jm1220

12/26/10 was an amazing event in Long Beach. All out blizzard conditions most of that night. We probably ended with around 18”. We were in heavy snow for most of it but the best banding was to the west. 

The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen. 

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5. 

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

 

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+). 

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band off Ontario is beautiful. 3 lake connection. Most likely 3-5” rates in that thing. 

It can’t not be Oswego’s turn eventually. 

But my hometown Long Beach NY can be awesome too in the rare times when it comes together like Boxing Day 12/26/10. That was ferocious. But it's way rarer than further east on LI or in MA. Any big snow Nor'easter is on a knife's edge for NYC area.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I follow all your guys nor'easters like a hawk. Always wanted to chase one right on the water to get the maximum winds.

Scituate, MA 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wish I could storm chase full time. A lifelong dream of mine. Maybe one day.

The place to chase for anything incredible Nor'easter for snow is Worcester. It somehow works out for them every time. Boston a close second. Boston is never in the "death band" but ends up with 2' plus anyway. Third after Boston is Islip Airport here on LI. Somehow that area gets in on any good one that hits LI. Plenty of hotels! 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nemo right? I watched that thing all day. Absolute unreal band across Connecticut.

Yes, there really were 6"/hr amounts from CT to central LI. 30-40" amounts in that swath where the band sat for a few hours, and pretty sure CT's all time highest storm total. Where I was closer to NYC (by 30 miles west), initial heavy precip was sleet/rain and that death band came together too late. There was 12-13" by the end for me when the snow finally took over and there was a good amount of mod/heavy snow west of that band from the upper low combining into that monster, 30"+ about 30 miles east of me. 

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Some studies pegged the 50-60 dBz death band of Feb 2013 as high as 8-9 in/hr. While this has not been conclusively proven, I can tell you that responding in that was... Nuts. 

Don't get me started about that storm and dragging the thread off topic. Rain/sleet on the south shore wasted 10" at least from that storm and... 

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Actually, I think that record goes to Copenhagen, NY; 2 Dec 1966: 12 inches in one hour. 

Three times I've maybe seen 4"/hr in person are 12/30/00 (the one real thundersnow event I've been in) and 1/26/11 in Long Beach, and I think 4/2/07 in State College PA in the very tail end of a lake effect band. And those were insane. I can't imagine higher than that. The Sierra Nevadas I'm sure see some ridiculous snow rates and obviously in this event for Buffalo (and Watertown off Ontario). Was amazing to follow through on all the videos. 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Was a ton of work, My roof is very tall and steep, not much I can do unless I get a roof rake.

Enjoy the deep snow cover until April and get some sleep haha. 

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That burst didn't last long at all. Picked up 3.6". Should be about it for this storm.

Awesome finale. Thanks for all the videos/photos etc for us to follow along with. Insanely impressive that you got your driveway shoveled/snowblown out lol. I'm gassed after one of our relatively lame 12 to 18"-ers down here. Do you have to clear your roof next?

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

23. Jesus. Hello winter 

One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour).  

Down to 26. 

Gonna be another cold night. Already down to 29 here. Maybe my first low 20s tonight. 

The band is expected to drift south again later today so their snow isn’t done. It isn’t staying long since it will eventually die off as the wind becomes WNW but there could definitely be another 6” or so in the city. That would bring Buffalo up to 36-40” it looks like. So if that’s what a ‘miss’ counts for I’ll sign up in a second. The highest totals will probably be around 90” in the south suburbs. Unthinkable since NYC’s all time snowiest winter in 95-96 was 75”. 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a snow dinosaur is about to devour the car lol. Unbelievable. 

That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too. 

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow. 

59 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I have driven thru lake effect snow before maybe 7-8 years ago and what an experience.  We went from clear skies to a full on blizzard in the matter of less than a few miles. I was driving an Acura Tsx at the time and that thing handled like a snowmobile.  Everyone and there mother and fathers where stuck on the side of the roads and I even saw a construction van sitting in a pond off the side of the highway. I took I-90 all the way to I-81 and went up past watertown on my way to Massena.  at one point there had to be a few feet on the ground and atleast a few inches on the highway.  Needless to say when i arrived at my destination i had a foot+ of ice buildup under my car.

When I was at Penn State there were brief lake effect bands that made it there a few times and they were quite an experience. Once right before Easter there was 5” of snow in 90 minutes. Very fluffy and was gone the next day. Much more often there are blinding snow squalls that last 5 minutes and coat the ground, but cause spin outs/accidents everywhere. 

41, nasty cold rain. 

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave,  If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago 

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t go full Nina roaring flat Pacific jet and MJO lock in Phase 6 like we saw as this Nina got underway 3 seasons ago. I’m not thrilled about the marine heatwave popping up again north of Australia and cool western Indian Ocean. That’s helped wreck our Pacific pattern in the past. As long as the Aleutian ridge can spike to near the Arctic Circle we’ll at least have cold air nearby. 

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Agree!  I'd not set my hopes to high for a cold December.  Lots of uncertainty in my opinion.

If we want a snowy winter here we have to hope for at least one decent Dec event. Dec with below normal snow almost always portends a lousy winter overall in a Nina.