jm1220

1 minute ago, JonClaw said:

Nasty cell heading into Brooklyn on radar. I'm underground, so no clue how bad it actually is. 

Could be some hail with that cell. Looks pretty intense. 

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Hurricane force finds will be 100s of miles across as well as the surge so I think it's gonna affect a lot more people than you think.

It'll also be going extra tropical which will spread out the strongest winds further out from the center. 

The worst impacts will be to the right and maybe significantly right of the track because it’ll expand so much. Not sure where the ‘worst’ Sandy impact would’ve been but it was well away from the center. Still sparsely populated from the looks of it but a huge area overall as you said. I remember some insane Euro/GFS runs with a 930 mb Sandy into NJ which ended up 945 at landfall, but this is a full month before Sandy and the same phase/ET process will be taking place before so I can definitely see it being stronger. Thankfully is right this is missing the huge population centers because it would be catastrophic. 

49 this morning here. 

39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, it had a fully intact eyewall at our latitude and devastated cape cod. There would have been gusts well over 100mph for much of Long Island with a Gloria track


.

This probably won’t be it but we certainly are due for what we saw from the late 1930s-early 1960s. A Great Atlantic Hurricane, Donna, 1938, Hazel etc would be 50 billion dollar disasters at the very minimum. Bob 75 miles or so further west would’ve been devastating as well. We seem to get these marine heatwaves all the time too, so any Hurricane would have less time to weaken as it comes north. 

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Hmmm     

Good thing in 256 hours/10-11 days we can lock that up. 

45 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah looks like no rain chances for a long time. At least our area finally cashed in the last couple weeks. As Allsnow said, about three and a half inches of rain for our area the last couple weeks. We finally had better luck and it has revived things outside.

NYC, NJ and northern half of LI-absolutely. There’s essentially no drought where I am. South shore got fringed by all this rain and is still way behind average. If we’re back into the upper 80s and 90s again soon, the ground will be bone dry again down there as soon as that starts. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another North Shore special with very little on the South Shore. 
 

At this point you just have to laugh. Probably 1” here maybe a little under. Way more about 20 mins west of me. 

90-95% of it’s been sheet drizzle here. Something like a light rain shower now. We have a shot at something more significant tomorrow night but otherwise this will likely be another snoozer for coastal areas. 

As with anything this summer I'll believe it when I see it for places in the drought. Models are fairly encouraging though for once.

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem

 

Usual correction to dry coastal areas/wet inland coming? 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.

 

 

If anything it should be D3 south of the Southern State and D0 if anything north of the Northern State/LIE. You look at the grass/trees here and it’s like any normal summer. But the south shore literally looks charred. 

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore.

 

COCORAHS             

...Nassau County...
Syosset                      2.20 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Levittown                    1.84 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Oyster Bay                   1.53 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Hicksville                   1.52 in   0827 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   1.51 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Syosset                      1.38 in   0825 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Great Neck                   1.15 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   0.95 in   0839 PM 09/06   AWS                  
East Hills                   0.84 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Carle Place                  0.81 in   0820 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Searingtown                  0.71 in   0543 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Farmingdale                  0.66 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Merrick                0.63 in   0816 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.55 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.52 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Wantagh                      0.41 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Herricks                     0.37 in   0830 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Valley Stream                0.37 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Atoc - Plainview             0.34 in   0745 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Wantagh                      0.34 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Locust Valley 0.3 E          0.29 in   0845 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Merrick                      0.28 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Bellmore                     0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS              

 

Suffolk County...
Northport                    2.03 in   0520 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley                      1.79 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Smithtown                    1.63 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Dix Hills                    1.61 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Greenlawn                    1.59 in   0821 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley Airport              1.54 in   0814 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Stony Brook                  1.46 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Baiting Hollow               1.24 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Northport 1.6 NNE            1.08 in   0804 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Upton                        1.08 in   0944 PM 09/06   Official NWS Obs     
Kings Park                   1.02 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
SMITHTOWN                    0.98 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Miller Place                 0.97 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  0.94 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Patchogue                    0.87 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Patchogue              0.81 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Centerport                   0.80 in   0700 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Blue Point                   0.80 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Ridge                        0.78 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.76 in   0837 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
3.6 NE Calverton             0.75 in   0500 PM 09/06   COOP                 
Sayville                     0.71 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.69 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Montauk Airport              0.67 in   0754 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Islip Airport                0.65 in   0756 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Fishers Island               0.62 in   0800 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Nys Portable No. 1           0.57 in   0754 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
West Islip                   0.57 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Remsenburg                   0.57 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Orient                       0.57 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Sagtikos Parkway             0.55 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Westhampton Airport          0.55 in   0753 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Mount Sinai                  0.53 in   0400 PM 09/06   COOP                 
West Babylon                 0.53 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
N. Babylon                   0.52 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 WNW Wading River           0.51 in   0835 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Brookhaven                   0.50 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          0.42 in   0800 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
East Hampton                 0.42 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Eastport                     0.41 in   0445 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Southold                     0.41 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
North Babylon                0.37 in   0822 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
East Setauket                0.37 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Southold                     0.34 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
St James 1.7 W               0.33 in   0700 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Northport                    0.27 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
West Gilgo Beach             0.25 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 NNE Watermill              0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS     

And the highest totals weren’t even captured in N Suffolk. Greenlawn had up to 4” with the stationary shower band. It was a mild drought up here that’s likely over now. Totally different than just 20 min drive south of me. 

About 2” here total. Down to sheet drizzle so barring anything crazy we all have what we’re getting from this one. Not sure what 0.5” or so will do for vegetation but hopefully it helps a little in the shaft zone. 

Heavy rain here again with the edge of this band. 

Radar estimating 3-4" in Greenlawn/Elwood again. 

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Heaviest rain of the day with this stationary band. Radar doesnt do it justice. Dumping now, closing in on 1" 

That band's parked just NE of me, like walking distance far away. Exact same area getting nailed as 2 weeks ago.

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

If my Tempest is accurate, we’re clocking in at .48 down here in Toms River with rain that’s definitely tapering off. Good bit less than I was hoping for if there’s to be no or little further development. 
 

Was still raining hard when I left work a little while ago just outside EWR. 

If any place ‘busted’ I would say coastal NJ did. Models had the low throwing back more rain there. Looks like a relatively small area in S NJ did well. The screw zone for LI was becoming apparent for the last 24 hrs. 

We should still have rain for a while from the moisture coming in from the ocean, but with the low sliding east I think any widespread heavy rain goes with it. We still get these small showers though which locally will bump amounts up. Locally I probably have 1.50” now or so, hopefully I can end over 2”. Unfortunately the south shore mostly looks under 0.5”. 

Getting drenched with this small cell passing over. 

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the models have different placement for it. 

You can see the low generating now around ACY if not south. The models yesterday that had more rain for LI had that low closer to Asbury Park. 

Mod to heavy showers regenerating on the north shore again. I think there is some meso low that has been sparking these. For the south shore it’s not looking good unless this regenerating precip does happen. 

Just now, Brian5671 said:

IT's the HRRR but it's wet for most here

LOL wow. Fingers crossed I guess. 

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I have 3+. 

Yes-your area into CT and maybe even my area will do fine. It’s the southern LI crew that needed this second batch of rain that probably miss out again. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Pouring now. These little cells keep developing overhead. Should see at least an inch. Green things up a bit

We’re lucking out again up here. Amazing how this little drought zone just persists. South shore summer drought is a frequent occurrence but this is insane. 

13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Radar loop just south of LI drying up. Lol

 

I’m thinking this isn’t happening north of I-195. Models have been insisting on this shaft zone since yesterday so looks like that will happen. Notice the heavy rain is consolidating over S NJ not moving north.