jm1220

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

My guess is for NYC south the majority will be in the form of liquid precip later next week.........that was quite a jump north in 6 hours

Pretty sure it’ll be an event where we hope for a pounding when the mid layers are still cold enough that can add up to 3-5” unless the evolution changes drastically. The real goods will be Boston to Buffalo. And hopefully the high doesn’t back down or become one that scoots out as soon as the WAA starts. These SWFEs have to evolve perfectly for around NYC to do well. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Not On the map that was posted. It’s being included as snow on a 10-1 ratio. 

Yes-I never look at those maps other than for lols. At least that map gives the disclaimer. 

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't sleet counted as snow at a 2:1 ratio?

 

3:1. 1” liquid=3” sleet. 

I’m not totally dismissing the GFS either but I’d wager pretty big that it’s a good bit too suppressed and cold, and that NYC would get a lot of mixing with a setup like this. This looks like one of the 07-08 SWFE events that ended up clobbering I-90 and we hoped for a few hours of heavy snow to start. It does work out sometimes like 2/22/08. I’d like to see a lot more confluence in place to force the redevelopment south enough to keep us all snow. Right now I don’t see it there and see it being a more typical SWFE outcome. And we’re forgetting how way much warmer the Canadian is, although that might also be overdone on the other end. 

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Thats why south Jersey and southeast PA are the jackpot zones

That map counts sleet as snow. I'd be stunned if S NJ and Philly are jackpotting in a SWFE. 

S+ and gusty winds. Quick dusting on my deck/grass.

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro completely torches the midlevels before the precip even starts

Way too early to pin down but the mid level low tracks are key for who and how much mixing happens. If the 700/850 lows go NW of you, there will be a lot of sleet/mixing. For most of the storm to be snow anywhere you’d want those lows to redevelop south of you. 

GFS is interesting but as others pointed out likely too suppressed. These storms highly favor I-90. Hopefully we pick up a few hours of heavy snow to start on the front end but unless there’s a major change in the evolution it looks like a fairly typical SWFE heading into a strong high to me. Thankfully at this point the warm ocean isn’t the kiss of death near the coast it would be in December so hopefully most of the storm wouldn’t be a washout. 

Decent burst here a couple minutes ago. Too warm for any to stick however. Hopefully some of these squalls make it here later. 

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Street is re-whitened here.  27°

Haven't measured in a bit, but it was 4.5" last time I did.  We're gonna be close to 5" on this latest "strung out, wide right, less than an inch, pointless, heartless, four-flushing, baby-eating" snowman19 storm.

I gave into that, my bad. 

One last band developing over NJ? Could at least give another coating now that the sun is down especially. Just starting to stick on pavement here but now it’s just flurries. 

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They only record .22 liquid though so I'm not sure...its an undermeasurement for sure but given the reliability of that ASOS to be close on LE I bet they got 2.3 or 2.4 at most...there were numerous little mesoscale area of subsidence and stonger bands

If that's the case then probably. We lucked out down here a lot more than I thought, seriously would've been near a warning event if it was a few degrees colder. I definitely admit I was wrong thinking this would be a bust. You called the better than models showed event! Maybe one more burst coming up from Monmouth, fingers crossed lol. Flurries now. 

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

ok, that 1.6" at KNYC is ridiculous.  I was eyeballing a solid 3" + on surfaces around UWS/Riverside Park between 12 and 1.

If I managed 3" here on the barrier island south shore I'm sure Central Park where it was actually colder had 3-4".

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Snow is still backbuilding to southwestern Nassau, this should keep going until sometime between 5-6 here.

 

 

Down to 31 here, maybe we can really start to accumulate soon if it can keep up. This would be an easy 5” if it was 29-30 instead. But this is a great winter reminder/mood snow event and no shoveling lol. 

Up to just about 3” in Long Beach with another moderate burst now (still nothing on pavement). Very pleasantly surprised by this, I was almost certain this would be a bust. 

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

30 up here on the north shore. Piling up

Yeah. Coming down hard here on the south shore but barely accumulating. I’ll be back after the super bowl, it’ll be a nice sight. 

Wow, heavy snow now. If only it was 30 instead of 32-33.

Long Beach

Almost heavy snow in this burst. Maybe we can make it to 3” here. Still decent stuff coming to LI for the next few hours. 

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Good thing, the 3” on cold surfaces on the uws must be imaginary 

I gladly eat crow. Wish I was at my place on the north shore though, sounds like double what I have in Long Beach there. 

2” in Long Beach, cold surfaces only. I gladly eat crow for the city. Nice event-second snowy Super Bowl in a row! Snow picking up again with this batch coming in. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

funny the south shore was supposed to do the best, what happened, is this a coastal hugger now lol

 

Has nothing to do with the low track, it's still a sheared out POS in general. It's about where the frontogenesis banding we're seeing set up now ends up and pivots as well as how fast the cold can get in. There are some good jet dynamics coming in to help out the banding/lifting (part of the sheared POS evolution as it won't collaborate with the well out to sea low) but I have a winners/losers sense of how this turns out not to mention the 60F most of us saw today which means light rates will stick to cold surfaces only when air temps are 32 or over. Heavy rates will help drop the temps too.

Hopefully this time tomorrow after the Bengals pull off the win we all have a wintry outcome. But many setups like this fail especially near the city.

Where the fronto band happens will determine who gets the car topper and who can score a few inches or a lucky 5-6. HRRR insists it's west of 95 over NJ, other models have it over NYC and LI. We'll see soon what's right.

It could happen if moderate to heavy snow can train over the city for sure, but the short range models seem to be focusing west of I-95 for that where it’ll also be a few degrees colder. Snow maps show what they do but don’t be too disappointed if they don’t pan out for the city and where I am in Long Beach. My house in Huntington Station where it’ll be colder might get the few inches for sure. I want the good surprise as much as anyone but I’m just never big on these wait on the cold air to come in for a weak system like this. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Car topper? It's going to be cold enough to stick everywhere. I don't get why everyone thinks it will not.

Hard for me to think of any recent event where we’re waiting as temps are in the 40s (60 today) for it to cool enough as precip is starting up for good snow accumulation especially in the city. Hopefully this is the needle in the haystack where it’s wrong. 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It has a tendency if temps are marginal to overdo things...in this event I feel we are just below the safe threshold based on T/Td wetbulb that most places should be cold enough but during the day we may lose some to sun angle 

If most in NYC somehow get 2” from this I’d consider it a huge win. My thought for NYC is car topper to the 2” in Bayside/Whitestone.