jm1220

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory.

My point/click has 3-7", so I'd think they'd issue a watch at least for western Suffolk and west. 

Start time for NYC looks to be about 6-7pm. Worst is 10pm-4am. 

18 minutes ago, Animal said:

12z nam is nothing really exciting.

I'd say it's at least 3-6"/4-8" areawide outside of maybe the twin forks. It really comes down overnight. It won't be a blockbuster but this winter it might as well be. 

I have about 4" outside now, very wet snow. May have been more and it settled beforehand, but I'd say 4-5" fell here. Nice scene outside for once. 

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Heavy snow.  Beautiful out

 

Dual pol says it might be finally snowing in LB. Brutal. 

Over 2". Still ripping. 

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Still pouring rain here in SW Suffolk.  Thinking my 4.2” seasonal total will remain steady for tonight....

The sleet line is heading south. Should be by you pretty soon. The low is headed offshore and taking the warm air SE with it. 

Over an inch. Really pasty. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's snow here with occasional sleet pinging, so something between 80-90 snow and 10-20 sleet I would guess percentage wise.  everything seems to be covered

Cool-you're in Oceanside? Up by Merrick Rd? 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The line actually went back north slightly again across Nassau and west Suffolk.  Ratios aren’t great with this so far.  Looks like it’s running 8:1 but it’ll probably improve  

Yep, definitely not high ratio stuff outside but it's heavy. 

Crazy but based on dual pol, Amityville and points east south of 27A, and barrier islands Jones Beach to Fire Island are rain and staying that way since the sleet line stopped moving. Long Beach is probably sleet and rain mix. Heavy sleet in Massapequa, Bellmore, Merrick. Amazing how this seems to work out so many times on Long Island. 

Ripping, about an inch of paste on the ground. 

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Still snowing heavily here in Metuchen with 1" falling in the last 40 minutes, as we're up to 2" now, as of 3:00 am.  Snow is piling up.  Temp has dropped to 31F.  My only worry is that it looks like that sleet line has crept back up almost to the Raritan, maybe 5 miles south of me.  If it stays snow, we could get 5".  I'll say it again - it's absolutely gorgeous out there.  

In a storm like this, the best place is just north of the sleet line. Models don't have the line advancing much further north-the coastal low should be headed ENE from here and drag cold air down. Sleet may tick north a little further but it won't surge, it's not like a SWFE. You may be one of the jackpot areas. 

11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No, just my call. Suffering from missing out on the SECSy ongoing event being upstate. Mid March last year was epic away from the reporting stations  obviously the March 7thish white rain typical March storm was tough but there's something to be said about this recent March snow fest. Even in a shit winter NYC somehow reaches avg or above.

Still a ways from being above average.

If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. 

If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. 

Heavy snow here and ground covered good, maybe half an inch. 

Sleet line looks about as far north as it's going in NJ, parts of it are pulling back. But LI radar is showing the typical resistance to the sleet line clearing the south shore, or even making it there in Suffolk. Wouldn't be surprised if in LB it's raining with sleet mixed in. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, from like Jackson Heights down to Jamaica-Howard Beach area out east to a line from about Hicksville down to Oceanside had between 30-34" inches!

What a weird (but exciting) winter that went from a record warm December to a record January snowstorm to the first below zero temp in February (on Valentine's Day no less!) since the early 60s!  We had 40-50 inches of snow in a winter that was about 10 degrees warmer than this one!

 

 

 

I flew home 10 days after that storm hit, and all that was left were mall piles. Couldn't have been good to have all that snow melt right away, it's always better to have a solid snow cover like 2010-11 did. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but to be fair the ones that flip over aren't the really historic ones anyway.  Nothing like Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2 or Jan 2016.  Those are worth about a thousand of the changeover ones.

 

Jan 2016 which I missed in Texas.  (but yeah that really sucked)

Long Beach definitely cashes in at times. The late March storm last winter was awesome when it went to town that night. A foot of paste on everything, and the boardwalk adds to all of it. 1/27/11 was insane for the 4 hours it dumped on us that night. Boxing Day 2010 was probably my favorite blizzard scene in LB. Jan 1996 is still my #1 snow event, but from what I heard Jan 2016 likely surpassed it. Southern Nassau/Queens was really the bullseye that time. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Welcome to the north shore. Early flip is nice 

2/13/14 and 2/7/13 I will never forget. I'm easily owed 20" just between those two. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Heavy snow now. Quick flip. Line is along LIE

Yup. Cool tracking it, and how accurate it is (it really is accurate). Looks like it's in Melville, Deer Park area now. Inching its way south in Nassau down to around Valley Stream. 

Mostly snow here. Still a little sleet. 

6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Dual pol suggests still snow in Manhattan?

Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's like 70% snow 30% rain here, looks mostly snow but not sticking to anything even though it's falling pretty hard.

based on the radar it looks like the snow line has gotten all the way down to Toms River (where the precip is the heaviest?) but as you go east on the Island it comes up north, to the point that it's raining on the north shore from about Wading River on east.  There's a second blob of rain around Port Jefferson surrounded by snow on all sides.

 

Residual warm mid level air that should get mixed out as heavier precip comes in. The very south shore was always a worry for hanging onto warm air at the surface or mid levels longer. As the low gets going offshore, that should be gone as well but it's always a question how long it lingers. 

Toms River is rain, where the yellow, green line on dual pol is where it's sleet. Below that is rain, and it's the same color as north of the line. On Long Island on Upton radar you can also start to see it settle south on the north shore now. Most of Nassau and my area in Suffolk is still sleet by that radar. 

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

All sleet. Vomit

Sleet here too with a mangled flake or two. We should be snowing soon, sleet line is sinking south from the sound and also coming east from the city. 

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

All snow as of about 1:40 am here in Metuchen (Edison) - coming down moderately - looks like some heavy stuff is incoming - hoping it stays as snow and doesn't transition back to sleet - anyone know if that approaching line (from the south) of 35-40 dBZ stuff is snow or sleet?  Guess I'll find out in about 10 minutes.  We had 1/4" of sleet (at 3-4:1 sleet to snow, that's about 0.075-0.10" LE) and have about 1/4" of snow on top of that already.  Should pile up quickly if it stays all snow.  32F still.  Beautiful out there.  

Sleet line per dual pol looks to have settled just south of Staten Island, a line from Sandy Hook to East Brunswick and west from there. 

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just got back in from being out and what an ugly set of runs.....buuuut, still gotta watch that area moving into NYC. Guidance has been fizzling that too quickly all night...it actually may end up benefitting CT more than anywhere. 

 

I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. 

Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little.