jm1220

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks Like Mytle Beach will take the brunt of the surge now...

Georgetown probably the worst. Both cities are near high tide right now so timing is bad.

Charleston escaping the storm surge but the rain flooding there will likely be obscene. They might get 10” by the time this band over them subsides? 

6 minutes ago, Martytdx said:

That's the unspoken (mostly) problem with disasters like this - the amount of trash that needs to be disposed of. Clean up creates a TREMENDOUS amount of garbage that has to do somewhere, and often in places without adequate facilities to deal with it. Not to mention the massive amount of garbage that gets pulled back into the sea to be spread out throughout the region. 

And think about it: they're going to be pulling nails and other hazards out of those beaches for years, especially those shallow bays. 

Yup, this will really take months just to get a basic standard of living back in the devastated areas and years to start to get things back to a new kind of normal. The bridges taken out just themselves will take-6 months to repair? 

Georgetown SC high tide is at 1pm. They’re in some trouble I think. 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems that when tropical systems make landfall and are transitioning to extra-tropical, the landfall speeds up a bit.

It’s being Fujiwara-ed around the upper level disturbance it’s getting near I think. It’s making one last attempt to wrap some convection around the center, but 85mph looks to be the landfall strength. 

Just now, ATDoel said:

building codes absolutely work.  You can always sink piers deeper and raise the first floor higher if you're trying to keep a building safe from storm surge.  You can always reinforce roofs and walls so they can withstand cat 5 winds.

It just takes more money, but really not THAT much more.  I do firmly believe that any building in a surge prone area should have to be self insured though.

The rebuilt homes there will likely have to be on stilts or have their main living area 9ft or higher above ground level in order to get any kind of flood insurance after this (and FL already has an insurance crisis ongoing). It’s going to be a rough road. I’d say that some of those islands may not be worth rebuilding but given the population boom, I’m sure they all will be. 

Storm is moving quicker too. High tide at Myrtle Beach is 11:30am, can’t imagine this is great timing. Tide will be going out as it comes in, so that’s a plus I guess. 

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Everything is in tact for demolition? Well thank the lord. Instead of a smoldering pile of trash, I have a well organized one. Thank goodness for modern building codes.

 

What am I missing here? 

Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of. 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Structurally might look good, but you can't tell what it looks like from the air with a 10' wall of water moving through.

Exactly, anywhere that had surge flooding has tons of water damage inside and has to be gutted, if not torn down because mold will start up soon. Unless these building codes have mold resistant walls. 

Core is trying to tighten up again, looks like convection is attempting to wrap around. It’s interacting with a trough to the west and I agree it definitely looks more like a nor’easter but it’s trying to make something of a comeback. 

21 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Where was this in July?

Hopefully it’s right but I don’t count rain for the parched areas until it’s in the bucket. Conditions are favorable for a soaking if it comes together, but it could also be a bunch of light showery stuff if the coastal development doesn’t happen or happens too far offshore. 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

is the euro nor'easter real or amped up bs?

Hopefully real to some extent. We could also get a lot of light/scattered crap that adds up to maybe 0.75" in a day which wouldn't be helpful. Would be remembered as just a raw, blustery weekend. 

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Believe me, no one is using this thread full of nut-jobs to make decisions. It's really more for ease of aggregation of information (ie. models, met commentary, etc.) in one place. I really don't care what Bob Smith in Philly thinks is going to occur.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is very wet 

Hope it’s right. Would be worst for people who need it. 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive.

It had the pressure of a Cat 3, huge overall size and the funneling effect of NY Harbor and back bays to channel in the surge. The winds weren’t Cat 3 level but the same energy was just spread over a larger area. The surge was devastating for millions of people. Actual Hurricane Gloria made landfall in my town and was nowhere near as bad, as well as actual borderline TS/Hurricane Irene. 

Again there’s no magic delineator between “non-tropical” and “tropical” that defines how dangerous a storm is. It’s why so many changes were made to the NHC products after Sandy. My hometown on a barrier island had scores of people that stayed because they heard “Sandy won’t even be a hurricane” when it gets here. 

Some places preemptively cut the power in FL where surge intrusion was expected, which was probably a very good call if it happened. Another mistake my town made was keeping the power grid on even as the surge was charging in.   

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sandy more or less destroyed the power grid from Tom’s River up to Brooklyn/Queens and most areas had power back in about 7-10 days. Now a days you have massive mobilizations of crews from out of state, the power wouldn’t be out for more than a few weeks.

My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys. 

12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

This will be rough for SC. Huge area of TS to minimal hurricane winds will move a lot of water. It's more the size of the high wind area vs the strength of the wind that determines the surge. That plus any harbors/rivers to funnel it in which SC especially near Charleston has plenty of. 

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

There’s already an insurance crisis in FL which I won’t get further into but I’m sure this will make much worse. 

I’m not too familiar with the Gulf FL coast, but it’s the same story in SE FL which I’ve visited many times since I have family/friends there. Every time I go it somehow gets more built up, and tons of developments around easily flooded canals/drainage ditches. I think the one thing that’ll finally stop the influx of newcomers is insane cost of living and unavailability of insurance. Basic 1 bedroom apartments are $2000+/month now without the corresponding salaries you’d get in the NE. It’s just insanity. 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. 

But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of. 

Agreed 100%. 

But the peaking before landfall isn’t unheard of but it seems more common especially in the last 10 years. Camille 1969 slammed into the N Gulf as a Cat 5. 

S FL’s population explosion was a catastrophe waiting to happen. And you can make building codes as tough as you want, people will still die when 6-10 feet of water comes charging through the neighborhood. 

The next one is the PBI to MIA stretch. Way overdue for a massive strike and even north of West Palm Beach is becoming overdeveloped. Thankfully that stretch isn’t too surge prone but when so many live just over sea level it doesn’t matter. 

2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall

Not to go too far down this rabbit hole but “not tropical” doesn’t make it less severe. The most devastating part of any storm tropical or not is the surge, and “not tropical” Sandy was horrendous on that end as was 1938 and Fiona which just hit Canada. That’s another bias people need to get out of their head. 

Hopefully for the south shore there’s a good soaking. It’ll be a nasty Saturday anyway with the increased winds/clouds so hopefully we can at least get the rain up here. 

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning.  A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall.  As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone.  Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby.

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

Easy. They have a list of places they evacuated and a list of those who stayed in those evacuated places. 

Doubt if they know for sure they stayed or if they got out at the last minute. No one knows for sure how high the death tolls are right now, hopefully it’s a significant overestimate. Too early to speculate on something like that and I’m sure crews are out doing rescues, but it wouldn’t be surprising if many did decide to stay that there’s a high death toll. Hundreds of thousands of people live in that area. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is just awful news is true, and totally presentable.

Very densely populated down there, and anecdotal stories that many decided not to evacuate. Hopefully not true and hopefully many can still be rescued if they decided to stay.