jm1220

Some graupel and flurries here. 

Looks like a burst enough to maybe cover the ground coming for areas Rt 112 and east. Hamptons/Montauk might walk away with 1-3” after all. 

Finally a couple of flakes here. Looks like some decent snow may make it to Captree/Fire Island. 

Looks like a band might be forming over the south fork. Other than that, yet to see one flake where I am like most everyone else. 

18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

So far this winter is reminding me of 2018-19, where one big storm slid just south of us due to bad luck early on and we came up with snake eyes the rest of the season. I think the highlight of the year was getting 2 inches of slush in late February.

The March 2019 storm was a disappointment. I think at the end it trended north and many of us were supposed to get 6-12”, ended up with a few inches or slush while Boston got crushed. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's still printing out a quarter inch of liquid that it thinks is falling right now

The GFS is bonkers, and it’s had this issue in the past where it prints out snow where the air is too dry. 

I’d say it’s now or never for us getting snow for NYC/LI. Snow is shifting east in the DC area. 

Unfortunately the issue isn’t only surface dry air, there’s also dry air aloft that’s hurting our chances. 

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react.  The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm.  ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol 

Wouldn’t surprise me if they end up with 12” down there. Very nice event down in S NJ. 

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What hurts is that there isn't alot of blocking.

The upper air flow is too zonal. Despite that given the zonal pattern the storm is being forced out. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models.

I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed).

For all the snow we had last year, I think just one was all snow at the coast. The rest all had mixing in some part of it. If we have cold air going into the storm and the snow shield is heavy and not shredded we can pile it up fast before any changeover. The Dec storm last winter was something of a disappointment here since the snow shield went shredded and allowed the warm air to take over sooner. 

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ouch

 

I suspected yesterday that the models may have over corrected north and we might see the shift back SE that often happens with these. In any case I’m starting to doubt many of us near NYC see anything at all. Dry air is holding up. Really a shame that this is a suppressed to crap system being pushed out to sea. Would’ve been a very nice event here-frustrating especially since this looks like a winter where our snow chances will be quite limited. 

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a miss for NYC metro…

Yep. Unless it makes a pretty good north jump in the next few hours I’m just not seeing it. Dewpoints in the low teens aren’t helping. It’s hitting the wall of dry air up here and you can tell there’s virga from the Mt Holly radar. 

33 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My final post on this thread and for this evening.  The amounts you see where 4+...its going to be 2-3"/hour.  May have some TS+ 1/8 Mi. 

This is the one in 10 chance from Mt Holly, the overall Winter Storm Severity Index - both collaborated at 3P this afternoon, the 00z/3 3K NAM snowfall as a start, and the 00z/3 HRRRX.  You want big snow, you go south and get there by 5AM.  Should be a 6 hour window of some embedded white out down in s NJ somewhere. I checked 18z/3 NAM soundings. It all looks quite good for all snow after 8AM. 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions here, Walt. Hopefully this can pull a rabbit out of the hat and bump north 50 more miles. 

6 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit.  I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.  

At least for NJ, no. Northerly flow is coming into the storm. There’s practically zero chance it tracks far enough NW to mix the coast over. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird.

There is some confluence off to the north of the area-not too strong but enough to keep the flow west to east and shunting the storm east. Unfortunate. 

38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agree. Not having the NAM in a setup like this gives me pause. The mesos are all south...which is why im not expecting much

Yep. Up where we are this likely won’t be a big deal if anything at all. Sometimes models over correct NW as well at this stage so it wouldn’t surprise me if it edged back SE a little to something like the Nam. 

34 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

And it'll take a bit for the ground to catch up. Not saying all is lost but its going to have to thump in the beginning.  

If it comes down heavy from the start it won’t have any issue accumulating at all. 

Good for DC to Atlantic City but suppression sucks. And this definitely will be one where it goes from all out heavy snow to flurries in 50 miles or less. Models are showing the brutal cutoff and I believe it. Dry air is pushing down as well. 

Interesting. If this S/W can really amp and trend north it would be against the sheared/progressive trend this season but something has to break it I guess. I’m still definitely not on the get hopes up train but if 6z/12z continue the trend, might really happen. For SE NJ I’d definitely be paying attention.

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too.

The Nino only works if the W PAC cools down. That seems like the issue with the 18-19 winter that could never act like a Nino because it kept the huge warm anomaly near Australia. This Nina is really acting up because of that warm pool. We might really need a mod to strong Nino to get it to couple if this warm Australia water is a semi permanent feature. 

As others have said the southern S/W has to slow down and amp so the snow can reach far enough north. I wouldn't buy anything outside of 72hrs this winter so I guess that's a plus that it won't just snow in Richmond and the Delmarva, but the trend this "winter" so far has been very progressive, so that's a reason to think it won't happen. I guess keep an eye out but odds are against it. 

Latest NAM shows the problem-stays too positively tilted/progressive so whatever does form is shunted straight out to sea. That would be congrats Norfolk even. Would be fitting for this season. 

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The scary thing is how mundane this feels. Everyone is just accustomed to the new normal which I guess is good if we're able to adapt so quickly. 

However these new normals will also be responsible for devastating weather & ecological events in the future. 

Also if we ever had another top 5-10 cold December or January people would go nuts. 

Meanwhile Seattle had another decent snow event today. Record snow in the Sierras. Hopefully somehow this Nina can dissipate and we can get a strong Nino next winter to knock the Pacific into a new pattern without the insane PAC jet and -PNA. Totally sick of it. 

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, step back on the EPS last night in regards to hope for any improvement in this area IMO. Not sure it's going to change much at this point. It's the warmest water on the planet, which matters. It's also playing right into the la Niña base state. It's been a concern all along like we've been discussing. I'm not going to sugar coat it. Toss whatever the RMM plots are showing. This is running the show, attempts at altering that have been futile. We'll keep monitoring but that's the way it looks honestly. 

Can we take about 1000 B-52 bombers and dump blocks of ice on it?  Only somewhat kidding. 

Crazy how this anomaly is ruining our winter up here. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And I don't see that stopping anytime soon which means winters from now on should mostly be a lot milder with less snows. 

Occasionally there could still be patterns that deliver a significant snowstorms but they'll be a lot rarer. 

Our golden era is sadly over. Meanwhile the west coast and Pacific NW will have their golden era at least until the warming becomes too much. 

Many of us had above to well above average snow last winter. I agree that this Nina background state we have is lousy in general here but eventually it will change again and there will be more chances. We have boom or bust cycles in the winter and have had those as long as we have historic records. Much of the 70s-90s were horrible for snow here. We’ve been incredibly spoiled and wouldn’t surprise me at all if we enter soon a long stretch where we get smacked by the reality of where we live. It’s inevitable anyway. If you want constant stretches with heavy snow you have to live in the snow belts or favored places like the Adirondacks or northern ME. 

Coating in Long Beach when I woke up. Might have been more, was melting pretty fast. Gone now. 

Had a coating here in Long Beach which is gone now. Anything's good today anyway. Merry Christmas Eve!