jm1220

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.  

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above  850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing. 

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Freezing rain storms are pretty rare in these parts. Climo says if anything we are more likely to see sleet? 

Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think. 

The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down. 

Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer. 

UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. 

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster.

Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? 

I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. 

I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro. 

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

It would take a lot going right for there to be snow down to NYC with this. There’s cold at the surface but a nasty warm layer above from the warm air being lifted in the overrunning. I think the ice storm makes sense here but the question is where. Probably the first time ever I’m rooting for the sleet storm. It’ll make the snowpack way denser and bulletproof. 

On 1/30/2022 at 2:22 PM, psv88 said:

Just drove around western Suffolk. The difference between Huntington and Melville and Dix hills and commack is pretty substantial. Once you hit exit 42 on the northern amounts really go up. Looked like a solid 4-5” inches more in commack than Huntington. I could definitely see Huntington only getting 12’” or so. 

I just drove up Rt 231 from Babylon to Jericho Tpke and Sunrise Highway east from Wantagh. The whole area from Seaford to Babylon to around the LIE got slammed. I definitely believe the 20+ totals there. Amounts decreased a little in Dix Hills and a little more by the time you get to my house. It looks almost dead on like after the 2/1 storm last year which was 15” for me, so that’s probably what I got this time here. Looks a little more overall than Long Beach has but there was a lot more drifting there. Some lawns there are bare, some clogged in snow so I think 12” for Long Beach is good. 
 

Tomorrow I’ll drive down Vets Highway past MacArthur to Patchogue and really salivate. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With the position of the high and the strength, expect this to trend south.

Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even though sleet is obviously mixed in the pink, that would accumulate.

Pretty much a weenie GFS run overall.

I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement. 

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would be happy with the warmer Euro and GEM for our area since I am not a big fan of ice. 
 

 

I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere. 

I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Atlantic City-incredible. 3 significant winter storms for them this month. 

For the season I probably have about 25” in Huntington Station. 

The bickering is ridiculous, like hurts my eyeballs to look at ridiculous. 

Elmont 17.3”, I’m calling BS on that one. 

Orient 25”,’ wow, but they were sitting under that final band for hours. There are probably lots of 20-25” in the Hamptons and N Fork. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes the tiny flake size?  is that a function of temp (higher temps give you giant flake size as the flakes melt together and refreeze on each other) and you get sound effect snow in Long Beach?

 

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

ah okay so Jan 2016 totals with higher than a 10:1 ratio can happen with higher winds if those other factors (flake size, etc.) are better?

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The wind absolutely killed ratios here.

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. Even my 12-1 assumption was too weenie. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. 

Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter. 

16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. 

The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: 

JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9"

LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4"

ISP ____ 1.2 + 23.2 = 24.4"

BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5"

EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

JFK ended with 12.6". LGA 10.5", ISP 24.7", Central Park 8.3", Newark 7.7", BDR 10.5". 

NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Double Jan 2018 and you have Jan 2016.  So see, you didn't actually miss all of Jan 2016, you got to experience half of it in Jan 2018.

If you look at it that way.....

 

I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted. 

42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Oh trust me, I love reading the Ne board.  Want you guys to cash in.

 

NYC and dc I always hope they fringe or dry slot

 

and that MLK storm was absurd…everyone up to the Canadian border had nixing issues.

NYC got fringed today relatively so you sorta got your wish lol. But if it went how it “should” have went maybe the death band would have gone west of the city. Boston and SE MA were good to go for days with this one other than the lol GFS. NYC is the toughest city in the Northeast to forecast for by far with almost any coastal winter storm because of how many ways it can go wrong but right with a 50 mile shift. El Niño juiced Miller As will always bury DC but may fringe NYC and could like 2/6/10 get confluence crushed south by 30 miles.  But Jan 2016’s El Niño monster is Central Park’s #1 because of a very late tick north (which I missed because I was living in TX at the time). Storms like today’s, 2/8/13, Juno 2015 NYC is on the SW end and can miss the action. But 1/4/18, Lindsey Storm 1969 and 12/30/00 it worked out amazingly. We don’t have a wheelhouse storm type like Boston or DC have. We pick and choose lol. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's what I thought...TBH, I would have rather that, than missing 30" by 15mi, but I still would have complained.

It was me to a lesser extent today. Band started forming over me and that’s partly what buried Islip. I have 8” less than 10-15 miles NE of me. 

12-13” of snow where I am is not a fail by any means, and it looks like an all timer at Islip. Long Island had an awesome event. But have to wonder what would’ve been. The people who have to really complain are CT. Logan may have way jumped over Central Park because of the dumbbell!! (Who knows but something to think about)