jm1220

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

Perma-Nina rages on. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll take for it to finally end. The Southwest really needs for that to happen. 

Just now, bluewave said:

Could start to see flooding in the locations that get the best training.

 

 

Yep, just south of me approaching 1” in N Melville.

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i am surprised it made it to 90 in central park does not feel that bad due to comfortable dewpoints in the low 50's

Made it to 91 here but now 80 after the sea breeze started. That lifted the dew points up to the low 60s. 

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Max here today was quite late; 87° at 5:49pm.  An hour later its down to 83.  Turning into a nice evening.  It could be worse...Paris flirting with 100 for at least a couple of days (Paris, France, that is; it was only 95 in Paris, TX) .

We definitely lucked out (if you’re anti-heat) with the constant blocking which sticks the trough over the NE. We really need the Midwest ridge to be dominant and have a hot westerly downslope flow for us to really heat up. We’ll likely eventually be under the WAR that will heat us up to low-mid 90s with atrocious humidity. That’s become the norm here. Bring the Carolinas north to our area. 

I always LOL when the cold front passes and the coast finally heats up from the warm NYC air coming through.

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s 

More likely than not we end up with the usual South Shore drought season, delayed not denied. The upper level support also looked to be a bit too far SW for us this morning. 

57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

And right on schedule the radar is lit up! Bring on some heavy rain! 

Most of it looks to end up SW of the city. The stuff over upstate NY looks to be weakening as it approaches while the storms over NJ are maintaining. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

These big ridge expansions over the Plains and Great Lakes are closer to 2010-2013 than 2018-2021. Today is the warmest day in Chicago since July 2012. So maybe the Euro will be correct about that big push of heat into our area next week when the ridge amplifies again. 
 

 

If it’s going to happen that we push upper 90s or over 100 that’s how it happens-the drier heat builds up to the west and surges in. We need the westerly downsloping wind to really get the record challenging numbers. 

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The Newark area seems to be the hottest place in the summer for the NY metro area, maybe parts of the city can be as hot. As for Newark, no surprise with all the concrete, industrial facilities and missing out on the sea breeze.

On some days they can have a breeze from Newark Bay but generally yes. The hottest place in the entire metro might be central Queens near Maspeth/Corona. I believe Bluewave posted a map some time ago. LGA can get the NE breeze from the sound and JFK obviously has the seabreeze almost every day. Central Park would also be a regular hot spot if there wasn’t the issue with the thermometer. 

Loud thunder a couple hours ago, looks like about an inch of rain total per radar estimate. Wet pattern continues. 

First gross humidity day of I’m sure many this summer.

Just some light rain here with occasional thunder. Nassau is the place to be for this batch.

Round 2 incoming for N Nassau and Suffolk. Also looks like a very slow moving cell around Hempstead/Uniondale. 

Nice soaking so far, probably about 0.5” or so here. Looks like Round 2 overnight coming through the Catskills now. 

12 minutes ago, Shades said:

LGA OBS

7:51 91F

8:28 70F

 

The front must have rushed down the Sound and got held up over LI. It just passed here and I’m a 40 min drive east of Queens without traffic. 

5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Possibly interaction with the SBF is holding it’s progress over the island?

You can actually see how the forks and Peconic Bay are interacting with the front. Looks like Riverhead will cross both the sea breeze and back door front at once. Looks like the front still won't be to the city for a few more hours. It's slowed down some. The sea breeze will be through most of LI before the backdoor. Sea breeze is just about up to Jericho Turnpike. NW then S then E winds today. 

Back door front pushing west into the Hamptons, and a sea breeze front pushing into the south shore. Cool radar animations today showing the fronts. It’ll be interesting to see if the pollen storm picks back up. 

Wow, stations in southern Nassau now in the upper 90s. Looks like there’s a seabreeze that punched through the barrier islands, they’re down to upper 80s and winds turned S. 

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

looks lke relieve won't make it to the city until this evenlng.

Yeah, way too late to do anything about the heat this afternoon. Probably 6-7pm it should be in the city and starting over the next hour or so over eastern Suffolk. 

94 here. I think it’s our hottest day of the season now. 

Wow, Long Beach up to 93. These NW flow days are really how you get the immediate coast to bake. There’s a bit of a downslope component as well. The cool spots are actually near the sound where the flow is off the water. 

Just now, dWave said:

Wtf man..that looks like a horror movie lol

another reason to not like back door cold fronts

Several times I remember growing up and watching the stratus come in as the back door arrived. 70s to 50 in an hour. This should be a dramatic fall off like what happened in coastal New England. 

First 90 for Long Beach. 91 where I am in S Huntington. Hottest area looks to be in SW Nassau around the JFK area/5 towns. 

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Is it supposed to slow down? At this rate it could make it to the City a bit earlier than expected which I think was around 8PM.

Not likely. Models are pretty insistent that it makes it to NYC by 6pm or so. It’ll probably start through LI by mid afternoon. 

13 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Timing on the BDF for LI? It’s flat out stifling right now. Temp 88

Bangor, ME reporting 52 with light rain. Jealous 

You can see the progress of the front on Boston radar as a skinny green line progressing SW. Looks like it’s about to go through Providence and it’s making good headway SW. It’ll probably be to NYC by the evening but not in time for us not to get into the 90s today.