jm1220

Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall. 

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule

i still do not believe the multi center idea

i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye

and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers 

I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us. 

I'll be headed to Long Beach for the storm. I think I'm still good to see about a foot. 

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Was a significant cutback out east.   I dont think I've ever said this but hopefully it was chasing convection.

Yeah Riverhead went from about 2.1" at 0z to 1.5" now. Not sure what to think about it. Hopefully it's convective feedback of some kind. Who knows. 

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. 

Still has 1” liquid for my backyard and .75 in NYC which could be 9-12” with ratios, which could be a little over the 10-1. It’s disappointing but not a disaster. Hopefully it comes back west at 18 or 0z. At that point it’ll be nowcasting. I have no clue if this’ll be real or not but since models are keying on it it may be to some extent. Usually by now they’d be losing it. 

This double barrel/dumbbell low is broadening and somewhat shearing everything out and causing it not to close off/consolidate. The convection from the eastern dumbbell low is robbing our low of moisture as well/ruining the inflow. We obviously don’t want this sheared out whatsoever. It would be loltastic if this caused a problem for the second coastal system in a row here when I remember it being overplayed almost always before this year. 

Hopefully the RAP has a clue here. But it's obviously an outlier.

UKMET definitely did come west again so that's good. GFS made some decent improvements aloft so I'd say we're hedging about even for 12z so far.

15z RAP which just came out. I have no idea how useful it is at this range-it's usually a short range model like the HRRR. 

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

NJ central / southern coast has been in and out of a secondary bullseye as well. 

The Fujiwara thing the double barrel low does allows for heavy snow up to LI and maybe coastal NJ then it kinda dumbbells east. Hopefully we can get rid of that because the trough does look better and the close off is sooner. 

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

If I get Juno’d again I’m gonna have to think hard about whether this is a hobby I want to continue in my life lol

Well at least this time you’d be somewhat prepared. Models keyed in on eastern Suffolk and MA/RI for quite a while. 

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree.

FWIW, below are Suffolk County's amounts from that storm:

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ORIENT                30.0   807 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SOUTHAMPTON           29.0   615 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MATTITUCK             26.9   404 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MEDFORD               25.6   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ISLIP AIRPORT         24.9   100 PM  1/27  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER   
   NORTH PATCHOGUE       24.1  1235 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   WEST BABYLON          24.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   OAKDALE               23.5   120 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   MILLER PLACE          22.0   130 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   FLANDERS              22.0   204 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   PORT JEFFERSON STATI  22.0   600 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LINDENHURST           21.6   530 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   FARMINGVILLE          21.5   330 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HOLBROOK              21.5   100 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   EAST NORTHPORT        21.0   715 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SHOREHAM              21.0   413 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   COMMACK               20.0  1030 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   DEER PARK             20.0  1230 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   SMITHTOWN             20.0  1240 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   UPTON                 17.1   100 PM  1/27  NWS OFFICE              
   BAY SHORE             16.5  1110 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   TERRYVILLE            16.5  1202 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   ST. JAMES             16.0  1100 AM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   YAPHANK               15.7   220 PM  1/27  PUBLIC                  
   LAKE RONKONKOMA       14.0  1120 AM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   OLD FIELD              9.2   212 PM  1/27  TRAINED SPOTTER        

Nassau/Suffolk line in that one was about 18”. My home town of Long Beach had about 15”. I had zero because I was living in Austin TX at the time.  

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While waiting for additional model runs, some info. regarding snowstorms with an AO+/PNA+ pattern. The 500 mb pattern over the U.S. is similar to that of January 26, 2015 leading up to a storm that brought 24.6" snow to Boston, 10.7” to JFK, 11.0”, to LGA and 9.8" to NYC.  There were widespread 12”-20” amounts in Suffolk County. The synoptic evolution and details will drive the outcomes for the upcoming storm.

Thanks as always Don. I think 1/27/15 has been the top analog to this storm for a while now. Very similar evolution by the looks of it. Maybe we can luck out and nudge the action a little west of where that ended up. 

RGEM looks about the exact same to me from 6z. Any changes over the last 4 runs have been noise. So no further east shift there.

My call:

Eastern 2/3 of Suffolk (roughly Rt 112 on east): 16-24". If there's an area that can get over 24" it would be around the William Floyd Parkway I think. This also includes CT east of New Haven (east of I-91). There too a lucky band can get someone over 24".

West of Rt 112 to around the Van Wyck Expressway in Queens, SW CT, Jersey Shore: 10-16"

NYC west of the Van Wyck, along to 20mi west of I-95 in E NJ, Rockland/Westchester: 6-10"

West of there to the DE River in NJ, up to I-84 in NY: 3-6"

NW of there: Under 3"

I may be underestimating the cutoff to the west in which case the amounts in W NJ and upstate NY would be high but it looks like initial WAA snow should help and ratios should be good. 

Euro would have me go a little higher in the 10-16" area, maybe 14-18" but will wait on that and iffy especially if this double barreled low crap does happen. Overall a significant event near the city to major over LI and E CT.

I would relax over the NAM. Just like you can't dive in when it shows 20" west of NYC, you can't dive into it now. Let's see what other models show.

8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup...

It went from a foot of snow for most of the area to complete out to sea in 1 run two days ago.

It's a very delicate setup as others noted. If this double barrel low idea is overplayed or not real, it'll be better and more consolidated west. There's plenty of dynamics coming in to try to make that happen. 

The 6z was eye candy. I guess it's still possible but it was definitely an outlier. I'm much more encouraged by the Euro ticking west at 6z. 1" liquid to NYC and 1.5" almost to JFK.

The double barrel may or may not be accurate here. It may be a nowcast situation with that. But of course we’d want as little of that as possible so the low can consolidate west. 

Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing. 

First pixie dust flakes here in Huntington Station. Fun times ahead!! 

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I highly doubt that happens in this situation. This isn't a normal noreaster setup. It's being ingested into the northern stream. So it's maxing out on closest approach. When that happens, the rain snow line is pinned next to the low. But it also helps energize the system. Hence the high potential. We would just get smoked out here by a coastal front while further west got mid level dynamics. 

Yep. The one concern may be the dry slot getting close to eastern areas/the forks of the west trend continues. But mostly it’ll be about subsidence and heavy snow with the bands. There’ll be lucky and unlucky people as always.

1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said:

Im up in albany rn for school, would it be worth it to buy a train ticket this afternoon to go back home for this storm?

If home for you is Long Island I’d say yes. 

Just now, lee59 said:

I think the thing that will set this storm apart will be the temperatures. It will be in the teens and low 20s which will make that snow blow all over. If ever we needed a blizzard warning, I think this is the one.

I think for at least Nassau and Suffolk they’ll be up soon or at least Upton’s next update. And amounts probably going up!  

Wow at the Euro. Continues to tick slightly better evolution aloft. Looks very close to the Nam last night (not the probably overdone 6z). That would suggest 18” amounts are possible even in Nassau County and 12” to Manhattan. 

RAP 9z. No I'm not posting the inflated Kuchera map. You can find that yourselves.  

RAP at 9z which goes out to 51 hours was nuts as well, similar to the NAM but 30 miles east with the heavy snow. For what that's worth-probably not much since it's a short range model. Hi-res RGEM got a little weaker/further east from last run. Models may still be having issues with the possible double barreled low and working with convection (doesn't mean it isn't real or hallucination).