jm1220

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

how legit is this 2 liw bullshit? pretty new if you ask me

It can happen if we have convective blowups on the east side of the storm. The storm will start to compete with itself in a way between that convection and the mid level forcing and dynamics to the west. That broadens the storm more than we want. 

And needless to say hopefully this double barrel low idea is a mistake. That’s what’s helping the Euro keep ticking east. 

6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

NAM looks great at H5

Looks great but hopefully the trough is a little less broad. Does look a little more negative tilt ready. We want the early close off. 

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point?  It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches.

Plenty of people are accepting that. I definitely am. It likely ends up the 50 mile range again between a very nice easy warning event and a small nuisance. Hopefully that’s west of the city so the most can enjoy it. 

12 minutes ago, Shades said:

A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 25F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around.

Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth. 

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The low is kind of on a blob of convection. Wonder if that's real. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. If it isn't, would be a better solution I think. 

I guess we’ll see. It really can happen, happened with our last storm. Hopefully the UK/GGEM last night didn’t overcorrect. GFS still being stubborn obviously but it’s probably way too suppressed and it’s up to old tricks. 

My ‘bar’ for NYC is a 4-6” type event, be thrilled with more than that. 

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is just so bad now with east coast storms, really unusable 

It’s been on this amped trend which other models look to be picking up which is a feather in its cap here it seems. 

0z and 6z both went east though and now NYC is at the edge of a warning event on the model. Want that to reverse obviously. It has the stall/capture too far NE. 

Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what the UKMET did was quite an eye-opener. 

Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us.

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Ukie 

Wow.

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

They only dropped a few like 37 of them lol

I didn't mean that literally lol.

Great news about the GGEM and (hopefully) UKMET. If we get the GFS on its own and the other models trending to a bomb I'm pretty sure we can discount it. 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

These runs all had the dropsonde data Correct?

Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm. 

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

From a public safety perspective, it's dangerous when your country's model can't produce a reasonable forecast inside 72 hours.

It's literally an all-or-nothing game right now for NYC and friends.

Wouldn't have it any other way here with these. We've had big final 24-36 hr changes on the plus and minus side in the recent past. 1/4/18-big plus, Juno 2015 big minus. 

8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Fairly long duration as modeled. 

Doesn't really show the capture scenario so actually it could be longer if that happens. 

RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east.

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I wonder how much further west we could get this to go. Even small shifts cause huge changes in snow totals.

West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. 

And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI

We want the upper 500mb low to close off just south of us. That would really deliver it. Pay the most attention to the upper level evolution. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so this is option number 4? I thought closing off south was supposed to be a good thing lol

 

If it’s way down south like over NC and it occludes down there it would just kind of drift east and not get the best dynamics up here. But the evolution looked weird and it again blows up random convection that it seems to chase. It was a lot better than 18z that’s what I care about. The upper air evolution was a hair away from another 12z blockbuster. Now we cross fingers for other models to follow. 

NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical. 

2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon. 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but what is it that causes the energy to hang back in the SW in such a progressive pattern?  In a progressive pattern shouldn't everything be moving?

 

It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm. 

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

You can feel the whole forum holding its breath

Even if the Nam shows a bomb soon it still doesn’t mean much lol. It should be in a straitjacket. Would be nice to see that the trend toward more separation stopped and hopefully reverses. 

1 minute ago, chrisNJ said:

It’s the SREFS so typically garbage but actually compared to 18z the precip and snow means increased.  Not by a lot but an increase. TTN went up a few inches. 

SREFs should be pretty much disregarded at this point. 

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Honestly, I'm really about all in on this. The H5 is so close to something spectacular on just about every model.  

I can see how it gets there for sure but I’m hesitant due to all the disagreement. The Euro’s been nothing special this winter so far but it’s been better than the GFS. It’s still a fragile setup that can go to crap as we’re seeing on other guidance. But I really hope you’re right because the potential is through the roof (maybe up to the roof) if it does come together. 

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

What you said about the Kuchera

Yeah, I should have posted the 10:1 maps also and then said to average. A bit distracted earlier though. 

Welcome to emergency management issues (was actually trying to reply to what you said @Volcanic Winter)

I told you - it's coming 

Exactly. Someone else understands me!

Not at all. H5 is a hairs breath away from something truly spectacular. 

If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance. 

The NAM is absolutely schizophrenic as we've seen now so I'd give it little/zero weight at this point. Still waiting on the GFS/GGEM to REALLY hopefully come west to give the Euro support.