jm1220

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I'm fairing far better then Boston lol

Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left. 

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long.

About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again. 

Not too worried about the city and near the coast anymore. The boundary has slowly been delayed in getting here on the models today and GFS just delayed it again and removes most precip after it. Could there be a glaze-sure, but the real ice threat will be north of the city. Lots of rain and unfortunately snow melt before. Most of us other than the really crushed spots will be down to piles by the time the cold gets here again. Next 24 hours with high humidity will eat it right up.

Any amount of ice is an issue but over 0.3” or so can create real problems and is at the point where tree limbs start to break. Hopefully that’s overdone. If the precip is light it might create more of a problem actually. Lighter rain is more likely to freeze on contact vs heavy rain much of which would run off at temps above 28 or so. 

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep NAM still not backing down on the amped/warm solution but still a little beyond its best range.

Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. 

I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever. 

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

I think alot of it has to do with their climo being very similar to one another. CNJ/NYC/LI all average roughly 25-33" of snow while snowfall averages double that once you get 40 or so miles N & NW. Geographically places in Orange county are closer to Central Park than parts of Western Suffolk.

I’ve always thought of the eastern half of LI as being more similar to New England climo wise-like Cape Cod than Mid Atlantic but it’s still part of the NYC metro area. So who knows. 

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.  

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above  850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing. 

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Freezing rain storms are pretty rare in these parts. Climo says if anything we are more likely to see sleet? 

Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think. 

The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down. 

Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer. 

UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. 

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster.

Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? 

I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. 

I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro. 

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

It would take a lot going right for there to be snow down to NYC with this. There’s cold at the surface but a nasty warm layer above from the warm air being lifted in the overrunning. I think the ice storm makes sense here but the question is where. Probably the first time ever I’m rooting for the sleet storm. It’ll make the snowpack way denser and bulletproof. 

On 1/30/2022 at 2:22 PM, psv88 said:

Just drove around western Suffolk. The difference between Huntington and Melville and Dix hills and commack is pretty substantial. Once you hit exit 42 on the northern amounts really go up. Looked like a solid 4-5” inches more in commack than Huntington. I could definitely see Huntington only getting 12’” or so. 

I just drove up Rt 231 from Babylon to Jericho Tpke and Sunrise Highway east from Wantagh. The whole area from Seaford to Babylon to around the LIE got slammed. I definitely believe the 20+ totals there. Amounts decreased a little in Dix Hills and a little more by the time you get to my house. It looks almost dead on like after the 2/1 storm last year which was 15” for me, so that’s probably what I got this time here. Looks a little more overall than Long Beach has but there was a lot more drifting there. Some lawns there are bare, some clogged in snow so I think 12” for Long Beach is good. 
 

Tomorrow I’ll drive down Vets Highway past MacArthur to Patchogue and really salivate. 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

With the position of the high and the strength, expect this to trend south.

Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is. 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even though sleet is obviously mixed in the pink, that would accumulate.

Pretty much a weenie GFS run overall.

I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement. 

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would be happy with the warmer Euro and GEM for our area since I am not a big fan of ice. 
 

 

I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere. 

I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Atlantic City-incredible. 3 significant winter storms for them this month. 

For the season I probably have about 25” in Huntington Station. 

The bickering is ridiculous, like hurts my eyeballs to look at ridiculous. 

Elmont 17.3”, I’m calling BS on that one. 

Orient 25”,’ wow, but they were sitting under that final band for hours. There are probably lots of 20-25” in the Hamptons and N Fork. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes the tiny flake size?  is that a function of temp (higher temps give you giant flake size as the flakes melt together and refreeze on each other) and you get sound effect snow in Long Beach?

 

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

ah okay so Jan 2016 totals with higher than a 10:1 ratio can happen with higher winds if those other factors (flake size, etc.) are better?

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.