jm1220

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a drop on the south shore. You know the deal having grown up in Long Beach. We call these secret days at Jones beach. It’s been sunny all day

Looks like more widespread convection will be coming tomorrow and Monday. We'll see what happens. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The higher dewpoints and mid 70s SSTs are doing their job. Some spots have picked up over 1.00” this morning. We’ll probably see more widespread convection in the coming days.

 

Yeah, I probably spoke too soon with the coastal drought. Very difficult if not impossible to get anything more than a short lived dry spell here these days. Florida here we come. 

Decent downpour here for 10 minutes or so. Lawns need it.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the usual warm spots around the region on the Euro make a run on 100°. Even the Long Island North Shore goes over 95°. But the highest dewpoints should be closest to the coast.

If the sea breeze holds off and isn't too strong, we'll easily make it to the high 90s up here. And it will be more brutal than anywhere-we get the heat plus the humidity. On that map at least NJ's dewpoints will stay in the 60s.

On another note, argh about the storms yet again. Huntington village/Halesite getting nailed, maybe a drop or two here. 

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
WEST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY ON THE EVENING OF THURSDAY JULY 14, 
2022. THE STORM BROUGHT LOCALIZED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT TREE 
DAMAGE FROM LAKE RONKONKOMA EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SELDEN AND
CORAM AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR, OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS, PHOTOS, AND 
VIDEOS SUPPORT THE DAMAGE BEING CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT-LINE 
WINDS FROM SEVERAL MICROBURSTS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE 
WAS IN THE AREA OF SACHEM NORTH HIGH SCHOOL AND SMITH STREET, WITH
NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND SEVERAL TREE TOPS SNAPPED OFF. 
THIS DAMAGE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE IS CONSISTENT WITH
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 80 MPH. THERE 
WAS NO EVIDENCE OF ROTATION WITH THE STORM AND NO TORNADO SURVEY 
IS PLANNED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY WOULD LIKE 
TO THANK SUFFOLK COUNTY FIRE RESCUE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES FOR 
THEIR ASSISTANCE IN EXAMINING THE DAMAGE AREAS AS WELL AS TRAINED 
SPOTTERS, LOCAL MEDIA, AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR DAMAGE REPORTS 
FROM THURSDAY EVENING. 

The area I drove through last night definitely got rocked. Reminded me of what I saw after Isaias. A mile away though, nothing. Was a very localized event. 

Drove on Portion Rd in Lake Ronkonkoma this evening, whoa is right. Had to take a detour since part of Portion Rd was closed, and saw numerous big limbs and a few trees down, along with power wires and the neighborhood entirely had power out. Part of Motor Parkway in Islandia was also closed. That area got whacked pretty good. Not that I’m any expert but it looked like a localized microburst vs a tornado but I’m sure Upton is investigating. 

Zero up here. Heard a rumble or two of thunder. 

91 here. First 90+ in quite some time. 

44 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Gonna be a big upwelling day along the beaches. Cold surf coming back? Dropped down into the 50s last time this happened. 

These big onshore flow days actually depress upwelling. The offshore flow days where the heat makes it to the shore actually help upwelling. 

54 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It’ll be sad to see the strong storms over NJ hit the sea breeze wall and collapse later.  

Maybe we can salvage a few showers east of the city. Looking like a coastal drought summer developing, delayed but not denied. Until the WAR can build west I think the gorgeous but largely boring pattern continues. 

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

a real drought is far different from a dry period we are having now...if it continues for another 10 years it would equal the 1956-1965 period...

We could easily have 2 tropical systems come up here in August and any dry spell is long gone. It’s incredibly hard to get more than a short lived moderate drought here. 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

Perma-Nina rages on. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll take for it to finally end. The Southwest really needs for that to happen. 

Just now, bluewave said:

Could start to see flooding in the locations that get the best training.

 

 

Yep, just south of me approaching 1” in N Melville.

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i am surprised it made it to 90 in central park does not feel that bad due to comfortable dewpoints in the low 50's

Made it to 91 here but now 80 after the sea breeze started. That lifted the dew points up to the low 60s. 

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Max here today was quite late; 87° at 5:49pm.  An hour later its down to 83.  Turning into a nice evening.  It could be worse...Paris flirting with 100 for at least a couple of days (Paris, France, that is; it was only 95 in Paris, TX) .

We definitely lucked out (if you’re anti-heat) with the constant blocking which sticks the trough over the NE. We really need the Midwest ridge to be dominant and have a hot westerly downslope flow for us to really heat up. We’ll likely eventually be under the WAR that will heat us up to low-mid 90s with atrocious humidity. That’s become the norm here. Bring the Carolinas north to our area. 

I always LOL when the cold front passes and the coast finally heats up from the warm NYC air coming through.

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s 

More likely than not we end up with the usual South Shore drought season, delayed not denied. The upper level support also looked to be a bit too far SW for us this morning. 

57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

And right on schedule the radar is lit up! Bring on some heavy rain! 

Most of it looks to end up SW of the city. The stuff over upstate NY looks to be weakening as it approaches while the storms over NJ are maintaining. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

These big ridge expansions over the Plains and Great Lakes are closer to 2010-2013 than 2018-2021. Today is the warmest day in Chicago since July 2012. So maybe the Euro will be correct about that big push of heat into our area next week when the ridge amplifies again. 
 

 

If it’s going to happen that we push upper 90s or over 100 that’s how it happens-the drier heat builds up to the west and surges in. We need the westerly downsloping wind to really get the record challenging numbers. 

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The Newark area seems to be the hottest place in the summer for the NY metro area, maybe parts of the city can be as hot. As for Newark, no surprise with all the concrete, industrial facilities and missing out on the sea breeze.

On some days they can have a breeze from Newark Bay but generally yes. The hottest place in the entire metro might be central Queens near Maspeth/Corona. I believe Bluewave posted a map some time ago. LGA can get the NE breeze from the sound and JFK obviously has the seabreeze almost every day. Central Park would also be a regular hot spot if there wasn’t the issue with the thermometer. 

Loud thunder a couple hours ago, looks like about an inch of rain total per radar estimate. Wet pattern continues. 

First gross humidity day of I’m sure many this summer.

Just some light rain here with occasional thunder. Nassau is the place to be for this batch.

Round 2 incoming for N Nassau and Suffolk. Also looks like a very slow moving cell around Hempstead/Uniondale. 

Nice soaking so far, probably about 0.5” or so here. Looks like Round 2 overnight coming through the Catskills now.