summer on multiple occasions by not showing much precip up this way, so if it’s showing blue (at range, not this far out), it deserves attention.

Surprised to see most of the central and southern Apps as dry as it is: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx (just need to select calendar year) Maryland now only has Class 1 drought conditions.

Clippers or a slider...no in between. Actually fits the summer precip pattern, so it might be onto something.

I said this before (I think in another thread) and I meant it...I like the idea of December being a month to catch up on rain with January/Feb being snowy. The lack of rain through the summer in Frederick and surrounding areas was legit. However, that last storm definitely helped get the creek next to the Three Saws trailhead flowing better. One more significant precip event would be a nice get for this area.

You might be right because I think winds near the surface have had a southerly component, but upstairs we’ve had that consistent dry nw flow.

3rd cloudy day in a row. Hmmmph