Mailman

Mixing on CMC at 0z is not as pronounced as it was on 12z. Guess I'd call that an improvement.

GFS looking ideal thru 93h.

Yep + QPF is up.

AIGFS seems to have delivered, also.

ICON is solid, if you're into that model.

Definitely a good sign when PBZ is discussing contingency plans.

Honestly, I'd have been more concerned if it showed primary going up 79.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential increasing for an impactful snow/winter storm Saturday night through Sunday night- The latest trends in both operational and model ensembles indicate a northward shift to impactful snow. A deepening trough is progged to track SE from the northern Plains, as a southern stream trough advances across the SW CONUS. These systems are expected to phase across the Central CONUS on Sunday. At the same time, a surface low is progged to develop across the Gulf Coast region, with an inverted surface trough northward to the Upper Ohio Valley region. Snow should begin to overspread the region Saturday night as these systems approach. A coupled upper jet structure should also enhance ascent Sunday, with frontogenesis as far north as I-80. Saturation throughout a deep dendritic growth zone should lead to efficient snowfall on Sunday as well. Ensemble based probabilities of at least a 6-8 inch snowfall have increased to 70-80 percent across much of the forecast area. Current probabilities of a 10 inch or greater snowfall have increased to 50 percent as far north as Pittsburgh, with higher probabilities to the south. Given the shift in some of the operational models, would like to see later data to initialize a potential Winter Storm Watch. Have held off on issuance for now in coordination with surrounding National Weather Service offices. Will enhance the Hazardous Weather Outlook to indicate the increasing probability of an impactful snowfall. The heaviest snow should begin to taper off overnight Sunday night, through cold NW flow and the crossing parent upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday. With the track of the low to the south, the Upper Ohio Valley region will be in the cold sector so no potential for mixed precip is expected. This incoming system has the likelihood for widespread impacts from a significant snowfall. Stay up to date on later updates and possible watches.

I said last night that I will go in with the mindset that I'll take a 6" snowfall and anything more is a bonus.

Yep, because if it's modeled close to the border, it'll make its way up my way.

Seems Euro stays all snow from the PA/WV line northward.

Oh my. Here we go.

That'll work. Only 4-5 days to go.

Just a foot area-wide on the Canadian.

The ICON, for you know what and giggles.

Canadian is a real good hit area wide.

Don't wanna be in the bullseye 5 days out anyway.

Oh Canada.

Just came thru here. Was rippin' pretty good. No flashes, no rumbles, though. Guess I will go to sleep.

Feel honored to be in the year's first mesoscale discussion.

Thundersnow heading towards New Castle!

Didn't do squat down here today; however, i did have to venture to Johnstown this morning. It was rippin' good on 711 between Donegal and Ligonier this morning.