jm1220

12 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

No, he's right. Heat before May is garbage.

No one can be thrilled with 40s and light rain/stratus, which we can easily have many days of in a backdoor pattern. 60s or 70s/sun is awesome. Hopefully on the north shore now there won’t be the Ambrose Jet frigid days Long Beach gets stuck with. 

The -NAO pattern developing on the long range GFS and Euro=yuuuuck for a good long stretch. It'll be backdoor city because of the low heights NE of us, and it looks like the parade of storms from the Pacific will continue and keep us wet. Really hoping that's overdone. The blocking shown over Greenland will do away with any kind of warmth here as long as that persists. And no, it won't be cold enough for snow outside of the high elevations in NY and New England. 

3 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Wow. Can’t beleive we don’t have anyone left in Long Beach. I haven’t seen the new dunes first hand but from that picture they really don’t look too high or wide. Hopefully the widening of the overall beach will help. Otherwise I could see that dune being breached during big storms and water getting stuck between the dune and the boardwalk.  

I’m still there pretty frequently. I’ll be there tomorrow actually. Haven’t seen the new dunes really, I’ll have to check them out. Last I really saw of them they were still under construction. 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I totally forgot you moved out of LB, I was thinking what!?!? There is absolutely nothing left on the south shore 

Yup. Moved closer to my job in Melville and the extra snow helps...  

In just the 10 minute drive from my apartment to Melville you can tell the difference. 

On 3/6/2019 at 10:35 AM, jfklganyc said:

Check out this photo from Belleayre yesterday.

What a great winter they are having!

 

Im also enjoying the winter week of snow covered ground and cold down by us!

Places in the sun are patchy coverage by me, but shaded areas still have a few inches or more of cement. 

19 hours ago, ag3 said:

I only had sleet the last hour in Whitestone. Brooklyn and south shore went over to sleet 2 hours before that. That’s why we ended with 5” instead of 2”.

My roads were completely snow covered with 2”-3” of snow during height of storm and there is still 100% coverage of snow on everything but pavement. The pack is solidified too from the freeze. Will last longer than a typical March storm.

You definitely notice a difference south of the LIE, I have a few inches in many places that’s frozen solid enough to walk on, and mostly complete snow cover. South of the LIE it becomes patchy, and in Long Beach it’s probably nothing but some mall piles. 

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Take a look at last night's 0Z EURO (during the storm). It had JFK getting 9 inches. It got 2.2. There was a warm layer above 850 that almost all the models did a bad job on.

Ratios at JFK were also likely much less than 10-1, temps were above freezing, and it was warmer aloft than expected. Even up here in a colder location on LI, the snow intensity wasn’t really anything great until temps warmed up and it had a hard time accumulating when it wasn’t mixed with rain or sleet. If the ground to 800mb was 2 degrees colder, there would be widespread 8-10” amounts here instead of a few inches. 

RGEM really flunked this one. It was pretty obvious given models like the Euro and NAM being warmer and risking a mix on the coast cutting down amounts, but it’s a far cry from the go-to model it was a couple winters ago. 

We can do fine down here in March with the right conditions. Last late March’s 12”+ storm and Apr 2nd morning storm are examples. 

21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

WTF man, I was forecasted for 5-8 and ended up with a little over 9"! I want a do over so I can get less like the forecast said. Bust!!!!! 

There’s a difference between a bust and disappointment/underperformed. This one underperformed for people near the coast but it’s probably not a bust. My point and click had 6-10” yesterday evening and I had 4-5”, so I guess you could call that a bust technically since it fell outside the range. 

18 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What constitutes a bust in your mind?  

I was forecasted to receive 5-8 inches of snow (melville LI) and we have anywhere from 2-3 inches, roads that were cleared by 5 am and schools that have delayed openings due to this storm. 

 

You probably had closer to 4”. The snow is settling and melting already. It looked like I had 4-5”, and it was a couple inches when I went to bed around 11pm. It was a disappointment, but I can’t complain about having 11” over 3 events in 3 days (assuming 1.5” Fri AM, 4-5” Fri overnight, 4-5” this AM) 

Probably 3” between this event and last event in Long Beach, but I had 9-10” between both in Huntington. Horrible winter for snow lovers on the south shore.

Heard an inch or two in Long Beach. The shaft lives on down there. 

12 minutes ago, Morris said:

Yet streets in Manhattan look like it never snowed. 

Very common especially late season for the Park to accumulate but Midtown elsewhere has little. 

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Logan just came in with 9". Lmao. Only 6" off

Maybe the location right on the water added a degree to temps and it stuck less? Or they’re just wrong? LOL

Congrats up there. Reminds me of the late March event we had last year that was widespread 12”+ here. It’s finally wintry looking outside here which is good but the warmth aloft screwed it from what it should’ve been. 4-5” instead of 8”. 

4” or so outside here. Looks like winter for a change which is nice. 

The writing was on the wall for coastal areas last night when the sleet line surged north, but I had some hope when the heavy rates put a stop to it I guess temporarily. I passed out when the meat of it was coming through. Glad I passed out since it looks like maybe 2 more inches fell after I went to bed. Much of it must’ve been sleet. 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is probably the furthest it’s getting for Queens and Brooklyn 

Maybe even here sleet won't be that big a deal. Looks in NJ if anything sleet is retreating SE. 

Mod to heavy snow here, couple of inches on the ground.

I was concerned about sleet especially in the last few hours since the sleet line made fast north progress. Now however with the heavy precip it's stopped for now and may even sink south. HRRR has also gotten a little colder. So it's possible that the sleet won't advance much further than it already has and the lighter precip before allowed the sleet to race north like it did. 

That being said, HRRR got colder from last run. But it can be fickle. 

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Bad news. So much for it not changing over too quickly. 

Looking at dual pol, the mix line is making pretty fast progress north. It's about 20 miles south of Long Beach. HRRR shows it hitting some resistance fairly soon, but with the very heavy activity also comes more warm air if you're near the coast. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pouring snow. Hardest of the storm. About an inch down, plows are out, 32

Yep, definitely. Moderate intensity now. 1" here too. 

Bust posts will be disappearing as soon as they're seen. Way too early to be calling anything like that. Analysis only. 

10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

RAP buries NYC with 12"

It probably won't matter in Central Park but the RAP has been too cold. It also has 13" near PHL and they've already gone to sleet. 

HRRR has been pretty consistent in bringing sleet into much of LI, even up to me. I don't think it would cut down on accums too much and the warm layer isn't too thick (meaning heavier rates could probably overcome it), but if you're east and definitely south of the city, I'd hedge on pinging at some point in this. 

Sleet for now looks to have stopped pushing north in PA/MD. Hopefully as the heavy rates come in, it can overcome some of the marginal warming in the column. 

Nice coating here on colder surfaces, and some accumulation now on pavement. Snow coming down at a good clip.