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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then.
  2. jm1220
    GFS looks similar to me. Again it has this blowup area of heavy precip over LI and NYC that result in the crazy snow amounts. 700 low looks to track ENE from around Reading PA to over NYC/Long Island, a little SE of the NAM's placement.
  3. jm1220
    The one real improvement to me seemed to be a stronger front end hit which would hopefully help delay the warm air and obviously drop more snow precip. Anything on the back end could be real could be a pipe dream, and wouldn't be shocking if a chunk of that is non-snow. My 6-7" call for my immediate area stands for now unless there's more improvement. I can see how I somehow make it to 10" if it's like a 2/13/14 wall of intense snow or if we have the miracle weenie band at the end. Immediate south shore 3-5", Central Park maybe 7-8", White Plains 10-14", northwest of there 14-18" especially around I-84. North of there could be the 18"+ amounts in the deformation/high ratio snow.
  4. jm1220
    Doesn't look that way to me. If anything on LI the 18z run was better. Looks like the southern end of the heavy snow tightened up a bit. And these are just snowmaps-impossible to tell what's legit without soundings.
  5. jm1220
    NAM to me was somewhat better but a few things- -Not sure if this is real or not but looks like part of the reason the surface low went SE is an area of convection that seemed to drag it east starting at 0z tomorrow through Thu AM. On the previous run that convective area was weaker. -The 700 low track didn't change much. Maybe it went south a little? Was hard to really tell but that hopefully improves. There is still warm air at around 750mb that gets into coastal/city areas before 6z, but by 6z the steady heavy precip is shutting off. -A chunk of the snow relies on this back end stuff that may be there or won't be. Seemed like the front end stuff was better which to me would be where much of the snow city and coast would come from. The dryslot would likely still make it into the city. So to me, another stepwise improvement but not a big shift.
  6. jm1220
    It's better up here for sure but it won't a miracle blizzard at my house while Captree's driving rain. The sleet may be held off an hour or so but that's it to my eyes. One "extreme" example I can think of is 2/13/14 but even that gave me 7" in Long Beach at the end, and the north shore maybe 12-13"? The rain line literally sat 5 miles north of me for hours.
  7. jm1220
    IDK, maybe? This doesn't seem like that kind of storm though. I think the early March 2018 storms had big differences but that was mainly due to marginal surface temps not situations where we might have sleet or the dryslot.
  8. jm1220
    I noticed that and LOLed. Upton deserves big props if something like that happens but more likely the difference will be a few inches not 9-10.
  9. jm1220
    Seems like they have a hard time placing the surface low too. As it gets up here, models seem to have the surface low from Baltimore to off Ocean City.
  10. jm1220
    Like a fire burning through a forest, the fire diminishes eventually in one spot and moves on. Germany with over 800 deaths today-they're in some trouble. Proportionally for us that would be well over 3000 deaths. Deaths in other western European countries are decreasing now other than Italy and the UK to an extent.
  11. jm1220
    Upton's point and click-lol. Maybe an inch at Captree-a 30 minute drive from me and about 15 miles away. Here, "most likely" snow is at 11" and point/click has 8-14". Long Beach "most likely" is 3" and JFK 10 miles away 11". Wonder why NW Suffolk wasn't included in the warning then? My guess for my backyard is still 6-7" of snow and gunk. Hopefully I'm being conservative. I can see it being a few inches if these awful NAM runs are right, or if it's a miracle like this Euro run seems to be, could be 12".
  12. jm1220
    Again, wondering how real that back-end snow is. We would need a pretty vigorous upper air low pivoting east to really keep that snow area intact. I'm still thinking much more will come from the initial thump and hoping the dryslot/mix can be minimized near the city.
  13. jm1220
    This is different because of the blocking setup in place, but it was clear for days that the strong incoming trough would try to make this storm now hug or cut and we would need the confluence to force an east turn.
  14. jm1220
    What we’re looking for in terms of the dryslot is the 700mb low track not the surface.
  15. jm1220
    Means we're essentially right on the line and they don't know what will happen lol. My point/click still says 8-14" though. Jackpot Long Beach only around an inch.
  16. jm1220
    I will say for whatever it's worth the GFS doesn't show the same warm nose the NAM has at 36hr on the soundings. Strange with a fairly strong southerly wind at 700-750mb. The 700 low does take a slightly better track on the gfs than the NAM.
  17. jm1220
    Has a crazy enhanced precip area at around 9z come through that I guess would be snow as the low starts departing. The NAM had something similar but less intense. That would be the CCB I'm guessing. Lot of haves/have nots from banding inland it seems, lots of enhanced and shaft zones.
  18. jm1220
    To me looked like the 700 low tracked from NW of Philly to about over NYC? I guess call it a win that this doesn't look it came any further NW from 12z.
  19. jm1220
    Over Dover, DE at hr 36 is east?
  20. jm1220
    Watch still in effect here for 3-10". Quite the range, pretty much how I see it. Covers all of Suffolk County so 3" is probably the twin forks, 6" or so here.
  21. jm1220
    RGEM apparently still quite warm/tucked in for 18z run today.
  22. jm1220
    1/27/11 had an insane 500mb cutoff low that took a perfect track to nail us, and the initial batch of WAA snow shut off before the mid level warmth got here. It's a perfect example of the precip shutting off when the mid level warmth was here but the massive closed low crushed us that night. This won't be anything like that. The mid level low is actually deamplifying as it comes east.
  23. jm1220
    Surface wind direction also isn't great on the NAM for a time from the city east. At 6z the low center is over DE Bay and winds are coming in from the ENE. That could drive parts of LI above freezing so could actually mean some rain. Something of a coastal front develops that gets Montauk to around 42F at 9z. This run is a bit of improvement but more work needed.
  24. jm1220
    Often the models are too warm near the ground and actually under-do the mid level warmth. The NAM shows a strong closed 700 low, that will bring in the warmth for sure.
  25. jm1220
    Looking at soundings, by 3z many of us near the city could start changing to sleet. Warm nose comes in at 800-850mb and looks marginal there, howling SE wind coming in as well at that level. By 6z a sharp warm nose comes in at about 750mb and would certainly be sleet. But at that point not much may be falling. By 9z the warm nose recedes and column is below freezing except the surface which soundings have at about 32. Without this CCB feature behind the low it would probably be 3-6" in and near the city. Various warm layers start to mess things up fairly early. We need a better trend with the mid level lows.
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