jm1220

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Have to assume an extreme wind warning is coming very soon. Eyewall knocking on the door of the coast next few hours. Also frictional convergence should tighten up the eyewall and close it off again.

Yep, eyewall looks to be only 15 miles off the beach which is where the extremely strong surge and wind would be. Only a few hours away from Captiva on north. 

Wow, certainly wasn’t expected for it to ramp up like this in intensity. Have to think this will be devastating to inland buildings even with the good building codes with this duration of strong winds, and the surge will be horrendous for a wide stretch probably from Ft Myers north. Charlotte Harbor area will be absolutely wrecked, probably much worse than Charley since that was a tiny core. Sarasota area also in for a huge impact with the north jog. Hopefully there can be a bit of a cycle down at least before it makes landfall so it can come in at 140-145 instead of 155. Just wow. 

Looks like this EWRC will be completed pretty rapidly. Wonder if it’ll have time to strengthen more/consolidate the new eye before landfall. 

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

It would have to hook NE pretty much to miss Naples/Marco Island to the south which is a stretch. 

10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If you look at the Hires images, the EURO strengthens Ian all the way till landfall at Charlotte Harbor. Devastating run for them. It's a whole different ball game now that the trough has caught Ian and is pulling it NE. This may act to encourage strengthening all the way till landfall with the additional aid to outflow ventilation. As opposed to meandering storm in the cooler waters near the big bend (further north).

Probably hoping for a lucky EWRC at this point. The dry air/cool water saving grace wont happen in time. 

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Only way out is for landfall Marco Island on South.  Anything north of there is going to inflict much damage and hurt.  Not sure that Marco Island on south can be pulled off at this point.

Lots of inlets and bays too that will funnel the surge. This is gonna be a bad one for a lot of people. Looks like people there are taking it seriously though and getting out. 

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers.

Lakes must be really warm for that to happen. 

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell. 

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.00” at the wantagh meso. Really just a bad joke at the point. .05” maybe with the tail
End


.

Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

Rain starting up again. I have 1.3-1.5" already by radar estimate. And finally S Nassau getting in on some of the action. 

I don't think any hail here but it's an absolute gusher. 

Downpour, frequent lightning. We'll see if any hail makes it here. 

Looks like a hail core around Albertson area headed toward Jericho.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Those storms look nasty 

About to get rocked here, loud thunder currently

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php

Opal had the pinhole eye that essentially folded like a house of cards. I guess once it gets to that high category state it needs perfection especially when the core is that tiny. Anything goes wrong and it collapses. I'm sure the dry air near the continent helped too. 

This one does seem to be more at risk at having that 1990s-2000s Gulf half-a-cane outcome if the departing trough throws down too much dry air. But the Gulf is untouched this year by any hurricane so who knows how long this could sustain for in the N Gulf. 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there. 

 

You live through something like that once then believe me, you never want to again. NYC area after Sandy was mostly pure hell for a month after especially where the surge hit. My town had no drinkable water for 10 days and no power for a month along with the huge surge damage. And Fiona was worse for these people.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Morning survey. Strongest winds are here now. 
 

 

Wonder how much that sting Jet remains but I’m sure that means business. Sable Island gusted to 120mph on that jet? 

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I doubt this still has an eyewall.  

Yep that's not an eyewall anymore, it's more like a frontal boundary now.

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Josh just tweeted:

11:30 pm. Odd storm. Radar says the heavy rain has passed. I don't think even gusts reached gale force in Sydney. Rain has now slackened to drizzle. Perhaps we'll get strong winds on dry side of storm, as can happen with these (apparently) post-tropical cyclones. #FIONA

I'd bet where those small cells come onto land, that very strong winds are happening there. During Sandy those were where the really strong (80-90mph gusts) mixed down. And the sting jet behind the center would be another spot. 

Where those “cells” are popping up to the right of the center will likely have the strongest winds. 

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true.  In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County.  Both were Cat 1’s.  Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa.  If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region.  Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category.  The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning.  You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself.  In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby. 

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I don't think I have ever head of a storm declared post tropical with cat 3 winds.

But I mean-it is post tropical. It doesn’t have a symmetric warm core CDO anymore for sure, and you can see for the last few hours the cold air stratocumulus wrapping into the storm. There’s also the classic baroclinic leaf growing out NW of the storm. Takes nothing away from its destruction and I think Environment Canada will treat “post tropical hurricanes” differently after this storm. Thank goodness it’s not headed directly into Halifax or just west. 

3 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

It does look very Sandy-esque on satellite 

Same evolution as Sandy so pretty much the same result except a good bit worse because of the marine heatwave in the area and it being a month earlier. Judging by the radar a bit of west movement now? 

Sandy was 945mb at landfall, looks like those insane model runs in the 920s-930 will be right. Yikes.