jm1220

As others have said it'll really be a nowcast with how the second low evolves. Hopefully the NAM/GFS are right on it. 

16 minutes ago, binbisso said:

The new cansips improved significantly for this coming winter with a poleward aleutian ridge and a very cold Canada 

In any Nina that really defines whether it’s a winter success or fail here. With no sharp Aleutian ridge we get flooded with Pacific air, with that ridge we get shots of cold air from the pole. Any help from the NAO is also a plus. But any Nina is strongly driven by the Pacific pattern since the jet is often so strong. 

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12Z GFS coming in wet for NYC and north monday....only 3 days away-could it be?!?!?

Guess it would be fitting for the south shore for the rain to shift from missing to the west/south to the north now.

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

One thing we've seen with our warming climate is we're still getting a good amount of snow in the winter. It has become a Colorado-like climate in the winter with the combination of warm temps and big snowstorms. So hopefully we can continue to pull off a good amount of snow in our warmer winters, but of course there's no guarantee that this will continue.

We’re nowhere close to being too warm for snow in the winters. The main problem we’ll keep having is bad storm tracks when +NAO/AO dominate. 

20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

No Hurricane here this month:               

D3 here we come!!  

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sure the standard ENSO state applies anymore. 

There's been a disconnect for several seasons now

There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks. 

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Obviously with summer being so dry, this is going to have an impact on our winter. What are the analogs for upcoming winters following extremely dry summers for us?

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

1 hour ago, Fantom X said:

I've always wondered why the oak trees on the south Shore are so small, thin and not too tall. I've always assumed storm damage and winds but maybe cyclical droughts cause them to die off now and then..

Near the barrier islands, many trees died from saltwater inundation during Sandy. In Long Beach there are very few tall trees anymore, most are newly planted after Sandy. We had a major nor'easter in March 2010 with 75-80mph winds that also destroyed many trees. But what trees there are on the south shore look awful in general this summer. 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM being a bit wetter gives me hope...further west one is the better for this...

Color me totally stunned. 

Brief shower here with the cell that went through Melville. 

24 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

That cell over Long Beach looks decent. If only it would just hold together by the time it gets here.

Radar says maybe 0.50” there. It was tiny and flew by. Enough to make some puddles and that’s it, wayyy more needed. 

Long Beach might actually get a T-storm, it’ll be close. Fingers crossed. 

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You'd think with all that heat things would be more active 

Tons of dry air being funneled into the Atlantic from the Sahara for one thing, and also increased shear. Nina usually reduces the shear. 

91 here. Thankfully dewpoints are low. 

Radar estimating 3-4” in Greenlawn/E Northport this afternoon. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Flash flood warning for my area now. Non stop loud thunder. Some strikes overhead with no rain. Some areas to my west will end up with 5-6” of rain 

Greenlawn to be the only place on LI where you’ll find them anymore. They had the max 3-4” amounts. 

Over an inch here with these storms, constant loud thunder for the last hour. Just east of me has 3” per radar. 

42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Hearing some thunder with those storms to my NW

Those are just to my east. Loud thunder.

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s really going to get bad… massive tree die off incoming. Not to mention the fire danger


.

In Long Beach it looks terrible. Most of the trees there are small, new trees planted post Sandy and most of them are losing leaves. Lawns are all dead which haven’t been regularly watered since June. 

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro & GFS are showing more tropical development in the longer range so this quiet will break eventually.

However yes its been unusually quiet and very anti-Nina.

I think using base ENSO states to determine what the season will be no longer applies in the AGW era. 

Maybe the winter can also be anti Nina but I think we know how that will turn out.  

13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

A lot of places along the north shore of Suffolk from about Huntington Twp. and east received close to and even over 1” with that storm.

Good for the areas that got it. Slid just south of me so I just got about 0.1”. 

3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

This maybe such a big epic bust for some areas while others cashed in.  Nyc west, and far eastern long Island did well

Never expected much here. The models targeted NJ more and more closer to the event which is all I needed to see. There were 2 very brief showers here that made the street wet for a minute total. We need a large synoptic weather system here for it to rain, otherwise we’re out of luck until the fall sometime when coastal storms or those synoptic storms come back. Looking likely to me that places east of NJ where pop up storms are rare will get bumped up to D3 soon. 

41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe a .01 of an inch and radar looks awful. Looks like we continue to water 

While the town still allows us to. 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same ol pattern of models overdoing rain....models now not showing much if anything for tomorrow either.

We need a larger synoptic system like a tropical storm. These minor frontal passages won’t do it. 

An extremely extremely meh event. Had a brief shower that wet the ground, that’s it so far and may be it total.