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jm1220

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Posts posted by jm1220

    March 2022

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, Cfa said:

    Thankfully I sit on LI’s equator. Temp up to 60 here now. I hope that mess stays relegated to the immediate south shore.

    Gorgeous up here today, temp 64. Yep, glad I’m not on the south shore. Many more days like that to come unfortunately as the water temps creep back up. 

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

    I think our accumulations come later on..setting sun,dropping temps,snow squalls. Also the backend is still in pa..all that will swing thru,maybe with some enhancement as the upper level low comes by.

    All that in central PA will dry up as it comes over the mountains and downslopes. Maybe there can be a coating with some snow squalls later under the trough. But overall a lame event. Finally seeing some snow flurries here. 

    • Like 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

    Cannot believe the storm is over by noon. Wow. Just some sleet here in Suffolk 

    These precip vs cold air race events almost never work out for the coast. We need the upper level lows to be better defined so the precip can be thrown back into the cold air. Otherwise as Snowgoose called to a T, we just dry out on the NW wind. Rain’s about done and the sky is brightening up already. 

    • Sad 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

    The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

    I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race. 

    • Like 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    It's borderline crazy. Also we're talking about 1-3/2-4" that will be gone in a day or so.

    Anyone that crazy about snowfall or in his case hoping it flops needs to check into a psyche ward. 

    Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night. 

    • Like 2

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

    People are underestimating this even near the coast. Flash freezes will happen.

    That I do think will happen-tons of black ice on the roads Sat night. But the accumulating snow could go either way. As others mentioned an hour or two difference in the changeover time will mean a lot. NW of the city should have a decent period of snow. If it can snow hard in the city for a while it should stick since temps will be dropping below freezing. 

    • Like 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

    Any thoughts on how this compares to Christmas Day 2002?  Up until that storm I had never seen any real 'wraparound snow' follow heavy rain, but that one was pretty awesome - about 6" of absolute paste.   Haven't seen anything remotely close to that storm since then either.

    This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

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    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. 

    I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city. 

    • Like 2

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    No doubt, just watching the trends.  Yesterday PSU/State College was going to get a foot and a half on the Nam and Philly basically nothing.   Most of the places that have WSW's do not get WSW snows on the Nam...the places that do not have the Watch, get them.  

    Yep, once again the storm is generally falling apart for Central PA in terms of anything really significant. Probably a moderate event for most. For me it is definitely colder and could be a surprise couple of inches, but in general the storm seems lamer/strung out instead so it doesn’t really nail anyone. Oh well. 

    • Weenie 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

    A low bombing from 996 to 972 in 12 hours isn't really strung out a crap, I think the Euro might be underdoing the qpf a bit and also it's unfortunate this storm is moving so fast. It goes from the Carolinas to east of Maine in 12 hours but it's certainly not weak.  

    I haven’t seen the upper low maps but I’d assume those aren’t closing off until the storm is done for us. That’s what would really drive the precip west. If those stay strung out/not closed off, it may be more like a glorified frontal passage. 

    • Like 1

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

    I said yesterday for things to be interesting we'd need a way east trend to account for the typical last minute NW trend. We have now gotten the way east trend. There is now a little wiggle room for interior parts of the subforum. For NYC and southeast it's still basically going to take a miracle to see more than an inch or two.   

    I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter. 

    3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though. :lol: 

    In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat. 

    • Haha 1

    March 9 Rain/Snow Event (Possibility of a few inches of wet snow for much of the subforum, most likely north and west of NYC)

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

    And remember last night I mentioned that the RGEM came in warmer and showed a rain/snow mix for north-central NJ and NYC with little to no accumulation. It was correct about having to go northwest to see much accumulation. NAM on the other hand was way off with the idea of significant snow accumulations for this area. Yet again the RGEM outperformed the NAM. We saw that several times this winter. It is really a much better model than NAM. And the CMC was the first model to pick up on this storm hitting us several days ago. These Canadian models have been excellent this winter. I trust the CMC even more than the Euro these days for longer range threats, and then the RGEM does a good job with the details when you get close to the event.

    As soon as the models started bumping north with the snow yesterday and Mon night, it was clear the best snow would be inland and along I-84 where many in that area had 5”. It’s too bad this wasn’t a month earlier and 3-4 degrees colder. This would be a 6-8” snow area wide if that was the case. Islip I think came in with near 0.7” liquid so the higher QPF did work out. But the high sun angle and lousy ratios killed it. The Kuchera maps that took this into account were the best. 

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