jm1220

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way out of its range but entertaining at least.

Just now, Blizzardo said:

There will be a death band.. now from my experience in these theres only 2 spots they set up... over NE jersey or over LI somewhere... but where that happens... oh boy! 

Or over Sayreville, NJ like for Boxing Day 2010 lol. I'd still say the best chance for it is central/eastern Suffolk County but there'll be plenty of heavy snow west of it. 

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

Cant read it.. my close up vision is gone...lol

Looks good, similar to what it seemed to have at 18z. 1" liquid starting around NYC maybe, no huge death band shown though unlike the NAM/Euro it seems. Similar to RGEM which shows a larger 12" or so area rather than the death band 30" stuff.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah Boxing Day was a great storm but we honestly expected it to be more here.  Monmouth County got the best snows in that one.

South shore of Nassau county seems to be a common spot for subsidence zones unfortunately.  For whatever reason it seems to jackpot in high end el ninos but otherwise we usually max out under or right around 20 inches.

I'm looking through the list of all 20 inch storms at JFK and most are in el ninos outside of the Feb 1961 storm and of course Jan 1996.

 

 

Wasn't the Lindsey Storm 1969 a big Nassau County Miller B storm? 2/8/13 would have been substantially better had 1/3 or more of the storm not been wasted with rain/sleet in Long Beach.

I can't get on board with crazy 20+ amounts yet for us but I'm becoming more confident we'll get past 12". GFS should have been better with that upper air chart. There's really only upside when you see two closed 500mb contours just SE of you.  

Rolling the dice here but I may be coming to Long Beach for this one. For all out blizzard conditions it would be a great place to hang out even if snow totals are a little less. 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Sharpness of the Ridge out West and consequently, orientation of the trough. 

This won't go hugely further west, we're probably near the limit or within 30-40 miles but to me it's just the maps catching up to the potential that's been here all along finally.

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

I’m awaiting the mix, dry slot(she said) next

There won't be any problems with the dry slot or mix for us. MAYBE for out by Montauk if the west trend really does continue. Our issue would be subsidence zones between bands which can't be forecast now. I can definitely understand Forky beginning to get excited. Boxing Day 2010 was supposed to be a LI focused storm too and it buried E NJ. I don't see how this has to stop going west here.

1 minute ago, keno19 said:

closed upper low  bingo

Yeah if that happens we won't have to worry at all from the city on east about picking up totals over and possibly well over a foot. That's a thing of beauty.

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Really makes me more confident in my theory that the last month was just a weather pattern which played to the GFS biases rather than the GFS being a better model. 

Metsfan's right. Miller A's (which this storm is more of than miller B ) aren't the GFS strong suit. It seems to do better with storms dominated by the northern stream which the Euro can struggle with. And GFS was very close to being considerably better. It had the stupid double low which stole a little and dragged the storm east. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs folded big time here

Jeez is anyone shocked?

What a shame that after this big upgrade it still sucks royally on pinning down these coastal storms more than 48hrs out. 

Just now, Jt17 said:

I just mean the GFS - it's very east still of the other guidance.

That's fine, I'm not concerned about it. When has it not caught up at the very end with these? As long as it's moving in the right direction it's fine by me. 

5 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Yea just looking for another tick west at this point, let it cave when the snow is already falling like it often does!

Lots of us were saying what could happen with a slightly earlier closing off of the low. This could and probably will make shifts but there's nothing to really stop it from coming west at least another 30-40 miles. And it's not a given that it'll trend back east at the last minute. 1/4/18 came west until the very end, I think 12/19/09 trended NW until the end, so did Boxing Day 2010. Sure some do tick back east but it's not a rule. 

1 minute ago, JBG said:

I "third" you. I lost my real Dad at 15, he was 47, in 1973. Fortunately it was from great to greater, but I lost my next Dad after almost 41 years knowing him and being his stepson my of the time in 2013.

I lost my dad just over 2 years ago when I was 33 and I still think about him every day and probably will for the rest of my life. He wasn't too much into my weather hobby; my mom was always a little annoyed at it-"why do you care so much about snow?". But he would at least have conversations with me about things like this. 

2 minutes ago, larrye said:

Respect your opinion, you probably know more than I do about this stuff. But 39" in western suffolk? Knowing that the NAM usually overstates QPF? It would have to get under some pretty good banding for several hours and I don't know if the intense banding will get far enough west for that. I guess we'll see. But I would prefer to use the 10-1 ratio maps and add a bit to increase the ratios if appropriate for temps ... then stating that higher amounts can be expected underneath areas where banding sets up.

With this storm and the dynamics/moisture at play, QPF probably isn't overdone. But again the Kuchera maps especially in the worst of it with blizzard conditions aren't happening. I could see maybe 12-1 ratios there. Winds will break the flakes apart and hurt ratios. The best ratios will be inland where winds will be reduced and there can be more piling up (but there will be less QPF). 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I still like 15" for us, i dont think 2 feet is happening

I’ll believe something like that when I see it but that Nam run would be how it happens. 

17 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

My father passed away this morning, and he was the inspiration that got me into weather. We used to sit and chat about every storm for hours. This storm is him saying goodbye. 

I’m so sorry for your loss. Hopefully this upcoming storm can be something of a consolation for you. Here’s to your dad!! 

O Lord above, only one thing I pray unto you this night. THAT THE NAM FINALLY GOT A CLUE!!! 

Wow. Essentially draw a line south from Nantucket. Each of the solutions west of there when nearest us would probably be big for the city on east. Huge chunk of members there. 

That was a very encouraging run even back into NYC. I wouldn't go crazy over the precip output although it still shows a borderline MECS in the city verbatim. And yes it can still keep ticking west if the upper low closes off a few hours sooner as others pointed out. Trend is undeniable for the Euro since 6z to bring the heavy snow west. Interested to see the EPS and how many monsters it has that can bring crippling amounts into the city. Those are a possibility. Not high possibility but can't be ignored. 

But wow, central and eastern Suffolk are quite possibly in for an all out blizzard on Saturday. 2 foot amounts will be common there if the banding sets up like the Euro showed here. Could be 2/8/13-like where that happens, Euro showed roughly along Rt 112 over to the William Floyd for the death band. Latest NAM was a little east of there. 

And NW of NYC should be encouraged too at the heavier amounts inching west. Could probably be a warning event on this run out to western NJ, and there ratios will help. 

Again I wouldn't go higher than 12 or 13:1 ratios near the coast because of the strong winds. But the 1.2" liquid it shows on the Nassau/Suffolk border would still be 14-15".

Can't really talk all out blizzard for near NYC yet but trust me it isn't too far away from that with some minor added improvement. 

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

News12 going 6-9" for nassau, 9-12" western suffolk, 12-18" Central suffolk and east, up to 2 feet. 

Probably a good call at this point. 

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

How about this trend from the GEFS. 

That would be awesome if we get the closed low just a little NW of there. I couldn't care less what crappy GFS surface reflection would be.

RGEM looks very similar to the last 3 runs. 

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This is Juno but 40 miles further east. 

Maybe. Hopefully we can get this tucked a little further. Lots of possibilities still. A GFS dud can’t be written off either given the number of EPS members fairly similar. 

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show.

NW areas need to keep an eye too. 

 

Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end.

BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much.  

Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out. 

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

From NE forum

The death 3-5"/hr band on that would likely be around the William Floyd Parkway. It's usually a little west of where that crazy frontogenesis line is. For the city I'd want that about 50 mi west of there. Also that'd be a tremendous moist feed. 90+kt S and E winds coming in from off the ocean at this level. That would certainly be a burial where that band sets up.

Looks like a nice improvement from 12z. If we can just keep that low west of the B/M a bit as it bombs out.