jm1220

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Ian moved from 24.6 N, 82.9 W at 10 PM to 26.1 N, 82.7 W at 9 AM. So, this was a move of only 0.2 east vs 1.5 north the last 11 hours. This equates to an average direction of movement of only 7 degrees vs the 15 degrees that the NHC has been saying. Compared to the 11 PM NHC forecast, it is now 15 miles due west of that projected track point. That may not seem like much, but that makes a significant difference regarding landfall point due to the angle of the FL west coast relative to the direction of movement.

Yes, almost due N movement with a tick east from time to time. Maybe the frictional effects will drag the center or at least eyewall onshore. But that Venice to Punta Gorda area is in huge trouble. Maybe Sarasota if it keeps the due N movement. I wonder if St Pete will have problems later with the N/NE reverse storm surge? 

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Eye continues to clear.  Nothing short of spectacular at the worse possible time.  So similar to Charley (only much larger) in the hours prior to landfall.  Surge and near and to the right of landfall will be devastating.  Per latest from TPC:

Peak Storm Surge Inundation has been increased for the following 
locations:

* From Englewood to Bonita Beach...12-18 ft
* Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* From Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft

The 12-18' foot forecast areas are no joke and life threatening is not an exaggeration.  Bad.

 

Should be noted too that those surge heights are WITHOUT waves added on top. 

6 minutes ago, AChilders said:

Nothing but canals and houses. 

Yep-wow. They’re in trouble. Hopefully for them it ticks left. Guess the hordes moving to FL in the last 15 years have to go somewhere. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Mostly new development so hopefully able to withstand these winds.

The slow movement might increase the impact of the winds but the fact so much property is a few feet above sea level is what’s going to be really devastating in these places. Entire towns are literally built around canals in these places, and they’ll be under 15 feet of water. 

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Recon has found a central pressure of 933.1 mb, so Ian continues to flex and  is still deepening 

folks near Ft Myers better hope the cane stays on the water longer and comes in North of them. 

Ft Myers might not be so bad. It’s the area from Sanibel to maybe Sarasota that’s in line to get wrecked along with any bays/harbors that will funnel water in. Thousands and thousands of homes on tiny canals in that stretch only a few feet above sea level along with plenty of built up beachfront property. 

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Have to assume an extreme wind warning is coming very soon. Eyewall knocking on the door of the coast next few hours. Also frictional convergence should tighten up the eyewall and close it off again.

Yep, eyewall looks to be only 15 miles off the beach which is where the extremely strong surge and wind would be. Only a few hours away from Captiva on north. 

Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow. 

Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. 

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch. 

10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time. 

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out. 

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers.

Lakes must be really warm for that to happen. 

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell. 

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.00” at the wantagh meso. Really just a bad joke at the point. .05” maybe with the tail
End


.

Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

Rain starting up again. I have 1.3-1.5" already by radar estimate. And finally S Nassau getting in on some of the action. 

I don't think any hail here but it's an absolute gusher. 

Downpour, frequent lightning. We'll see if any hail makes it here. 

Looks like a hail core around Albertson area headed toward Jericho.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Those storms look nasty 

About to get rocked here, loud thunder currently

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php

Opal had the pinhole eye that essentially folded like a house of cards. I guess once it gets to that high category state it needs perfection especially when the core is that tiny. Anything goes wrong and it collapses. I'm sure the dry air near the continent helped too. 

This one does seem to be more at risk at having that 1990s-2000s Gulf half-a-cane outcome if the departing trough throws down too much dry air. But the Gulf is untouched this year by any hurricane so who knows how long this could sustain for in the N Gulf. 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there. 

 

You live through something like that once then believe me, you never want to again. NYC area after Sandy was mostly pure hell for a month after especially where the surge hit. My town had no drinkable water for 10 days and no power for a month along with the huge surge damage. And Fiona was worse for these people.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Morning survey. Strongest winds are here now. 
 

 

Wonder how much that sting Jet remains but I’m sure that means business. Sable Island gusted to 120mph on that jet? 

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I doubt this still has an eyewall.  

Yep that's not an eyewall anymore, it's more like a frontal boundary now.