jm1220

8 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Lightning earlier, and a very heavy steady rain.  Some gustier winds now too.

The prodigious precipitation this year has been something amazing.  Was forky correct when he said we're becoming a snowier Atlanta?  It's probably the most apt description of the 2010s climate I've heard so far.  But we're more prone to being in the rain shield because of our latitude.  This has been a relatively unusual extratropical cyclone.  Very potent, compact, but slow-moving.

Not that slow moving, but just maturing and banding in the same exact spots as the Mar 7th storm this winter. And warmer than that storm was. Rained hard for an hour or so here, but it'll probably be showery from here on out from NYC east, maybe a band or two can make it east of the Hudson. The dynamics from this peaked over NJ/E PA. Crazy how even the HRRR could've gotten that so wrong. Lucky it's late November and not a few degrees colder when that difference would mean another 12" of snow from what was predicted over N NJ. The models got the general storm right but the short term a bust. 

Newest HRRR doesn't show more than 0.50" anywhere west of I-287, and 1.50-2"+ reaching into NYC/western LI still. LOL

HRRR this run just this hour has 0.5-0.75" rain hugging the S CT coast, less north and the same delusion of heavy rain on the NJ coast only and into NYC/western LI. The heavy rain band is to the MA border, LI is dryslotting and the CCB area of rain is rotting over W NJ. Maybe the N NJ rain pivots back east but it seems to just be rotting there. Seems like about an inch of rain so far around here. 

Definitely an exciting and dynamic system but awful performance by short-term models this close in. 

Just now, CarLover014 said:

Pressure down to 993.75 mb. I can literally watch it drop on my phone (my normal barometer is at 994)

I don't have any saved radar images of the Mar 7th storm but this looks like its twin from my memory. The dry slot is already making its way onto the South Shore so the LI rain totals the models are showing will probably be a good bit high unless it does a hard right turn this second. Also obviously more heavy rain into N NJ than models had. 

All I know is that this move up to the North Shore better pay off for me. I expect nothing less than 50% added onto whatever Long Beach gets this winter, and for said snow to last 50% longer on the ground. Or maybe I just brought my suffering up north to the PSV, NorthShoreWx, etc crew. We already got cursed by the early season snow event. When you look at the sample size of 2011 and 2012 this happened in, guess it's a sign we need to surrender now.  

Definitely pouring now. Yikes. Glad I headed back here from LB before this started. 

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I'm in Melville and right now it is pouring.  I hope we do dry slot soon---don't need all this rain

I guess we'll see. If the models are right, the dry slot should stop heading north very soon and the rain pivots east and weakens some as the forcing diminishes. The heaviest amounts should be from us down the NJ shore from here. I'd say it's moderate-heavy where I am. Quite a dynamic little system. 

LOL at the models which are all, even HRRR trying to shift the heavy rain east too soon while the dry slot is still surging north and NJ/E PA is getting drenched. Coming down good here in Huntington but at this rate the dry slot will be on the South Shore soon. Radar looks like a pinpoint replica of the mid March storm that dumped 24" along I-287 and went dryslot crazy east of there against model predictions. I guess either the 700mb low is tracking west of where models have it again, or dry air is wrapping around it more than models have. 

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You had 5".  Trust me   

Maybe. I got back when things were about over. 

Gonna go with 4.5” here total. It’s all rain now and starting to melt/settle. 

Back to sleet and some mangled flakes. This mix line is really putting up a fight. 

Finally turned over to mostly rain here. 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m shocked that LI did as well as they did, but NJ is a disaster. They hardly salted.

The slightly stronger high, cold wedge and cold dewpoints made the difference, along with the massive front end with dynamic cooling of the column. If it came in patchy and more showery, the column would’ve warmed up much sooner and we would’ve seen much less. 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

About the same here, close to 6", how do you compare this to the storm after Sandy?  About the same amount of snow at your home?

 

My home was wrecked by Sandy so I wasn’t in LB, but people who were here said something like half a foot. 

Still snowing a little here with some sleet, but accums are done. 

Finally got home to Long Beach. I’d estimate 5” here. Snow mixed with sleet and a little rain now. 

Sleet/rain/snow mix in Long Beach. Looks like a good 4-5” on the ground. 

HORRENDOUS road conditions. Heading back to LB and pulled over in Wantagh. Still puking snow here. 

Pounding in Melville. Easily looks like a couple inches already and large flake sizes. 

All colder surfaces covered in Melville and roads slushy. 

Snowing nicely in Melville. 

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Whoa, welcome to the neighborhood! That's a great place for snow and marginal events. You'll be about 6 miles to my west, was over there today. Going from one bar town on LI (Long Beach) to another in huntington, i like it

Thanks! I’ll be just east of Rt 110, near Jericho Tpke. A couple miles from Huntington village but not a bad place at all. Looks like just about as good a spot as any on LI to get some additional snow here and there. The hilly elevation should help a little too. It’s close to my job which is in Melville. 

In our part of Long Island, if you see snow/sleet for long enough to accumulate anywhere, call that a win. And a very nice event for Nov 15th. This will be a much better event a little distance into N NJ and S NY. 

Hopefully where I’ll be moving soon (Huntington Station) will do well this winter.

I’m always more bullish about a Nino winter than a Nina (although those have been good here too lately), and hopefully the west-based Nino and the NAO can help. I’m joining the North Shore crew in a couple weeks-moving to Huntington. Should be an improvement over LB-watch this winter be full of South Shore scrapers.  

Videos of flooding on Facebook coming in from Long Beach, especially the Canals. The West End by the bay is likely flooded too. 

Getting gustier outside. Nothing big but some maybe around 20 mph.