Mailman

18z GFS ended up okay. Got rid of that Mon River screwzone that showed up at 12z.

Jan '94 mixed in Morgantown, but not in PA, right?

18z GFS seems promising so far, I think.

Euro getting close.

Talk about a weenie run. Last frame has a banger, too.

3" here.

Been in some decent banding down here for the last hour or so.

I remember that one. That storm was a good one.

I like clippers. They always seem to overperform here.

GFS is disappointing.

Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Areas affected...Portions of western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212356Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to persist for a couple more hours before storms weaken and the severe threat gradually diminishes. Given the expected short duration tornado threat, a Tornado Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells continue to exhibit instances of strong low-level rotation, from Butler County PA to Ohio County WV. Multiple TDS signatures were noted with some of these storms in the past few minutes via KPBZ dual-polarimetric radar data. These storms continue to rotate within an environment characterized by weak buoyancy (MLCAPE barely reaching 500 J/kg MLCAPE), but with strong low-level shear. Specifically, PBZ VAD profiler data have shown consistent elongated hodographs with 200+ 0-1km SRH, with METAR observations also showing some localized backing of the surface winds across southwest PA. As such, storm organization and periods of low-level rotation/brief tornadoes will likely continue for a couple more hours, before boundary-layer stabilization results in a gradual waning of the severe threat. A Tornado Watch issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Dial.. 10/21/2021

I am really looking forward to the Ida remnants making its way up here.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 230 PM EDT. * At 158 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles southeast of Mount Pleasant, or 10 miles northeast of Connellsville, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Seven Springs around 210 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Normalville, Acme, Jones Mills, Champion, Indian Head, Donegal and Seven Springs.

Mesoscale Discussion 0944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Ohio...southwest Pennsylvania into northern West Virginia and northwest Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131613Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe potential is increasing across portions of the Mid Atlantic. Damaging winds are the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if storms continue to intensify and increase in coverage. DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters have recently experienced an uptick along the southwest flank of an ongoing MCS, on the leading edge of the cold pool. The MCS is propagating southward towards 80+ F surface temperatures, with upper 60s to 70 F dewpoints contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Though only 25 kts of effective bulk shear are in place, and mid-level lapse rates are generally under 6 C/km, continued surface heating with the rich moisture in place is expected to support robust storm development into early afternoon, both ahead of the MCS cold pool and along the cold front. Wet downbursts and merging cold pools may support at least a few damaging gusts with the stronger (albeit shorter lived) multicellular clusters. Damaging gust potential may be high enough to warrant the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the next couple of hours. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/13/2021

Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031847Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger storms may pose a localized severe risk through the afternoon hours. A damaging gust or two are possible and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually deepened and become more widespread across portions of the Ohio Valley as a mid-level vort max traverses the region. Pockets of insolation have allowed for marginal destabilization of the boundary layer, with around 250-400 J/kg MLCAPE currently realized (per latest Mesoanalysis). 18Z PBZ and RLX VWPs depict considerable veering of the sfc-500 m winds, with modest 0-3km speed shear all contributing to 150-300 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, with 0-1km SRH values occasionally exceeding 200 m2/s2. Nonetheless, upper support is expected to remain modest, with low and mid-level lapse rates likely to remain below 6.5 C/km across most locations. While the favorable shear environment would support a damaging gust or a brief tornado with a stronger storm, the marginal instability is expected to limit the severe threat. Given the very sparse and brief nature of any severe threat that can materialize, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/03/2021

Hopefully a lot of 90 degree days in the summer.

Only a few flurries here this evening. Cancelled my Pivotal Weather sub today. Bring on the 60's and 70's!

Starting to come down nicely here.

DT:

GFS holds serve for late week.

I went out and didn't fall. So...