jm1220

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models might be focusing more on the coastal now or they can just be confused right now.

Yep, it might just be adjusting toward this being a Friday focused event. We just have to wait and see.

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.

Hopefully you're right. I'm not liking the trends on some models toward making this a 24 hour long sheared out mess. I don't think something like that would end up as more than a solid advisory event. I guess that would keep it cooler for the area but we need the front end thump or the consolidated Fri low idea to happen. GFS and CMC are in sheared out mess land now. 

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

Looking like NYC's third 10+ inch storm. Splendid.

You live in Queens, that's a bad thing?

Looking great down here for now but as others said there's still plenty of time for it to keep going south or otherwise get messed up. 

Just now, Northof78 said:

NAM is a lot of snow for majority of forum...9-13"; although once north of 84 gets iffy with confluence and tight gradient 

This is through hr57. Looks like maybe at the very end and when precip is light there can be some sleet near the coast on this run but as you can see it doesn't make a difference in accums. Far northern people may be sweating a little but these always have banding north of where the snow is supposed to stop.  

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you wish you were there right now?

Yes and no. Not having power and having an entire million person city essentially shut down for days ain't ideal either. 6.4" of snow is a nice event for me (I saw some areas of Austin had 7 or 8") but I've already had more than that in one event 3x this winter and have a good shot at #4 on Thu. There's no comprehension down there (south of Dallas) how to handle any kind of winter event much less anything like this. The utilities are in some real trouble over how things have been handled. To me I wonder how they handle the A/C constantly being on for months under 100+ degree heat but can't handle this. I know some wires must have been damaged from ice but a lot of what just fell in TX was snow. 

Snowpack largely intact but some areas exposed to the sun are bare. Shaded areas definitely have a good bit left and we have the huge dirt/ice piles that will get even bigger on Thu. 

700mb frontogenesis at 48hr on the NAM for 18z Thu. This is exactly what the NYC/coastal areas would need to get a quick 2"/hr thump on Thu afternoon to get 6-8" even if they eventually mix. That would be one crazy snow band. The models now are essentially saying we get this very heavy snow batch for several hours then a lull where the warm air can come in. 

Central Park needs 6.2" I believe to get to 40" on the season-decent chance of this right now. 

We have the well placed WAA that brings the heavy snow in on Thu like a wall that makes the 6” totals possible near the coast. If the heavy snow is more scattered or the main WAA is aimed NW of the city, amounts will be less. As usual I think it’s 90-95% chance that at least the city will go to sleet at some point and probably rain. But by then a lot may have fallen already. 

Hopefully those models are correct that there could be heavy banding and the snow comes in solidly. As others pointed out the problem in Dec was there was a few hours of good snow then the snow shredded up and warm air took over. I agree that most will change over to no -snow eventually-rain near the coast and sleet inland. Any of these setups where we’re sweating the mid level low tracks end in changeovers. 

Snowpack is holding up decently well here but still taking a big hit with temps near 50 and rain. Hopefully we can salvage a fair amount before the event on Thu. 

6.4” of snow in Austin, third most on record and most in one event since 1949. Low tonight of 3 and more freezing rain on the way. Rolling power outages all over the city. Crazy situation 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have seen this before, first burst comes in then looses steam and next burst is less and quick to sleet. I believe there was a good example which cause Philly to get 8 during a football game and we ended up with 1 to 3.

It’s always a question of how the snow comes in-like a wall or shredded. If shredded the warm air advances more quickly and flips it over to sleet. That was our problem in the December storm. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

That HP North of New England is being blocked forcing redevelopment of the LP

Would be nice but I doubt it. We’re back into a period where the SE ridge is dominating and the blocking or what’s left doesn’t compensate. Nina climo in Feb can only be held off for so long. Should hopefully be a nice 3-6” thump before rain or sleet though. The high can at least make that happen. 

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

started at 3? thats early- and started as not snow which wasn't expected

Started as sleet in Long Beach as well with a few flakes. Now just some very light freezing drizzle which will make a glazed mess. 

Light sleet and a few flakes in Long Beach. 

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Wednesday may be the coldest temperature of the month in NYC. Euro and GFS MOS have a low around 15° in NYC. Still cold, but not the readings around 0° the models were showing a week ago.

 

 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/12/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  22  30| 26  39| 33  42| 24  24| 16  25| 24  39| 38  47| 34 26 42

It's the SE ridge rearing its head. The core of the cold is shooting down the Plains/Midwest and we get a relatively glancing blow. Austin getting down to 6 would equivalently mean us getting down well below zero? That says something by itself-NYC may make it to 15 but much of TX in a much more subtropical climate where palm trees can naturally grow may get 5-10 degrees colder. 

Thanks Walt! We might be heading back to a pattern where the SE ridge is asserting itself again and blocking might relax, meaning we go back to warmer storm tracks. Hopefully we can make one more run with a cold system but down here on the coast it’s always tougher as it is. And it might be a big story as you say with the sleet/ice this weekend being absorbed into an already thick snowpack. 

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What I have noticed from the icon these past few months is that it's low placement is ok but it's thermals are awful. This is one model I wouldn't be looking at when thermals will be so important with the next few storms. 

Seems like this will be a surface cold based/icy setup so the models that can’t resolve that properly (GFS) will suffer. 

Wow, even Corpus Christi right on the Gulf is under a winter storm watch for ice and expected low on Mon night of 18. 

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It was -3 on January 19, 1994.

I remember flying in from TX during the Feb 2016 cold snap and absolutely freezing when I got off the plane. It was in the mid 70s when I left and probably single digits at JFK. Coming back up from the south, the cold is hard to get back adjusted to. 

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant stand severe weather because I've lost extremely expensive equipment over it.  That needs to stay in the sparsely populated parts of the country.

 

“Severe” weather I experienced on LI is nothing like actual severe weather in Austin that’s for sure. But yes this is essentially a BECS upcoming for snow and cold in TX. 

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Northshore Ski Bowl was open for business this afternoon and evening.  Backyard skiing with a few inches of powder over a 12" base.  I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees...

The Target near the New York Ave/Jericho Tpke intersection is the go to sledding area in my immediate backyard. Significant difference in snowpack between the Smithtown and Islip ends of Rt 111 today as you would expect. 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time they dropped below 10° was 1989.

Time Series Summary for Austin-Bergstrom Airport Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1949	-5	2
2	1989	6	0
3	1951	8	1
4	2010	10	0
5	1983	11	0
-	1964	11	0

 

Thanks! The airport is in a more exurban area outside of downtown so it typically gets a couple degrees colder than the city, however the CAA might be strong enough for it not to matter. Camp Mabry is the more representative temp for downtown. 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow torch city in the LR....clown timeframe but 60 would feel tropical

The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. When that relaxes we’ll torch for sure on the SE ridge. 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

nothing to plow it with there-it will be cold for several days-will cripple the area....

Nope. The light glaze I mentioned shut the city down. My office told everyone to work from home and it was a disaster.