jm1220

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I cant stand severe weather because I've lost extremely expensive equipment over it.  That needs to stay in the sparsely populated parts of the country.

 

“Severe” weather I experienced on LI is nothing like actual severe weather in Austin that’s for sure. But yes this is essentially a BECS upcoming for snow and cold in TX. 

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Northshore Ski Bowl was open for business this afternoon and evening.  Backyard skiing with a few inches of powder over a 12" base.  I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees...

The Target near the New York Ave/Jericho Tpke intersection is the go to sledding area in my immediate backyard. Significant difference in snowpack between the Smithtown and Islip ends of Rt 111 today as you would expect. 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time they dropped below 10° was 1989.

Time Series Summary for Austin-Bergstrom Airport Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1949	-5	2
2	1989	6	0
3	1951	8	1
4	2010	10	0
5	1983	11	0
-	1964	11	0

 

Thanks! The airport is in a more exurban area outside of downtown so it typically gets a couple degrees colder than the city, however the CAA might be strong enough for it not to matter. Camp Mabry is the more representative temp for downtown. 

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wow torch city in the LR....clown timeframe but 60 would feel tropical

The blocking and big time -AO saved us so far. When that relaxes we’ll torch for sure on the SE ridge. 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

nothing to plow it with there-it will be cold for several days-will cripple the area....

Nope. The light glaze I mentioned shut the city down. My office told everyone to work from home and it was a disaster. 

Low of 6 now expected in Austin on Mon night along with 2-4” snow. I’ll have to look to see when temps have been that cold there. It must be several decades at least. And that amount of snow is also incredibly  unusual. When I lived there over 2 winters 2015 and 2016 we had a light glaze one morning and that was it. A few mornings below freezing. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Ordinarily I would be scared of power outages, but we didn't get them in Jan 1994....you were around for that historic event (I think), what was the reason we didn't have them then and why would they be more likely now?

I'm much more scared of driving accidents.

 

I don’t really remember 93-94, I was 7 years old then. I remember bits and pieces. The first real memory I have was the 95-96 winter specifically Jan 96 which really got me into weather. 

The warm air aloft is caused by the strengthening SE ridge and an attempt to have a primary low feature that drives warm mid level air in. This is all cutting into a strong surface high in Canada that is keeping cold low level air in place. Hopefully the ice storm depictions don’t happen. No one wants a 0.5” or more freezing rain event that would cause tens of thousands of power outages. 

Yep, insane cold and snow upcoming for Central TX, and today even up to 1/4" ice. Austin may have a high below 20 on Monday with 2-4" also possible!! That hasn't happened there in decades. It's essentially a 93-94 level cold airmass along with 24-30" blizzard equivalent for our area if not even worse.

Icy bridges, overpasses still possible as freezing rain winds down | KXAN Austin

3 minutes ago, justinj said:

When was the last time dallas area saw single digit temps?

Austin’s low might get down to 10 on Monday night and they’re under a warning for sleet/ice. I experienced sleet and a glaze once when I lived there in 2015 but the lowest temp got down to 29-30 very briefly. That kind of cold is absurd for that area. Palm trees naturally grow there. 

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

In a way I won't mind if we get a (very) little bit of sleet. Adding ice layers to this snowpack will help it last longer. Big picture, I'd rather not because it sux to shovel and with 5' driveway banks it's even worse.

Yes sleet can definitely help. It’s annoying the day of but it adds a lot of water and freezes solid into the snowpack which saves it as the sun is getting higher in the sky now and melts some of the snow even with below freezing temps. 

Just measured about 1.5” in S Huntington. 

1 hour ago, mob1 said:

Snowing pretty good in Altoona PA now, snow doesn't need much of a northern trajectory to give most of us a light snowfall event. 

The snow will get almost to the NY border if not beyond. Question here is how much dry air will have to be overcome that will be coming in from New England. 

Whenever you see that ESE dip through PA and NJ in the precip/snow amounts you know there’s a dry airmass this will be up against. We’ll have to see what can make it through our area. Might be quite a battle getting decent snow especially in northern areas. 

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree ratios wont be great unless there are heavy bursts. I think 1-3 is a good call for the city and probably up to I287, closer to 3 more likely right along the coast of the city and the south shore of LI.  

Another 30 mile or so bump north would be best. There’ll also be a dry airmass for this to deal with. 

I’m not sure ratios would be great if there’s  still slight lift in the DGZ. Cold temps alone don’t cause high ratios. If we get light stuff that keeps getting eaten by dry air ratios might not be great. It can be cold but also have bad snow growth and needles/sand that’s 10-1 ratio. 

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The Euro is now showing 2 to 3 inches up to our area now too. Since a good 2 to 3 inches of snow looks likely now, I would think the winter weather advisories will be extended north to north-central NJ and the NYC area later this afternoon.

I think advisory is 3 inches or more within 24 hours? NYC and LI might be borderline for that. Guess we’ll see. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...

We’ll see what they have with the PM update. Not a huge shift but seems like we’re at least getting to I-80 with accumulating snow tomorrow. 

You can always bank on a north trend especially this year with the SE ridge. Hopefully it’ll be a nice event for most tomorrow. I’d probably go 2-4” as well especially I-80 and south. 

Amazing how Central Park has 32.5” this season and Syracuse only 47.6”. Also more snow on the ground down here vs there. Also around 32” now for the season in Huntington. 

Temp above freezing here now. I guess whatever does fall at this point would be rain. 

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If it did not cloud over tonight some very low temperatures would have resulted. Between the radiational cooling and the snow pack, many rural areas would get into the single digits. Already in the teens in many areas. I currently have 18 degrees.

15 here. Over a foot on the ground here in S Huntington. 

RGEM looked a little colder to me than last run. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam colder 

Slightly. Up here over to the Bronx maybe adds up to 1" and the real accum starts around the Tappan Zee and CT coast. It's in the mid teens here now, sad that we'll most likely have rain tomorrow on southerly winds. Maybe we can have it be a couple degrees colder and the 1" can at least work out. But there's plenty on the ground now-deep winter for sure and it'll be around for a while regardless. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and even when it's cold the snow seems to melt much faster- is that because of more urbanization, the salt in the air near the ocean or both?

 

Can't really say. Plenty of snow melted in Huntington this week too. The couple of degrees does make a difference.