jm1220

Finally hit 32 in NW Nassau. 

Stuck at 35 since the front went through. For most of us except well NW this will be a dodged bullet. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Everyone has their own personal definition of what makes a good winter.

For me it's a game to reach average annual snowfall. At 50% now. Hoping to make it.

If winter ended now I’d give it a C/C-. Cold and snowy January but normal is still 8-9 more inches here (have about 24”, average is 32-33” here). December was a disaster. Hopefully Feb can have some snowy periods to get us above average. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup. Although temperatures dropped they ain't going to freezing until well after precip ends. 

Only areas well N&W will. 

Yep. We got down to 35 here and that seems to be it for now. Temps north of here are above freezing for a good distance. 

Snow coverage here down to mostly piles in any exposed area. My backyard is covered but looks very sad lol. Big melt/slush pool on one side. It got wrecked. 

So far there’s a good lag in getting the temp below 35 or so east of the city. Temps in SW CT are sticking at around 33-35. 

Down almost immediately to 40 here. That was quick. But we’ll see how fast it keeps going down to below 32.

Next question will be how fast we can get below freezing behind the front. That’s lagging a bit. SW CT behind the front is still above freezing. Freezing line looks to be roughly the Tappan Zee Bridge. 

Can also see the front advancing pretty clearly on the OKX and DIX radars. 

Huge temp gradient already showing up on Long Island. 36 in Bayville, still 50 here maybe 15 miles away. 

Temp still 50 here. Snowpack survived overnight in my yard for the most part but some bare patches appearing. 

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

lol

 

That’s insane. I had way less than Boston but still way more than that left lol. 

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I'm fairing far better then Boston lol

Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left. 

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long.

About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again. 

Not too worried about the city and near the coast anymore. The boundary has slowly been delayed in getting here on the models today and GFS just delayed it again and removes most precip after it. Could there be a glaze-sure, but the real ice threat will be north of the city. Lots of rain and unfortunately snow melt before. Most of us other than the really crushed spots will be down to piles by the time the cold gets here again. Next 24 hours with high humidity will eat it right up.

Any amount of ice is an issue but over 0.3” or so can create real problems and is at the point where tree limbs start to break. Hopefully that’s overdone. If the precip is light it might create more of a problem actually. Lighter rain is more likely to freeze on contact vs heavy rain much of which would run off at temps above 28 or so. 

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep NAM still not backing down on the amped/warm solution but still a little beyond its best range.

Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. 

I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever. 

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

I think alot of it has to do with their climo being very similar to one another. CNJ/NYC/LI all average roughly 25-33" of snow while snowfall averages double that once you get 40 or so miles N & NW. Geographically places in Orange county are closer to Central Park than parts of Western Suffolk.

I’ve always thought of the eastern half of LI as being more similar to New England climo wise-like Cape Cod than Mid Atlantic but it’s still part of the NYC metro area. So who knows. 

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.  

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above  850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing. 

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Freezing rain storms are pretty rare in these parts. Climo says if anything we are more likely to see sleet? 

Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think. 

The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down. 

Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer. 

UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. 

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster.

Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? 

I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. 

I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro. 

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.