jm1220

9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Anywhere to get a good graphic on rainfall over the past week or for July to date for our area?  Thanks.  iweathernet has a radar composite map for up to the past 72 hours, but not further out than that...

Might want to get it updated again tomorrow. Insane that another cluster of storms is headed toward NYC and parts of the city are getting hit again. Months like Aug 2011 are on another level altogether (so far, month is young) but this is getting crazy. 

Rt 110 in Melville on Channel 7 now for flooding. Looks like flooded businesses and stuck cars. NW Suffolk and N Nassau got nailed. 

Sun starting to come out in Long Beach. 

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wasn't disappointed yesterday. Got crushed. 

Flash Flood warning issued for NW Suffolk just now. A bit too late if you ask me...

Radar estimates 4.5" for my immediate backyard. And still raining heavily there.

The two areas socked so far look to be northern Nassau and NW Suffolk. Radar estimates around 5” between both events. My backyard will be a mud pit when I get back later. 

Getting windy in Long Beach now as this last rain band leaves.

Looks like the Nassau/Suffolk border getting crushed just like yesterday evening. Radar estimates there well over 3” to 4” between both days. 

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Stayed at my dads in south wantagh last night “just in case”, just woke up to basement flooding and a couple large branches down in the backyard. The basement flooding makes sense. What doesn’t are the branches, winds are currently light

I’m in Long Beach for the same reason. So far moderate to heavy rain here but not much wind. 

Looking like the heavy rain axis will be a bit east of predictions this morning. Sorry @psv88  

Around the city and points east look to have the best shot per radar and track. Nothing excessive but could definitely have 3-4" in some spots.

A few sprinkles here so far. 

16 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Hopefully that does not mean trees knocking down power lines.  Bad memories of 8 days no power from Isaias.

This won’t be anywhere near as bad wind wise as Isaias. Elsa is a weak tropical storm and won’t spend anymore time over water before getting here. Even though it might get an assist from an incoming trough it won’t make it that much worse in terms of wind. The story here is the rain and even that shouldn’t be extreme. Could be a swath of 3-5” probably west of us. We more likely get 1-3” in banding. 

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We don’t need the rain…

Since Jan 1 many of us still have a precip deficit that Elsa should bring enough to take out. 

5 minutes ago, jets said:

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

Odds are it somehow ends up west and jackpots NJ like always seems to happen but hopefully it can nudge east a bit and hit everyone. Wind wise I don’t expect much. 

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro really backed off on the wind potential for the coast.  

Not surprising. Elsa won’t be off the coast at all pretty much before getting here. This is much more a rain threat. 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

It's actually kind of hilarious/ridiculous 

 

 

543 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - No storm surge inundation forecast

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
      surge flooding
        - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
          Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
          currents are possible.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
          are needed.
        - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
          forecasts.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Ehh. Whatever rain we can get this time of year is a win though. 

Just about the lousiest conditions you could think of for 7/4 weekend. Thankfully tomorrow should be nicer. 

Here it’s been a rumble of thunder but otherwise nothing. Actually the sun broke out once or twice. 

The far north shore east of Glen Cove to Asharoken getting deluged too. Radar estimating 5”+ now. Would be huge impact if it was 5 miles south where it’s much more populated. 

Wow at that cell near Corona. Radar estimating 4" now.

2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I’ve posed this same question here before too.  Sometimes, the radar seems to light up once storms push far offshore.

Elevated convection and forcing from the frontal boundary. 

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

will come down to how it interacts with Haiti as well...

If it moves into Shredd-aniola it might barely come out as a tropical system. Lots of booby traps for this one to cross through.

Nice soaking moderate rain, definitely what the lawns need. 

Probably a significant straight line wind event in NJ. Some nice bow echos and good velocities. It missed out on NYC and LI where things stabilized after the rain earlier but still some heavy rain especially along the south shore. Moderate rain here now. 

Just had a heavy downpour.

Looks like the slight risk was shifted north to include NYC. Some clearing outside will allow destabilization. Tons of humidity still to be tapped.