jm1220

The band is expected to drift south again later today so their snow isn’t done. It isn’t staying long since it will eventually die off as the wind becomes WNW but there could definitely be another 6” or so in the city. That would bring Buffalo up to 36-40” it looks like. So if that’s what a ‘miss’ counts for I’ll sign up in a second. The highest totals will probably be around 90” in the south suburbs. Unthinkable since NYC’s all time snowiest winter in 95-96 was 75”. 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a snow dinosaur is about to devour the car lol. Unbelievable. 

That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too. 

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow. 

59 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I have driven thru lake effect snow before maybe 7-8 years ago and what an experience.  We went from clear skies to a full on blizzard in the matter of less than a few miles. I was driving an Acura Tsx at the time and that thing handled like a snowmobile.  Everyone and there mother and fathers where stuck on the side of the roads and I even saw a construction van sitting in a pond off the side of the highway. I took I-90 all the way to I-81 and went up past watertown on my way to Massena.  at one point there had to be a few feet on the ground and atleast a few inches on the highway.  Needless to say when i arrived at my destination i had a foot+ of ice buildup under my car.

When I was at Penn State there were brief lake effect bands that made it there a few times and they were quite an experience. Once right before Easter there was 5” of snow in 90 minutes. Very fluffy and was gone the next day. Much more often there are blinding snow squalls that last 5 minutes and coat the ground, but cause spin outs/accidents everywhere. 

41, nasty cold rain. 

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave,  If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago 

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t go full Nina roaring flat Pacific jet and MJO lock in Phase 6 like we saw as this Nina got underway 3 seasons ago. I’m not thrilled about the marine heatwave popping up again north of Australia and cool western Indian Ocean. That’s helped wreck our Pacific pattern in the past. As long as the Aleutian ridge can spike to near the Arctic Circle we’ll at least have cold air nearby. 

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Agree!  I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December.  Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.

If we want a snowy winter here we have to hope for at least one decent Dec event. Dec with below normal snow almost always portends a lousy winter overall in a Nina. 

I made it down to 36 last night. 

18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Might not get much rain from this after all 

The east side of these systems always underperform on rain at this latitude. Best we can hope for IMO is a line of T-storms to come through with the front, that seems to be what much of our rain is on the models. But if that doesn't materialize some of us may see only a few brief showers. Isaias/Fay/Ida etc had very little rain east of the track. As bad as Sandy was, I think LI had under an inch of rain when predictions were for 3-6". 

The east side does often overperform on the wind but it doesn't look to be at a level that would be worse than a nuisance. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

At this rate it's going to Cleveland and we might not get anything

It’s phasing into a deep trough and it’ll be a strong cold front passing through so hopefully it does get interesting beyond a windy day for a while. Could be some good T-storm activity ahead of the front, but it could just be the windy/showery day too. We’ll just have to see. 

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs continues to trend west

 

At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left.

I think this ends up

being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 

How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though?

I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. 

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region.

It's becoming likely there will be a PRE on Fri as well before what's left of Nicole makes it here. That looks to be well west of us. Looking like it's becoming the usual PA/NJ soaker and NYC east showery/windy with these systems. At least we have something interesting happening.

My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. 

Long Beach made it to 79. Nice beach day on 11/7 lol. 

Wow, low 80s in much of Nassau. Even Long Beach up to 78. 77 at my place. And the lower humidity makes it feel awesome. 

Last bit of heating with the downslope W flow. Much of Nassau up to near 80 now. 

75 here. Feels like mid September. 

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro brings the tropical system into Florida later in the week. We get a PRE with heavy overrunning rains along the stalled front. Best winds this run are out toward Cape Cod. But that could change in time. First interior Northeast snow of the season possible beyond day 10 with record -EPO.
 

 

That day 10 looks frigid with the ridge spiking north into the Arctic Ocean. Hopefully as we end the month we can start some blocking. 

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Loved that storm got 22” from it constant thunder snow at the height of it

16" I believe in Long Beach. Was a very heavy wet snow. Only time I ever had thunder sleet which thankfully actually turned over to snow quickly. The height of it around midnight was absolutely incredible, must have been 3-4"/hr rate. The snow cover between then and the early Feb melt down was amazing too. That period from the 12/26/10 storm to that one was just as prolific as anything I've lived through. 

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Nope

1/27/11? One of my all time fav's. 

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

2 of the greats (Forky/Euro) go down in the same storm 

I just moved to Texas before that one hit/didn’t hit so I was kinda bummed but nothing like the agony of watching 1/23/16 end up an all timer from there. Long Beach had 14-15” from Juno but probably 30” from Jonas. 

Dense pea soup this morning. Worst fog I’ve seen in quite a while. 

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

After a high of 68 degrees, already down to 52.

Down to 45. Quick drop on clear dry days like these.