jm1220

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

 

Are the H5s just depicted poorly?  

It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates. 

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FORKY we are sooooo close!

Yes verrrrry close where you and I are. Would take tiny changes aloft and at the surface to add 10” to our totals. And yes oftentimes banding makes it west of modeled in these storms. If that low consolidated west on the Euro just a few hours sooner…. Wow. 

Still a little sloppy as it comes by our latitude and doesn’t really consolidate. But holy Toledo for eastern New England when it finally does. 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Flow into our area definitely improved, backed in from SSE. Have to think that results in an improvement here not just New England. 

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse. 

Sometimes models overadjust when they sense a change from new data. The southern stream DC to ACY snow event this winter overadjusted on models when they saw suddenly it would be much further north. We were supposed to get 3-5" on some models in NYC but it ended up tons of virga.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. 

Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. 

Sure we have. I remember expecting a minor to moderate event on 1/3/18 because the system was riding too far east. Last minute west trend for the next day got me up to 14-15". 1/272015 had the epic Euro vs world battle until the end. Even before 1/25/16 the snow was supposed to stay south of Philly mostly and then blasted north at the very end. These are much different systems but there's often tons of volatility with these to the end. 

That said, the trend toward broadening the trough and delaying the consolidation of the different lows/features isn't what we want. We still have time for it to reverse enough to make a difference at least near the city. Hopefully it hits the Atlantic rocket fuel and takes off right away.

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

is there a snow map for that..thanks, or what does it show for NJ

If you insist.  

Just now, Big Jims Videos said:

I don't know if any model can nail this down until we start to follow radar trends.  Someone can be in for a wicked heartache - both along the shore where we are expecting double digits and the northwest fringe zone where flurries or 3-4 inches could be a matter of 10 miles.  I've been on sides of that equation.  They hurt equally bad.  The ceiling is still incredibly high for a bust in our favor as well - but when you're talking literally 30-50 mile difference we've all been burned in the past - 2015. 

Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these. 

UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd. 

GGEM looks a lot like the RGEM, went east a bit. Warning level snow makes it about 30mi NW of the city. LI has 10-12" using 10-1 maps. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

A Hecs / Mecs  is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ?

MECS for NYC isn't off the table. And HECS/MECS depends on where you're talking about. For E Suffolk and up to Boston it's more likely than not. 

Take the bickering and arguing elsewhere. 

GFS will get there eventually. What it prints verbatim I wouldn't worry about.

1 minute ago, Juturna said:

So under the assumption that this does occur...is there any sort of consensus on a start time for the metro/LI area? Seems like it is coming in quicker and leaving quicker than it appeared early in the week. 

I'd say by tomorrow night 10-11pm. That's when some light snow looks to be spreading into the area. Snow is heavy late overnight into the afternoon.  

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

talking and guessing ratios are nearly impossible.  so much needs to go right.. Dynamics, Snow rate, etc

It's about being stuck in a lucky band too. If you're in an area of crappy lift, expect crappy ratios. That's before the wind gets to breaking the flakes apart. 

Not to say it won't be above 10-1 in some places near the coast but the Kuchera 15-1 ratios or whatever won't happen. Maybe well inland where winds are less, but the good banding probably won't make it there to help with lift. 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Models still showing a pretty sharp cutoff just NW of NYC but historically it's rare for a storm to drill NYC and significant snow not to make it to at least I287 as there is usually a band on the NW edge of the good stuff. 

1/4/18 might be a decent analog for this-where the cutoff sets up, not the storm evolution. The "hope" line for me is I-287/87 to I-84 on east. NW of there I think is done for more than a few inches. I definitely do buy the sharp cutoff idea and we'll be riding where the western fronto band can make it. 

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS I think has to give in a bit at 12z? Doesn't it? I'm not expecting a big storm anymore but pretty much every other model agrees now it won't be a total non event. 

It might, might not. I'm not too concerned about it. 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.

This winter not really but it’s better to have it than not at this point. It’s also hopefully a precursor to a really good GGEM run. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is still nice 

Hopefully we can get this to track inside the Benchmark then have the stall/capture just south of Cape Cod like the GGEM/UK had last night. That’s how NYC can get annihilated. And obviously the east shuffles from the Euro need to stop. 

6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still stuck right on the western edge of the gradient 

Yep exactly why we want the early phase and cutting off the upper low. This setup is great for Boston and eastern Suffolk but NYC needs a little help to be in a good spot. The help definitely still has time to happen. 

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

how legit is this 2 liw bullshit? pretty new if you ask me

It can happen if we have convective blowups on the east side of the storm. The storm will start to compete with itself in a way between that convection and the mid level forcing and dynamics to the west. That broadens the storm more than we want. 

And needless to say hopefully this double barrel low idea is a mistake. That’s what’s helping the Euro keep ticking east. 

6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

NAM looks great at H5

Looks great but hopefully the trough is a little less broad. Does look a little more negative tilt ready. We want the early close off. 

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I know we all want YUGE snows but why are we so bent on discounting what the models are saying at this point?  It seems they all point to a super tight gradient with the majority of big snows off to the east and yet we wont accept it. Believe me I want 20 + inches.

Plenty of people are accepting that. I definitely am. It likely ends up the 50 mile range again between a very nice easy warning event and a small nuisance. Hopefully that’s west of the city so the most can enjoy it. 

12 minutes ago, Shades said:

A lot of chatter about QPF and not much about ratios, considering that it will be in the teens to maybe 25F (forecasted high in NYC for Saturday), we may be looking at enhanced accumulations based on ratios. Models always struggle with this element with what accumulates on the ground, either overestimating with marginal temperatures, or underestimating. Snow total maps are almost always erroneous in that regard. We're on the favorable side this time around.

Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth.