87storms

Agreed...until 1pm.

Hobbyist analysis incoming, but it almost looks like the HP setup is better on 12z than 0z. Seems like this is really just a matter of the storm being too amped, otherwise it seems like a workable setup.

Yea, I need to remind myself that I'm in Frederick now. This storm is within my striking distance...I don't care what happens along the 270 split lol.

It looks like there's redevelopment off the coast. I guess at this point it's a matter of how soon that occurs. It still looks like a workable setup to get snow to mix/rain, at least closer to the M/D line.

That would still be an improvement over this winter up to this point. One of these storms needs to be the table setter. We don't do "mild to all of a sudden snow patterns" very well. It's usually a process.

Congrats PSU...literally.

It would be really great if the sun would come out in Frederick for more than 45 minutes today. I've noticed throughout the year that Central VA/MD is often times the dividing line between sun and clouds, which is obviously due to the endless supply of systems moving through the Ohio Valley/Northeast along with the GL streamers.

We usually start with a table setting event…maybe that Monday clipper and/or Thursday slider lays some of the groundwork for that next weekend potential.

Well hopefully ‘24 brings in the good vibes. Frederick got snookered by that first Jan ‘22 event, too. We did make up for it with the next 2 systems…had several inches from each of those, but a mecs/hecs would be fun.

Jan 10 is fun, too, for the simple fact that it essentially takes up nearly the entire eastern half of the country lol

Yea that one underperformed in Bethesda…I think it was like 3 days of periodic light snow lol. Good for the winter vibes, but not the most efficient of storms.

I didn’t realize bmore has struggled with secs/mecs level snow like that. I think Jan ‘19 brought up to 10” in Bethesda. It was pouring snow for several hours with that last band.

We’re getting snow in the next 2 weeks and there’s nothing we can do about it.

It’s still December.

This is why I don’t agree with taking our prime snow window into March. I don’t find March to be very reliable for snow…yes, it can snow, but it’s more similar to December than February...at least for the lower elevations.

FWIW...LWX thinks higher elevations are in the game for next week (which is a step in the right direction if you're a winterista)... Another low may impact the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Most guidance is showing more southern stream energy with this system, but a split flow (suggesting it will not phase completely). With more southern stream energy and moisture, this may bring more widespread precipitation to the area. However, uncertainty in the track remains so chance pops are in the forecast for now. As for rain vs snow, there will be colder and drier air in place ahead of the system but there is not much (if any) of a high to the north to reinforce the colder air. Therefore, warm advection may cause most areas to be rain with chances for snow higher in the higher elevations. Will continue to monitor. High pressure will most likely return late next week.

In Celsius, no less.

That’s it, I’m quitting this hobby until the 0z gfs.

18z GEFS looks better than 12z for that first wave. Temps are fringe, but if it trends north, maybe the higher elevations can cash in.

I'm a seasonista...I do prefer warmer weather, but I don't feel comfortable with winter feeling like late November (unless I was living in a location where it's expected).

Just played 2 hrs of pickup hoops...definitely a lot of people out today, given the premium weather. Now that I got that out of my system, I've now graduated from being ready for a snowstorm to now being ready for the every 5-10 year HECS.

If you’re big game hunting, then yes, winter is half over on Feb 8, but I’d like to see a cdf for mean snow. The biggest issue so far this year isn’t the lack of snow here, but what seems like most of NA. I’m not even tracking snow here anymore…I want to see legitimate snowstorms showing up for areas to the nw.

We still have time, though it’s pretty concerning that so many places east of the Mississippi have struggled to get any cold or snow. I’d feel better about things if there were signs that we weren’t stuck in a prolonged Autumn. However…next week does look more wintry from an air temp perspective.

…I should have said 1.5 years, since early to mid Jan 2022 did produce.

I’m not even focusing on a good winter at this point lol…getting a 1-3” clipper would be an upgrade over the last 2 years. I agree with your general thesis, though…aka it’s too early to throw in the towel.