jm1220

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Gfs, cmc and rgem  With an additional inch plus through Tuesday. Nam is dry

Hopefully but as today proves, don’t count any rain this year until it’s in the bucket. 

Sun is out here in Long Beach. 

Another big mehh. The rain split is real obviously, and another general screw job. Hopefully by the end we get to 1" but from here on looks like scattered showers and a blustery/raw day. Just what I was worried about. Any rain is good for the south shore but the drought lives on.

11 minutes ago, jacindc said:

There's also the matter of how much expense the building codes add to the cost of a home, which is clearly an issue when you see how many people of fewer means are living in those developments that are just row upon row of manufactured houses. The fact that more homes on Sanibel withstood the surge (or at least their frames did) is as much a statement about the financial status of the owners as anything. The working class residents in SW FL are going to be the ones who really end up losing, because you can be sure that affordable little cottages and new manufactured home developments won't be high up on the rebuild priority.

 

Yup, unfortunately it’ll be a haves/have not situation for those people. It’ll be interesting to see how the insurance industry there handles the avalanche of claims coming in when it’s already been in deep doo doo for some time. The lifeline for the less well off will be FEMA and what grants they can get in order to take care of the essentials and finding a suitable place to live in the meantime. FEMA I’m sure will have to set up camps to house people. But there’s no way Sanibel/Fort Myers can rebuild the way it was before and still be insured. The houses will have to be on stilts or the bottom 10 feet be a concrete garage, above that be any living area. Building codes for wind do bupkis for surge, and it’s only a matter of time before it happens again. Pretty much all of the homes that look OK from the outside there have enormous water damage and have to be gutted if not demolished. 

I don’t count any rain until it’s in the bucket this year. A split like that with the main precip offshore wouldn’t shock me at all. I’m in Long Beach now and anything not regularly irrigated is dead. Horrible to see. 

Winds are from the E at Myrtle Beach so the center must be close by. Maybe in between Georgetown and there? 

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said, just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

 

 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

That’s a break for Georgetown then. Their high tide was at 1pm. 

Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding.

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

In Long Beach we have hundreds or more homes now that are garages on the first floor and the living area on the 2nd/3rd. The bottom garage floor is mostly concrete. Either that or the home will have to be on stilts, which isn't "pleasing" but either that or it'll be uninsurable. Optimally these barrier islands just wouldn't be rebuilt but we're talking about FL here.

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks Like Mytle Beach will take the brunt of the surge now...

Georgetown probably the worst. Both cities are near high tide right now so timing is bad.

Charleston escaping the storm surge but the rain flooding there will likely be obscene. They might get 10” by the time this band over them subsides? 

6 minutes ago, Martytdx said:

That's the unspoken (mostly) problem with disasters like this - the amount of trash that needs to be disposed of. Clean up creates a TREMENDOUS amount of garbage that has to do somewhere, and often in places without adequate facilities to deal with it. Not to mention the massive amount of garbage that gets pulled back into the sea to be spread out throughout the region. 

And think about it: they're going to be pulling nails and other hazards out of those beaches for years, especially those shallow bays. 

Yup, this will really take months just to get a basic standard of living back in the devastated areas and years to start to get things back to a new kind of normal. The bridges taken out just themselves will take-6 months to repair? 

Georgetown SC high tide is at 1pm. They’re in some trouble I think. 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Seems that when tropical systems make landfall and are transitioning to extra-tropical, the landfall speeds up a bit.

It’s being Fujiwara-ed around the upper level disturbance it’s getting near I think. It’s making one last attempt to wrap some convection around the center, but 85mph looks to be the landfall strength. 

Just now, ATDoel said:

building codes absolutely work.  You can always sink piers deeper and raise the first floor higher if you're trying to keep a building safe from storm surge.  You can always reinforce roofs and walls so they can withstand cat 5 winds.

It just takes more money, but really not THAT much more.  I do firmly believe that any building in a surge prone area should have to be self insured though.

The rebuilt homes there will likely have to be on stilts or have their main living area 9ft or higher above ground level in order to get any kind of flood insurance after this (and FL already has an insurance crisis ongoing). It’s going to be a rough road. I’d say that some of those islands may not be worth rebuilding but given the population boom, I’m sure they all will be. 

Storm is moving quicker too. High tide at Myrtle Beach is 11:30am, can’t imagine this is great timing. Tide will be going out as it comes in, so that’s a plus I guess. 

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Everything is in tact for demolition? Well thank the lord. Instead of a smoldering pile of trash, I have a well organized one. Thank goodness for modern building codes.

 

What am I missing here? 

Unless they’re building sea walls after this, one day the devastation will just happen again on those barrier islands/surge zones. Not sure what building code can keep the building from taking horrible water damage. Saw it firsthand after Sandy, buildings from the outside looked not terrible but inside- totally wrecked and in many cases needed to be demolished. The barrier islands may be easier, in those cases the demolishing was already taken care of. 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Structurally might look good, but you can't tell what it looks like from the air with a 10' wall of water moving through.

Exactly, anywhere that had surge flooding has tons of water damage inside and has to be gutted, if not torn down because mold will start up soon. Unless these building codes have mold resistant walls. 

Core is trying to tighten up again, looks like convection is attempting to wrap around. It’s interacting with a trough to the west and I agree it definitely looks more like a nor’easter but it’s trying to make something of a comeback. 

21 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Where was this in July?

Hopefully it’s right but I don’t count rain for the parched areas until it’s in the bucket. Conditions are favorable for a soaking if it comes together, but it could also be a bunch of light showery stuff if the coastal development doesn’t happen or happens too far offshore. 

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

is the euro nor'easter real or amped up bs?

Hopefully real to some extent. We could also get a lot of light/scattered crap that adds up to maybe 0.75" in a day which wouldn't be helpful. Would be remembered as just a raw, blustery weekend. 

7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Believe me, no one is using this thread full of nut-jobs to make decisions. It's really more for ease of aggregation of information (ie. models, met commentary, etc.) in one place. I really don't care what Bob Smith in Philly thinks is going to occur.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is very wet 

Hope it’s right. Would be worst for people who need it. 

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sandy wasn't a Cat 3 or higher hurricane. ....the damage would be far more extensive.

It had the pressure of a Cat 3, huge overall size and the funneling effect of NY Harbor and back bays to channel in the surge. The winds weren’t Cat 3 level but the same energy was just spread over a larger area. The surge was devastating for millions of people. Actual Hurricane Gloria made landfall in my town and was nowhere near as bad, as well as actual borderline TS/Hurricane Irene. 

Again there’s no magic delineator between “non-tropical” and “tropical” that defines how dangerous a storm is. It’s why so many changes were made to the NHC products after Sandy. My hometown on a barrier island had scores of people that stayed because they heard “Sandy won’t even be a hurricane” when it gets here. 

Some places preemptively cut the power in FL where surge intrusion was expected, which was probably a very good call if it happened. Another mistake my town made was keeping the power grid on even as the surge was charging in.   

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sandy more or less destroyed the power grid from Tom’s River up to Brooklyn/Queens and most areas had power back in about 7-10 days. Now a days you have massive mobilizations of crews from out of state, the power wouldn’t be out for more than a few weeks.

My town had no power for a month because of the power infrastructure problem FL will be dealing with. Places that didn’t flood in Sandy did get the power back in a week or so, and crews from IN and MO were in my town working on it. In areas that had saltwater intrusion into any power infrastructure it likely needs to be rebuilt entirely. Anything electric/metallic, the salt water destroys.