jm1220

I think it’s HRRR/RAP time at this point. And they’re both trending better gradually. 

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of posters here live in NNJ and the Hudson Valley and are at major risk of underperforming.

It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts. 

NYC 0.8” or so liquid on the last few HRRR runs. 

HRRR seems to be getting better with the storm evolution and steady with me about 1.2-1.3” liquid. Hopefully we can get 12-1 ratios which would be 14-16”. Suffolk has 1.5-1.7” which should be 20”+ in places. 

Light snow in Long Beach. Surfaces beginning to be coated. 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is unreal

way more amped when everything was east at 18z

What a hilarious shift this close in. Models really have no clue here. 

That was a nice improvement. HRRR/RAP are also holding steady or improving. Maybe we’ve got a shot after all here. 

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it? 

Partly yes. It’s warm advection ahead of the main low (whatever that is given the model trends) developing off the Carolinas. 

33 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic.

Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch.

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm.  

This is… pretty crazy. I thought warm Atlantic waters are supposed to help storms, not make them sheared out garbage? 

I’m still reasonably optimistic I get 12” in Long Beach where I’ll be. But normally with a look like that aloft I’d be thinking 18”. Maybe we should get in a boat and head 500 miles east to go storm chasing later with the amount of energy this convection is supposed to steal.  

Im hoping it’s overdone but I’m not the one with the Ph.D to be able to tell one way or the other. 

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Rgem looks worse

A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east.

I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is. 

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

Your fingers to God’s keyboard! 

I have no freaking clue what’s going to happen with this. You would think with the upper air lows where they are it would be a great outcome for the vast majority of us. 

Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall. 

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule

i still do not believe the multi center idea

i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye

and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers 

I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us. 

I'll be headed to Long Beach for the storm. I think I'm still good to see about a foot. 

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Was a significant cutback out east.   I dont think I've ever said this but hopefully it was chasing convection.

Yeah Riverhead went from about 2.1" at 0z to 1.5" now. Not sure what to think about it. Hopefully it's convective feedback of some kind. Who knows. 

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. 

Still has 1” liquid for my backyard and .75 in NYC which could be 9-12” with ratios, which could be a little over the 10-1. It’s disappointing but not a disaster. Hopefully it comes back west at 18 or 0z. At that point it’ll be nowcasting. I have no clue if this’ll be real or not but since models are keying on it it may be to some extent. Usually by now they’d be losing it. 

This double barrel/dumbbell low is broadening and somewhat shearing everything out and causing it not to close off/consolidate. The convection from the eastern dumbbell low is robbing our low of moisture as well/ruining the inflow. We obviously don’t want this sheared out whatsoever. It would be loltastic if this caused a problem for the second coastal system in a row here when I remember it being overplayed almost always before this year. 

Hopefully the RAP has a clue here. But it's obviously an outlier.

UKMET definitely did come west again so that's good. GFS made some decent improvements aloft so I'd say we're hedging about even for 12z so far.

15z RAP which just came out. I have no idea how useful it is at this range-it's usually a short range model like the HRRR. 

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

NJ central / southern coast has been in and out of a secondary bullseye as well. 

The Fujiwara thing the double barrel low does allows for heavy snow up to LI and maybe coastal NJ then it kinda dumbbells east. Hopefully we can get rid of that because the trough does look better and the close off is sooner. 

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

If I get Juno’d again I’m gonna have to think hard about whether this is a hobby I want to continue in my life lol

Well at least this time you’d be somewhat prepared. Models keyed in on eastern Suffolk and MA/RI for quite a while. 

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree.

FWIW, below are Suffolk County's amounts from that storm:

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ORIENT                30.0   807 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SOUTHAMPTON           29.0   615 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MATTITUCK             26.9   404 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MEDFORD               25.6   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ISLIP AIRPORT         24.9   100 PM  1/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER   
   NORTH PATCHOGUE       24.1  1235 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   WEST BABYLON          24.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   OAKDALE               23.5   120 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MILLER PLACE          22.0   130 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   FLANDERS              22.0   204 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PORT JEFFERSON STATI  22.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LINDENHURST           21.6   530 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FARMINGVILLE          21.5   330 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HOLBROOK              21.5   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   EAST NORTHPORT        21.0   715 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SHOREHAM              21.0   413 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   COMMACK               20.0  1030 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   DEER PARK             20.0  1230 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SMITHTOWN             20.0  1240 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   UPTON                 17.1   100 PM  1/27  NWS OFFICE              
   BAY SHORE             16.5  1110 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   TERRYVILLE            16.5  1202 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ST. JAMES             16.0  1100 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   YAPHANK               15.7   220 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LAKE RONKONKOMA       14.0  1120 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OLD FIELD              9.2   212 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER        

Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time.