87storms

Just woke up to a snowy scene in Frederick. Foggy/misty snow out there.

It just feels cold enough to snow lol. Stations around me are generally 28/20

Yep, that matches my records lol. I was living in downtown Bethesda at the time.

You might be referring to 2014. We had 3 snowfalls spread out through the month. We did get one in early March '15, too. I took a rack of pics/vids from both of those winters...I've got a legit media diary of events from 2013 to 2019 lol.

Are we getting Norlun Trough'd?

Tomorrow has potential to be one of the more wintry days we’ve had in a while. Cold/breezy with blowing snow in the forecast.

The snow clouds were in full effect today.

All it does now is snow and there's nothing we can do about it.

The ones showing the highest QPF clearly have the best primitive equations and the most data points.

Euro/Nam is a pretty good LR/SR combo. We've been doing well with QPF lately, too. The rest is TBD.

Works for me lol.

When you look at the whole setup, the potential is there. Got a vort swinging through with a low developing off the coast of the Carolinas. This isn't a nor'easter, but if one or both vorts are stronger and further south than modeled, then there's a path to victory (via several inches). Looks like a daytime event (mostly) and should be powdery. Both of those are part of my grading criteria. Funny seeing people talk about winter grades yesterday because I was randomly thinking about that during my drive yesterday. Winter gets a C+ so far. This event could get it solidly into the B category. Also, I mentioned this before, but the idea of getting those rainers to get out of the drought followed by snowfall always seemed like an ideal situation. Creeks and streams are flowing better than I've seen in the past year.

Whatever Cincinnati gets, we’ll get.

The purpose of this system is to recover the 1-2” lost via compaction and melting from the Monday storm.

Ngl, next week's temps look kind of appealing. I want the next storm to be legit. Not sure if that happens this year, but we have had some qpf producers (creeks are flowing nicely around here)...just gotta find the right timing.

Not much is gonna change less than 2 days before an event lol. Maybe we go from 1-2" to be squarely within 2-4". The last system trended well, but overall the models were pretty locked in on the stripe of snow being near dc to bmore...we just hit the top end of it, so hopefully we can do that again.

There seems to have been more room for coastal development with the last system. This time, the flow up top seems more progressive with the cold front basically plowing thru before next week’s moderating trend. I think the way to win is to be able to get the low to redevelop quicker and closer to the coast before it exits the stage.

Snow on snow is underrated. Even if it’s just a 1-2” deal, it can still look like a fresh snowstorm.

Definitely a premier sunset out this way...and noticeably chilly. Gonna be some slick spots on the roads.

Pump the brakes. I was making an analysis because it was getting quiet to prompt analysis...didn't once say "it won't snow". I said my expectations are of a light event. I could lie and say my expectations are for a nor'easter (but that's a want).

You're probably not wrong lol. I'm rooting for a moderate event...and a diggier vort.

It looks like a Norlun trough setup (Philly disco mentioned it)...maybe that's the path to victory.

I'm just saying as-is, the coastal on both the gfs/euro develops and heads practically due east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024011618&fh=69

GFS is basically an ots solution. Euro kind of is, too. CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly. I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point.

We just need the low to ramp up quicker, but it’s a pretty good track on the ukie, too.