jm1220

It's sleeting in Philly, which I think is before they were expecting to per dual pol. HRRR is showing a warm layer just above 850mb that may try to sneak in. 

Light snow Huntington Station. Starting to stick a little on car tops. 

Amazing gradient in snow on the ground from yesterday driving north. North of the LIE/Northern State is really night and day in terms of snow left. I'm still fully snowcovered here, a couple-few inches in places. There was nothing but a few slushy piles in Long Beach. 

Some light rain in Long Beach. About to head back to Huntington before things get too dicey. 

1 minute ago, NyJosh said:

Here’s the million dollar question for me: I’m in south Nassau by Long Beach. Do I take the snow blower out of the shed (which I have yet to do this winter) or is it going to be pure slurpee slop when I wake up in the morning like all of the other recent storms?

i suspect a basic shovel to push the slop off the driveway is all I’ll need, but don’t want to have to shovel the back yard to get to the snow blower in the morning. 

TV weather isn’t helpful as they all say “could be less if warmer or more if colder”. News 12 is now calling for 4-8” across Nassau County. 

I’d expect at least 3-5” there, since there’ll be several hours at least of good snow before warm air comes close. If I had to wager from going through countless of these type storms, I’d say it mixes at some point but there may not be much of the storm left by then. 

2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

I think someone in north jersey/ S New York State / SW CT sees 12”

The two jackpot areas will probably be over the Hudson Valley/N NJ/SW CT where ratios are better and banding can set up, and just north of where the rain/sleet makes it and there’s the highest amount of precip. 12” is probably the max with this given how fast the storm’s hauling. 

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

 

Once its over? That's not good, right?

The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air. 

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm  just hoping I can get 9" here. That seems like a stretch to me. Season total so far is 31", so that would put me at 40". Still way below average  but it is what it is.

40” wouldn’t be way below average there. Isn’t your average about 45”? 

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You seem to have higher confidence for this one JM. Hope you're batting average is still good. Now, where will the subsidence hit this time?  Would like it not to be us for a change.

I doubt the problem this time would be subsidence but who knows-it could always be a factor if heavy banding sets up. Down in LB I’d be more worried about how far north the warm air gets and how much is left if the warm air makes it. 

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Cool. Hope your right. City area needs a good snow. Even here, we've just been nickel and diming it all winter.

Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close. 

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd be cautious setting your hopes up high for those big snow totals in the city and coast. Hope it happens, but ,even here, its supposed to start as rain. That is not a good sign for the city and coast. I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts,  but, a few hrs of rain or mix will cut down on those numbers being progged. I may be wrong?

There won’t be hours of rain. It’ll be brief before the column cools down and snow makes it to the ground. That’s what’s happening in MD and PA now. 

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in.....

They probably mean coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties, especially south of Toms River. In that area a lot of what falls will probably be mix or rain. I-195 runs due east from Trenton. 

The crap about Snowman19, trolling, banning, etc can stop now. Thanks! Those posts will quickly go bye bye. 

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is a solid 4-8" storm for pretty much the entrie subforum except eastern LI and SE Monmouth Co and Ocean Co.   I'm sure some areas will see 10" near or just nw of i95.

 

The south shore (Nassau/W Suffolk) will be sweating the rain/snow line tomorrow night. Hopefully it stays just offshore. Eastern Suffolk I think changes over for a decent part of it, enough to cut back. I think just north of where the rain snow line ends up really dumps too, just like last night. There’ll also be a good dump before the warm mid level air comes close. 

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If i were to make a snow map (and you all know how i feel about snow maps) for this storm it would be this.

 

Not to go back on my preaching about using soundings not snow maps, it looks still like it’s on the warm side of guidance. Definitely warmer than the RGEM if it’s spreading the heaviest snow north of the Tappan Zee. 

Doesn’t change my thinking at all, but I was thinking we’d see a correction back NW after the big SE shift last night. Models today generally went back more amped. 

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 500mb pattern is quite similar...very flat and fast (in fact the flow is even faster tonight overall (Tonight: left: last night: right)

 

Here is GFS tonight for Monday morning vs last night

700 looks similar and in fact models had 700 low developing around eastern MA. Doesn't look to happen Monday (obviously not always needed, but helpful). 

Biggest difference I see is the 850 inflow with a much stronger jet (like Scott mentioned) and closed off low but that looks to be way south to benefit CT. Looks to benefit more of RI/SE MA. All the best fronto/VV's also scrape southern CT and eastern areas. 

And tomorrow could very well present the same issues with convection negatively influencing things...that I downplayed yesterday, but can't do that tomorrow when it's obvious there will be even more convection at play here. 

In CT I think we're relying on intense WAA and some piece of vort to move overhead (like the NAM is showing). Otherwise to me it looks like all the best lifting and forcing and heaviest snow hit southern CT, RI, and into SE MA. 

Unless there is something I'm totally missing here...what would allow for this to definitively track farther north and west than what happened last night? What is the key piece saying that will happen? 

Well, I hope you’re right. The amped trend tonight is leaving the coast down here sweating a little. 

GFS gets the mid level warmth about to the barrier islands for a time. 

This could be another one where I'm glad to be in Huntington, although I'm still pretty sure all do well away from the twin forks. 

This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

I’m not too concerned for most of us, unless the models collectively shift NW tonight. SE Suffolk is a different story, most models other than the cold RGEM have the R/S line around there for a good chunk of the storm. Could be a couple of inches over the forks and 7-8” in NW Suffolk and most of Nassau. 

10 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. 

Use soundings, stay away from the snow maps. 

I'd probably go 6-8" areawide at this point, except 3-6" in SE Suffolk and down along the NJ shore where it probably will mix/change to rain. Some of the banding features/lift on the meso models look impressive, and there could be higher amounts to 10" where those set up. Only inhibiting factor is the speed it's trucking along it. It'll be a less than 12 hour storm for most. 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle 

The GFS moved NW at 12z. It's too early to count out a late west trend. On the coast at least I'd be more worried about mixing cutting into totals than it being too suppressed. I don't think you need to worry about suppression until you're NW of I-84. 

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

looks to me the 12z GFS shows a start time evening on Sunday ending midday on Monday.

End time will be before then, I'd say it's over by dawn or soon after Monday. It'll be an 8-10 hour event for the most part. 

Long Beach according to parents had an inch. I'll be there later this afternoon. Not too surprised since the immediate shore really struggled with sleet/rain for a while. 

4 minutes ago, justinj said:

As of right now how does the north shore of western Suffolk look for this event? We seem to always jackpot during storms like this for Long Island 

Pretty golden, I'd say if anyone goes over 6" it would be this area. But it wouldn't take too much of a NW trend at the end to have mixing come into play. If it stays like this at 0z tonight I'd say we're in for a decent event at least. 

GFS actually went west a bit and got stronger with the precip. There's still time for last minute trends with this. I was thinking there might be an overtrend SE last night. I still wouldn't write off some mixing on the immediate coast.