jm1220

In other news, down to 23 now. Likely down into the teens soon. 

52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The dry air issue has been discussed enough, but looking at the bottom of this radar view from KENX (Albany), you'd think LI got clobbered today:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=ENX-N0Q-1-200-100-usa-rad

Fun stuff.

 

Too bad we can’t shovel what falls at the 10000 ft or whatever level that radar beam crosses our area.  

There was no crazy confluence here today but plenty of dry low and mid level air. Soundings were brutal and made it obvious those GFS snow maps were way overdone. 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Acy over 10 inches? 

Amounts near the airport seem to be around 12” so that’s likely what they have. Last measurement was at 1pm when it was still S+. 

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Think 7 pages for this may be a new record for the board. 

Essentially one page per snowflake I saw today. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

This is so  pathetic haha

Suppression sucks. 

Still some piece of the last snow band trying to work it’s way into S Nassau. 

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea. Even my call for 1/2" was too much lol. I should have stuck to my guns and called nothing. 

Dry air moving back in according to radar. At least for us I think this is done. Hamptons have a little ways to go. 

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

9.5" in ACY as of 1P...makes it top 14 snowiest January on record and I think Bluewave indicated we might get top 10 snowiest day.  Right now #16 snowiest 24 hour snowfall in a climate calendar day.  

All this means (for me): it was a big one for that area. 

Still some mod to heavy banding in that area. Wonder if they have a shot at 12”? 

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NW edge obviously dried out and SREF in particular was too far nw while the multiple model ensemble axis S+ did well (GEFS/EPS/SREF)...many reports 8-12" just south of DCA to near or just south of ACY.  

GFS obviously has a problem drying out snow, despite its decent soundings. Even the drier NAM was too robust on the NW side.  Am thinking similar drying out problem with the EC.  

Which leaves the SPC HREF best of the short range groups with its 00z/2, 12z/2 and 00z/3 cycles attached. 

It was a grazer as initially threaded by Forky.

As a planner-preparer for minimizing impacts, even though essentially nada occurred NYC, I would prepare similarly again.  The downside is far larger problem than the successful zero accumulation forecast.  

It's a matter of all of us realizing that the gradient edges of ensembled, or operational cycles can be wrong and keeping that in mind as we anticipate.

I'm sure we're in a far better place with the modeling than 10 or 20 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. 

Seems like the dry air really won out from Philly on north. It’s why it’s better to look at soundings which showed the dry layer than the overaggressive snow maps in most cases. 

Some graupel and flurries here. 

Looks like a burst enough to maybe cover the ground coming for areas Rt 112 and east. Hamptons/Montauk might walk away with 1-3” after all. 

Finally a couple of flakes here. Looks like some decent snow may make it to Captree/Fire Island. 

Looks like a band might be forming over the south fork. Other than that, yet to see one flake where I am like most everyone else. 

18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

So far this winter is reminding me of 2018-19, where one big storm slid just south of us due to bad luck early on and we came up with snake eyes the rest of the season. I think the highlight of the year was getting 2 inches of slush in late February.

The March 2019 storm was a disappointment. I think at the end it trended north and many of us were supposed to get 6-12”, ended up with a few inches or slush while Boston got crushed. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's still printing out a quarter inch of liquid that it thinks is falling right now

The GFS is bonkers, and it’s had this issue in the past where it prints out snow where the air is too dry. 

I’d say it’s now or never for us getting snow for NYC/LI. Snow is shifting east in the DC area. 

Unfortunately the issue isn’t only surface dry air, there’s also dry air aloft that’s hurting our chances. 

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react.  The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm.  ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol 

Wouldn’t surprise me if they end up with 12” down there. Very nice event down in S NJ. 

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What hurts is that there isn't alot of blocking.

The upper air flow is too zonal. Despite that given the zonal pattern the storm is being forced out. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models.

I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed).

For all the snow we had last year, I think just one was all snow at the coast. The rest all had mixing in some part of it. If we have cold air going into the storm and the snow shield is heavy and not shredded we can pile it up fast before any changeover. The Dec storm last winter was something of a disappointment here since the snow shield went shredded and allowed the warm air to take over sooner. 

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ouch

 

I suspected yesterday that the models may have over corrected north and we might see the shift back SE that often happens with these. In any case I’m starting to doubt many of us near NYC see anything at all. Dry air is holding up. Really a shame that this is a suppressed to crap system being pushed out to sea. Would’ve been a very nice event here-frustrating especially since this looks like a winter where our snow chances will be quite limited. 

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a miss for NYC metro…

Yep. Unless it makes a pretty good north jump in the next few hours I’m just not seeing it. Dewpoints in the low teens aren’t helping. It’s hitting the wall of dry air up here and you can tell there’s virga from the Mt Holly radar. 

33 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My final post on this thread and for this evening.  The amounts you see where 4+...its going to be 2-3"/hour.  May have some TS+ 1/8 Mi. 

This is the one in 10 chance from Mt Holly, the overall Winter Storm Severity Index - both collaborated at 3P this afternoon, the 00z/3 3K NAM snowfall as a start, and the 00z/3 HRRRX.  You want big snow, you go south and get there by 5AM.  Should be a 6 hour window of some embedded white out down in s NJ somewhere. I checked 18z/3 NAM soundings. It all looks quite good for all snow after 8AM. 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions here, Walt. Hopefully this can pull a rabbit out of the hat and bump north 50 more miles. 

6 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit.  I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.  

At least for NJ, no. Northerly flow is coming into the storm. There’s practically zero chance it tracks far enough NW to mix the coast over. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird.

There is some confluence off to the north of the area-not too strong but enough to keep the flow west to east and shunting the storm east. Unfortunate. 

38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agree. Not having the NAM in a setup like this gives me pause. The mesos are all south...which is why im not expecting much

Yep. Up where we are this likely won’t be a big deal if anything at all. Sometimes models over correct NW as well at this stage so it wouldn’t surprise me if it edged back SE a little to something like the Nam.