jm1220

I made it down to 36 last night. 

18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Might not get much rain from this after all 

The east side of these systems always underperform on rain at this latitude. Best we can hope for IMO is a line of T-storms to come through with the front, that seems to be what much of our rain is on the models. But if that doesn't materialize some of us may see only a few brief showers. Isaias/Fay/Ida etc had very little rain east of the track. As bad as Sandy was, I think LI had under an inch of rain when predictions were for 3-6". 

The east side does often overperform on the wind but it doesn't look to be at a level that would be worse than a nuisance. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

At this rate it's going to Cleveland and we might not get anything

It’s phasing into a deep trough and it’ll be a strong cold front passing through so hopefully it does get interesting beyond a windy day for a while. Could be some good T-storm activity ahead of the front, but it could just be the windy/showery day too. We’ll just have to see. 

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs continues to trend west

 

At this point I wouldn’t expect more than showery weather for most of us and gusty winds to 50 mph or so. On the east side of these storms some might just have a shower or two and that’s it. Maybe we can luck out and we get a squall line in the instability as the strong cold front passes by. 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left.

I think this ends up

being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 

How many dead trees are around from the summer drought though?

I do agree that it looks like a run of the mill windy/showery event for most of us. The heavy rain will mostly be over PA and maybe W NJ. If anything models keep going west with the low track. 

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region.

It's becoming likely there will be a PRE on Fri as well before what's left of Nicole makes it here. That looks to be well west of us. Looking like it's becoming the usual PA/NJ soaker and NYC east showery/windy with these systems. At least we have something interesting happening.

My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. 

Long Beach made it to 79. Nice beach day on 11/7 lol. 

Wow, low 80s in much of Nassau. Even Long Beach up to 78. 77 at my place. And the lower humidity makes it feel awesome. 

Last bit of heating with the downslope W flow. Much of Nassau up to near 80 now. 

75 here. Feels like mid September. 

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro brings the tropical system into Florida later in the week. We get a PRE with heavy overrunning rains along the stalled front. Best winds this run are out toward Cape Cod. But that could change in time. First interior Northeast snow of the season possible beyond day 10 with record -EPO.
 

 

That day 10 looks frigid with the ridge spiking north into the Arctic Ocean. Hopefully as we end the month we can start some blocking. 

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Loved that storm got 22” from it constant thunder snow at the height of it

16" I believe in Long Beach. Was a very heavy wet snow. Only time I ever had thunder sleet which thankfully actually turned over to snow quickly. The height of it around midnight was absolutely incredible, must have been 3-4"/hr rate. The snow cover between then and the early Feb melt down was amazing too. That period from the 12/26/10 storm to that one was just as prolific as anything I've lived through. 

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Nope

1/27/11? One of my all time fav's. 

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

2 of the greats (Forky/Euro) go down in the same storm 

I just moved to Texas before that one hit/didn’t hit so I was kinda bummed but nothing like the agony of watching 1/23/16 end up an all timer from there. Long Beach had 14-15” from Juno but probably 30” from Jonas. 

Dense pea soup this morning. Worst fog I’ve seen in quite a while. 

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

After a high of 68 degrees, already down to 52.

Down to 45. Quick drop on clear dry days like these. 

On 10/31/2022 at 4:08 PM, binbisso said:

Yup. Unless there is a blend of guidance these stats are pretty useless.

Cfs looks good for December. Eps heading in that direction. Not holding my breath but hopefully we can get a decent December this year. We are due

If we can pull off that ridge over the Bering Strait it would be great. That would be a very cold trough with that cross polar flow. How Nina winters do here is strongly correlated to how steep the Aleutian ridge is. Steeper is way better. Flat ridge means we’re flooded in Pacific air. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Return to the 70s for next weekend as we see a record 588 dm SE Ridge for early November emerge. Plenty of SSE onshore flow so coastal sections will be cooler. Newark would probably need more SW flow than the models currently show to have a shot at 80°.

 

Put the palm trees back out and shorts back on!! 

Hopefully we cool down in the second half of November and have at least one decent Dec snow event because as Don mentioned we’re likely doomed for winter if that doesn’t happen especially in a Nina which is typically front loaded. 

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

What a monster Sandy was. 10 years ago today. Probably one of the most powerful storms that most of us experienced. I wasn't in an area that flooded, that alone was crazy enough, but the winds were nothing like I've ever seen. The sustained winds of 40-60+mph were just insane. It's not like a gust of 40-60mph which is strong, it was sustained at those speeds. Seeing the trees bend like never before and lucky that some didn't snap. The gusts were insane, many gusts were 70-90mph. I remember looking at the clouds race across the sky from east to west faster than I've ever seen. I kinda wish I could go back in time just to relive the event.

The transformers blowing up all night were like the Fourth of July. Long Beach where I lived at the time was obviously devastated beyond anything anyone’s ever seen there. My parents’ home was unlivable for about 3 months after being trashed (and they were lucky compared to others on our street). Plenty of wind damage too, part of a roof on a building on National Blvd blew away. Feet of sand pushed into the city, explosions/fires etc. So yeah, that was my #1 worst storm. 

Annoying how NOAA essentially takes the standard La Niña winter anomalies and releases that as their outlook again. Anyone should see the last few winters how much more’s going on than just ENSO. 

2 hours ago, AChilders said:

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

Hopefully many of the homes that weren’t outright devastated can be salvaged. Many homes that have mold or other interior damage or shifted off the foundation will have to be leveled unfortunately. And yes, until there’s a good way to clear the debris (and there will be way more than people can imagine) from these towns and the roads/bridges are back open, there won’t be much improvement. 

We lucked out in Nassau/W Suffolk in how the second offshore batch of rain came about due north vs more east. According to radar (which might be low) I had about 0.9”. Places east of me clearly had more. 

You can see the split screw happening for NYC and most of us-E Suffolk should get it pretty good. Oh well. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

65/36 split today

And back down to 45 now. It’ll be an early fall foliage season for us that’s for sure.