jm1220
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Posts posted by jm1220
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On the satellite you can see the beginning of the tug back to the left in the direction of the high clouds. They seem to be backing to the left somewhat already.
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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
Still moving right of the track, but starting to turn more North. May be a case of the storm being stronger and resisting the pull of the trough?
When the interaction happens it can be yanked left pretty quick. I remember how much speculation there was that Sandy would end up over eastern LI because it kept trucking NE, but it turned left almost on a dime when the trough dove in.
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38 minutes ago, Tatamy said:
06z GFS. There have been a lot of statements made that Fiona will be post tropical when it reaches Nova Scotia. It appears that it will still have a relatively calm center at landfall. Note that these numbers are KPH.
As it's transitioning it'll still have the calm center. The worst winds will likely happen a ways east of the center. It'll look something like a regular nor'easter when it comes ashore with all the steady rain west of the center but this obviously is incredibly worse.
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42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
For all the research I did, I've yet to come across a storm surge forecast here. That's pretty crazy considering that the eastern shore of Cape Breton is going to take the brunt of the surge. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place, but the CHC site doesn't have anything and we know that the NHC is big on talking surge.
After this storm they will, trust me. At the end of the day surge will be the biggest story from this. The fetch this will create is immense due to the expanding size and pre-existing intensity. Again thankfully it isn't a 100 mile or west track or that surge would be headed into Halifax and that would.... suck.
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31 minutes ago, Hoth said:
Incredible. Lucky thing that's a fairly sparsely populated part of the world.
Hurricane Sandy, “Perfect Storm” like evolution but significantly worse. It’s a full month earlier, Fiona is a stronger storm and waters are way warmer than normal on its way up. If this can really be 930mb at landfall up there, wonder how much of Sable Island would even be left. Another question is where there may be surge gauges to catch how high it gets. In any place that can funnel in a surge it’ll be insane. I think the highest surges from Sandy were 12-13 feet in the sheltered bays like Raritan Bay and this will be worse. Miraculous is right that it’s not directly or right-siding any major population center.
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44 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Down to 63 in commack.
Fall has arrived.
First real “step down” anyway from summer. About 0.8” here, looks like that’ll do it.
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0.7” just about here.
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1 minute ago, JonClaw said:
Nasty cell heading into Brooklyn on radar. I'm underground, so no clue how bad it actually is.
Could be some hail with that cell. Looks pretty intense.
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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:
Hurricane force finds will be 100s of miles across as well as the surge so I think it's gonna affect a lot more people than you think.
It'll also be going extra tropical which will spread out the strongest winds further out from the center.
The worst impacts will be to the right and maybe significantly right of the track because it’ll expand so much. Not sure where the ‘worst’ Sandy impact would’ve been but it was well away from the center. Still sparsely populated from the looks of it but a huge area overall as you said. I remember some insane Euro/GFS runs with a 930 mb Sandy into NJ which ended up 945 at landfall, but this is a full month before Sandy and the same phase/ET process will be taking place before so I can definitely see it being stronger. Thankfully is right this is missing the huge population centers because it would be catastrophic.
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49 this morning here.
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39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track
.This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north.
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1 hour ago, Dan76 said:
Hmmm
Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up.
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45 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:
Yeah looks like no rain chances for a long time. At least our area finally cashed in the last couple weeks. As Allsnow said, about three and a half inches of rain for our area the last couple weeks. We finally had better luck and it has revived things outside.
NYC, NJ and northern half of LI-absolutely. There’s essentially no drought where I am. South shore got fringed by all this rain and is still way behind average. If we’re back into the upper 80s and 90s again soon, the ground will be bone dry again down there as soon as that starts.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
Another North Shore special with very little on the South Shore.
At this point you just have to laugh. Probably 1” here maybe a little under. Way more about 20 mins west of me.
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90-95% of it’s been sheet drizzle here. Something like a light rain shower now. We have a shot at something more significant tomorrow night but otherwise this will likely be another snoozer for coastal areas.
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As with anything this summer I'll believe it when I see it for places in the drought. Models are fairly encouraging though for once.
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12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
Rgem
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Usual correction to dry coastal areas/wet inland coming?
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:
It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.
If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred.
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:
This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore.
COCORAHS ...Nassau County... Syosset 2.20 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Levittown 1.84 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Oyster Bay 1.53 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP Hicksville 1.52 in 0827 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 1.51 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Syosset 1.38 in 0825 AM 09/06 COOP Great Neck 1.15 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 0.95 in 0839 PM 09/06 AWS East Hills 0.84 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Carle Place 0.81 in 0820 PM 09/06 CWOP Searingtown 0.71 in 0543 PM 09/06 AWS Farmingdale 0.66 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP North Merrick 0.63 in 0816 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.55 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.52 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Wantagh 0.41 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Herricks 0.37 in 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Valley Stream 0.37 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP Atoc - Plainview 0.34 in 0745 PM 09/06 RAWS Wantagh 0.34 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Locust Valley 0.3 E 0.29 in 0845 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Merrick 0.28 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Bellmore 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS
Suffolk County... Northport 2.03 in 0520 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley 1.79 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Smithtown 1.63 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Dix Hills 1.61 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Greenlawn 1.59 in 0821 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley Airport 1.54 in 0814 PM 09/06 ASOS Stony Brook 1.46 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Baiting Hollow 1.24 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Northport 1.6 NNE 1.08 in 0804 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Upton 1.08 in 0944 PM 09/06 Official NWS Obs Kings Park 1.02 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP SMITHTOWN 0.98 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Miller Place 0.97 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Stony Brook 0.94 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Patchogue 0.87 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Patchogue 0.81 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Centerport 0.80 in 0700 AM 09/06 COOP Blue Point 0.80 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Ridge 0.78 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.76 in 0837 PM 09/06 CWOP 3.6 NE Calverton 0.75 in 0500 PM 09/06 COOP Sayville 0.71 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.69 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Montauk Airport 0.67 in 0754 PM 09/06 ASOS Islip Airport 0.65 in 0756 PM 09/06 ASOS Fishers Island 0.62 in 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Nys Portable No. 1 0.57 in 0754 PM 09/06 RAWS West Islip 0.57 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Remsenburg 0.57 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Orient 0.57 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Sagtikos Parkway 0.55 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Westhampton Airport 0.55 in 0753 PM 09/06 ASOS Mount Sinai 0.53 in 0400 PM 09/06 COOP West Babylon 0.53 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP N. Babylon 0.52 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 WNW Wading River 0.51 in 0835 PM 09/06 AWS Brookhaven 0.50 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 0.42 in 0800 PM 09/06 ASOS East Hampton 0.42 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Eastport 0.41 in 0445 PM 09/06 RAWS Southold 0.41 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM North Babylon 0.37 in 0822 PM 09/06 CWOP East Setauket 0.37 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Southold 0.34 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP St James 1.7 W 0.33 in 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Northport 0.27 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 0.25 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 NNE Watermill 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS
And the highest totals weren’t even captured in N Suffolk. Greenlawn had up to 4” with the stationary shower band. It was a mild drought up here that’s likely over now. Totally different than just 20 min drive south of me.
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About 2” here total. Down to sheet drizzle so barring anything crazy we all have what we’re getting from this one. Not sure what 0.5” or so will do for vegetation but hopefully it helps a little in the shaft zone.
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Heavy rain here again with the edge of this band.
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Radar estimating 3-4" in Greenlawn/Elwood again.
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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Heaviest rain of the day with this stationary band. Radar doesnt do it justice. Dumping now, closing in on 1"
That band's parked just NE of me, like walking distance far away. Exact same area getting nailed as 2 weeks ago.
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6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:
If my Tempest is accurate, we’re clocking in at .48 down here in Toms River with rain that’s definitely tapering off. Good bit less than I was hoping for if there’s to be no or little further development.
Was still raining hard when I left work a little while ago just outside EWR.
If any place ‘busted’ I would say coastal NJ did. Models had the low throwing back more rain there. Looks like a relatively small area in S NJ did well. The screw zone for LI was becoming apparent for the last 24 hrs.
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Major Hurricane Fiona
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Yep, once it happens it’ll be quick.