jm1220

Sleet/snow grains just started here. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

snowing here on the south shore- sort of.  It's like a white rain with snow flakes mixed in but looking more snowy by the minute, looks like it's transitioning to all snow

It's going to settle south to a point, hopefully it's just south of the beach. Good sign that the short term models seem to be right in making the column cold enough to keep the period of sleet brief. 

Just now, snowman19 said:

The Euro just caved to the other guidance. Went way SE and it’s not done yet, neither are the others

Too early to say that when the relevant system is just affecting California now and this current system which will affect how far SE the baroclinic zone goes is just moving in now. 

I could see a trend back NW tomorrow after everything is sampled correctly. But maybe it keeps going SE, who knows. 

According to SNE thread, Euro went SE from last run. Heaviest snow roughly along I-95. 

Dual pol suggests that precip starts as sleet but once it gets going it changes to snow. Sleet line is sinking SE a little as it comes in. Would make sense that the column cools with onset of precip. 

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

There really is tons of convection blowing up over southeast PA heading northeast... that would be a great sign... problem is how much this stuff circled below yanks everything east

 

Greatest pressure falls are also by SEPA / NJ... not much and those can jump around but if we can continue that, we may have something going...

 

I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face. 

A good site to follow from here on:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

The yellow between the two purple-colored areas is sleet. The northern purple area is snow, the southern one rain. 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m having a hard time thinking this is a bust looking at the current radar.  Just saying 

Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets. 

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Steady snow 31/29

Probably good news for us. Soundings are good for snow on latest HRRR but really marginal, i.e. off a half to 1 degree too cold at 800-850, it's sleet for a good while instead of snow. It's been pretty insistent on the last few runs that it's snow when the heavier rates come in. Precip shield looks good so far. Fingers crossed for a few inches. 

Definitely wasn't what I was expecting-the big SE trend on the Sun night storm. Still time to inch its way back NW. But it's undeniable at this point. 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Still looks like 6” is within reach

If anyone's going to score from this, I'd think your area would be it, and then east toward Plymouth and the upper Cape. 

Hoping to get something decent down here, short range models other than the NAM are cold enough for a few inches. This winter, whatever falls is gladly taken. 

RAP if anything looks cooler than the HRRR. Unfortunately it seems to shift things almost due east once snow gets into CT and Boston area gets shafted. 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea this may happen if the precip is weaker and dynamics weaker, still looks like mostly snow for the city and NW but could easily deal with a warm tounge with this  

HRRR still looks cooler and switches many over to snow for a while, but it does have a warm nose come in and there's a period of sleet. Dynamics and lift will likely determine how it goes-if it never really gets going, a lot of it will probably be sleet or even sleet/rain because the warm mid levels win out, if heavy rates do happen the warm air gets overcome and many flip over to snow and get a few/several inches. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam looks about the same for tonight

The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time. 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Think something like December 1995 or January 2004.  Both events there was prolonged sleet on the south shore that cut amounts fairly significantly in some areas while the north shore was all snow.  I’m not so sure about rain unless we are talking about the south fork of east Suffolk 

Yeah, also a possibility. Surface temps on the south shore may be just over freezing to start the event and result in it being rain, but it gets colder as the storm goes on. I remember Jan 2004 being a lot of sleet for hours, and 2/8/13 also killing the extreme south shore with sleet whiile it snowed for hours on the north shore. It's what stopped everyone on LI from reaching 18-20"+. Those totals were on the north shore where it was almost all snow and further east where the death band set up.

It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain. 

I'm finally ready to be somewhat bullish at least for northern areas of NYC and LI. The Nam and to lesser extent the Euro going just a hair colder as the precip gets intense later tonight, at least enough to tip it maybe just cold enough for snow, is encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how far SE the cold air can make it with the heavier precip rates-whether it makes it down to the south shore. Could be a system where there's a notable difference between north of the Northern State and south of Sunrise Highway. Could easily be a few inches if the cold gets in soon enough with the heavy precip. 

Hopefully this can finally be a storm where it matters that I moved here from LB.   

7 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

No offense John but you’re always expecting nothing. You’re in Long Island so it might get trickier for you but New York City is really in a good spot here.

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better. 

4 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Why is this tricky... this is a 2-4 for New York City simple. Central New Jersey probably rain ending as some snow.

SNE didn’t seem happy with that Nam run which is probably good down here. Low in general ticked SE which meant a colder outcome. SNE crew is saying it may have been convection happy and kicked it east prematurely. The storm ramping up quicker may cool the column down faster and make it colder anyway. This’ll be quite tricky actually. I’m expecting practically nothing for the coast, mostly a washout so anything would be nice. Never fun watching Boston get slammed while we get soaked or nothing. 

Seemed like about an inch in Huntington Station at around 6:45. 

NAM tends to be overamped at the end of its range, not sure if that's a bias that's been fixed. 

1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Nam gives us more snow than southeast ma that’s hard to believe. I’d toss it for now. They get the better dynamics don’t they?

The Nam seemed to dampen out the low and send it east too soon. I doubt with this we'd do better than Boston or SE MA. 

Just now, WEATHERMINATOR said:

So does the hrdps and rgem

I'd be more comfortable with that if the Euro shows it too-it's hi res like those models. Right now the Euro still looks warm here. Hopefully overnight, the models cranking the storm sooner can crash the cold mid level air south sooner. 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM way west tomorrow night with precip and looks like 850s crash in times for snow for the city.

The Nam is really the only model that crashes the 850s south like that. It's possible if the storm is dynamic enough but it seems like things just get going a little late for that to happen for us, and there's a primary-ish system to the west that brings warm air up. Most models hold the 850 zero line near the CT coast and Rockland/Westchester until it's gone. 

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yea seems 18Z NAM is the outlier with that one now, I would expect 0Z to come in stronger/closer to the coast.

It’s looking like a nice event from maybe the Hudson Valley through SNE. It could really go to town in Boston through SE MA. It looks marginal/too warm near the coast here unless the coastal low can ramp up faster. 

The first feature tomorrow night again looks like it dries up as it gets here, much like the system about a week ago. Any which way, it looks like nothing can work out with these. I’m still thinking odds are the Sun night/Monday system is warm/rain near the coast due to it being too close. Maybe the Sat night event can be strong enough to bring the boundary east for the next one, but the latest GFS wasn’t enough to get it done east of the city.