jm1220

Roosevelt Field hot spot once again. Temps in that area-Garden City to Uniondale in the upper 90s. 

East Williston 100. 

93/76/106.

We’re paying now for all the onshore flow days over the last couple months. Helped the waters warm up to around 80, and now the seabreeze just makes things worse unless it’s an Ambrose Jet. 

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

When it’s this hot this early I’d say 100 is possibility outside of the normal hot spots.

If we keep this more westerly wind component today, it will easily be 95+ away from the beaches. 

92 already. Today’s gonna be a scorcher. 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher resolution HRRR has a high of 99° north of the LIE today ahead of the sea breeze front. 

 

Blechhh. But it’ll feel just as disgusting if it’s 95/70 vs the 90/75 it’s been around here. 

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The usual warm spots will reach 95°-100° today before the scattered thunderstorms arrive this afternoon.

Might actually be a hotter day here near the coast than the last few because of a more westerly component to the wind. Hopefully this isn’t yet another dry frontal passage. Be thrilled if you see anything more than a brief shower that wets the ground.

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Our air temperatures may be a bit cooler out here and we may have a stronger breeze, but we make up for it with the higher humidity and dew points. Places that are hotter usually have more drier air mixing down as well.

I'm at 86.5/76.8 ... temp/dewpoint

 

 

For sure. 90/75 which I have now is 101 heat index. 98/65 is also 101 heat index. It’s atrocious outside. Last evening wasn’t terrible with the breeze once the sun set. 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

looks like that trough will finally give us our rubber band snapping deluge

Maybe in the meantime we can all aim our A/C’s and fans upward so this disgusting humidity can condense and form T-storms? It’s always a matter of time here before the drenching comes but the sooner the better lol. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Three record highs at Boston during the last several days as the Gulf of Maine extreme  marine heatwave continues. 

 

 

 

There must be a downslope component as well when winds are SW. There’s a hilly/elevated area to the SW of the city where Blue Hill is. 

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Almost had some rain here but again it just died and moved near me but not over me. I shouldn't lie, I may have gotten enough rain to make the car tops a little wet.

I had 4-6 drops here. All it did was make the humidity worse. 

21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Very light sun shower here, just enough to pump up the dewpoint to 77

Happy sweat soaked birthday. 

89 here. Disgusting/atrocious. 

15 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Based on current satellite, radar and soundings not going to be any meaningful rainfall today across the area.  Maybe a few small pulse storms that will come and go quickly.  Another dry day.  Really starting to suck.

Starting to? 

92 here. 

South shore drought lives on, storms had no chance once they reached the sea breeze. That plus losing the daytime heating killed it. We need a more organized synoptic system to get the rain where it’s needed. Not a drop east of the Verrazano. 

Up to 91. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Snowfall for us always comes down to how much blocking we get. Models aren’t very good at forecasting blocking beyond 1-2 weeks unless we get a major SSW. So we often have to wait until winter starts to get an idea of how the blocking and snowfall situation will work out. The weird thing about this rare 3rd year La Niña is that it didn’t follow a strong to super El Niño like after 72-73 and 97-98. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1

The weird thing about it, says L’Heureux, is that this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate¹. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” says L’Heureux.

I wonder if this is related to the multi decadal PDO/PNA cycle which has likely gone to the negative state? Unfortunately we’re due for a lousy late 90s like stretch of winters. And likely amplified by the warming climate. We actually lucked out last winter especially on LI with the good January. But as long as this Nina sticks around, there’s a greater likelihood that we see inland tracks and lousier outcomes here. 

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Awful. And the mosquitoes and yellow jackets are out in force. 

Yep. No mosquitoes would be the one silver lining of it being dry like the south shore. 

And the disgusting humidity is back. 

6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

ECMWF now also a little too far south with the placement of WAR to allow for a record breaking or prolonged heatwave for our area at least through August 6th. A weak b-door front coming through late on Aug 5th or the night of the 5th. It does not preclude a record-breaking or prolonged heatwave from happening a little later during the month of August and the ensembles continue to show a favorable pattern of it.

WX/PT

 

The tendency has been for the best ridging to be over the plains, so wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see that continue. Maybe the ring of fire can bring us some widespread rain in that case. 

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Less than that...im some spots less than 10 miles.

Yup, essentially from one end of Rt 135 to the other, drought to deluge. 

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2022

Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. 

 

• Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

Amazing how within a 30 minute drive you can go from plenty of rain and moisture for the summer to charred flash drought here on the island. 

3 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

 

That was a truly historic day. A foot of snow is nice, but a foot of rain is another beast. ISP holds the state record for the most amount of rain in such a short amount of time. It really was one of the most significant rainfall/flooding events ever in our area given the time frame and considering it wasn't from a tropical system.

The worst I can remember locally is the 10” of rain the weekend before Irene in Long Beach Aug 2011. It almost all fell in one morning and turned every street into a river. The worst ever for me personally was 16” of rain in one day in Austin in Oct 2015 which was from the remnants of E PAC Hurricane Patricia. That by far was the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen. 

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Everything fizzled once it got to about riverhead area east just some rains

That’s probably where the storms lost support from the sea breeze front so they collapse. 

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Do you think cells will start to fire off NW of the city we have been bone dry for weeks??

Hopefully, since the front is still well to our west but it probably depends on how much heating/instability can be generated under all the cloudiness.