jm1220

9 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

You're a true diehard.  Once we get nice days like this, I don't even want to think about snow until November or December.  

Brutal up there now and in MT where lows will be in the single digits. As wintry there in mid April as it ever gets here. Always fascinating to be in a blizzard especially a historic one like this in the region. They usually get 4-8” type storms not 2 feet. The drifting there must be absolutely insane. The heaviest amounts will probably be near Minot which is under the pivoting upper low. 

68 right now. Overperformer on temps at least here on the north shore. South shore looks stuck in the 50s. 

Looks like ND got NAM’d to an extent and had the heavy snow too far north. They’re in for a huge event across 80% of the state. Jealous. Very rare for them to get the kind of snow in one storm we get. 

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Portland Oregon getting unprecedented April snow!

https://twitter.com/search?q="Snow in April"&src=trend_click&pt=1513480229645287435&vertical=trends

 

Big ND snow upcoming. Some places there likely 24". Bismarck has a tough forecast, riding the rain/snow/dryslot line. We'd be on pins and needles if we lived there. Delayed but not denied for ND, looks like mostly below average for snow this season. Bismarck has about as much as ISP this winter but they average 45" or so.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

First 70+ day for JFK on Tuesday?

 

Possible if the seabreeze can be held off. You really need the west/NW wind this time of year for any warmth at the coast. Today was great here for once with temps in the mid 60s. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we could see 70s on Tuesday with the warm downslope flow. Then a possible backdoor for Wednesday. This is followed by a warm front for Thursday. 

 

With the trough hanging strong east of here/the Maritimes it’s more likely than not we have a back door front at least nearby. They always seem to be more sweeping than advertised 4-5 days out as well. 

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Does this mean the climate models were wrong?  I distinctly remember that back in 2020 the prediction was made that NYC would average 3 100+ days every summer by 2050 and NYC's climate would become like Atlanta's.  Will there come a time when the warming will become so extreme that it won't matter where the high is anchored or how much it rains, coastal areas will hit 100 no matter what?

 

 

What’s more likely is our climate becomes like the coastal Carolinas. You don’t hear about Charleston SC hitting 100 very often but they’re in the low to mid 90s all the time with atrocious humidity. We’re already at the point especially in August where the sea breeze doesn’t cool things down much, it just increases the humidity. We’re also at a longer term raised hurricane risk if the waters will keep warming up and the mean ridge position keeps coming north. It’ll mean a southerly flow into our area instead of the usual recurves out to sea. We’re seeing the overshooting heat waves into ME/Ontario already. It’s counterintuitive but when we’re hot with westerly winds, the waters cool down due to upwelling. Southerly onshore winds help the coastal waters warm up faster. 

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

both storms totals combined were a bust for central park..

I wouldn’t say the storm last night was a bust. The heavy rain was always favored to be north and west of the city on the models. The first storm was somewhat of a bust. It dried up on the northern edge. You could say that NYC/LI were shafted relatively for both storms. 

16 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

That batch traversing the Delmarva looks juicy for us later 

Guess we’ll see. Models are overwhelmingly favoring NW areas for most of the rain. 

45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have feeling we take a real hit this summer. Gloria in 85 was the last real hurricane to hit Long Island. We are more then due

I know it’s OT but Sandy was a 946mb storm when it struck ACY and we were in the right front quadrant. It’s the worst storm that many of us will see in our lifetimes. It was a Cat 3 intensity storm but spread over a huge area so the top winds were reduced, but the surge stayed huge. 

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Would have been a nice snow storm mid winter. Nothing historic but a solid warning event. 

Not even. It would be a nice event but we’d be mad that the northern edge where we are is drying up and the heavy snow would be in S NJ. For liquid most of us in NYC/LI are about half an inch which would be maybe 6” or so with ratios. N of the city practically nothing. S NJ would be way better since ACY has nearly 2” from this. This storm fits the progressive winter pattern where we get a squashed fast mover. 

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

There is a torch for next week

Depends on how far the storm over the weekend can clear east of us. If it gets stuck over the Maritimes and heights stay low there, good chance there will be a backdoor front nearby. It'll encourage a high to develop NE of Maine and easterly flow. If it heads east and there's no blocking, we'll get the nice westerly flow for a day or two. Looks short lived unfortunately.

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Not sure if its right or not but the 12z NAM got quite a bit wetter for mid to late week. 

Yep, got much wetter. Good news for the drought. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns.  We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring.  

After the event in 15-16

 

Before

 

Yeah, garbage. Hopefully we can get the tropics to reshuffle to stop this never ending Nina or Nina like outcome. Big part of it seems to be how the W PAC has warmed so much.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy. 
 

 

So annoying how this keeps popping up in April now. Does us diddly squat. 

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. 

 
 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	38.3
ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	38.0
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	37.7
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	37.0
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	33.8
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	33.6
RIDGE 1.5 SE	CoCoRaHS	31.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	30.9

 

Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	28.0
WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	27.3
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	27.3
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	26.1
VERNON TWP 1.7 N	CoCoRaHS	23.9
NEWTON 0.3 W	CoCoRaHS	21.9
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	21.7

 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW	COOP	64.8
NEWTON 0.3 W	CoCoRaHS	63.9
SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	63.7
MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	63.5
SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW	CoCoRaHS	61.0

 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	46.1
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	41.3
PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	39.3
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	38.2
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	37.8
CENTERPORT	COOP	36.7
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	35.4
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	33.5

Going with 31.5” final snow for the season here. Overall just about average. Shame that the 1/29 storm couldn’t have been just a little better developed and spread heavier snow back into the city. 

Glad this is after it would be a snow event. Next storm tomorrow night is trending to how others did this winter into a shredded suppressed mess. Hopefully it can be salvageable for places SW of here now in a drought.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was the driest JFM on record for several locations in the West. 
 

 

 

Not to drag it too off topic but the good news somewhat is that the Colorado River source region in CO did well precip-wise which will head downstream towards AZ. Long term though the West is in a world of hurt without major changes. This perma-Nina needs to end. CA did very well in December but it wasn't enough to really dent the drought since it dried right back up in Jan.

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a cooler start to the month with lingering blocking followed by an eventual warm up as the SE Ridge returns.

 

 

 

Hopefully we can get the ridging to the east of us somewhat. That EPS look screams back door fronts when it does get mild. 

2 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Big marine layer here. I expect just showers

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

If there’s a rumble of thunder that makes it east of NYC consider that a big win this time of year. 

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’ll take it. Beautiful crisp air. Makes me feel refreshed and awake.  
 

Don’t worry guys, I lose by default. It’ll be hot and humid here before you know it. These types of events are transient and rare for us anymore. 
 

What does seem to be increasing is our prevalence for tornadoes; how about that Mullica Hills EF3 last September? Never thought I’d see what appeared to be a Deep South multivortex dirty wedge in NJ 

What’s probably helping are the increasing water temps up here in the summer that are slow to cool down. We also had the tornado outbreak in the fall across Long Island. Warmer waters equal more instability. 

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Can’t get any worse then this morning. Dead flowers everywhere. And not even a dusting.

I did notice driving in this morning that the cross island was buried in salt just north of the lie. I’m talking insane amounts of salt. That’s great for the environment…..

Not sure what the reason is for the constant blocking patterns late in March and into spring the last several seasons but hopefully we can get it to end and have the blocking a month earlier when it can be useful for snow. Amazing how constant these patterns are every year along with the seeming perma-Nina. 

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

sun angle season

 

Hysterical. I know exactly where that is too on campus, went to school there 2005-09. It’s downright nasty there this afternoon with the snow squalls, 30mph gusts and temps not budging out of the low 20s. 

High of 32 here so far, looks like that’ll be it since we’re decreasing again. Hopefully some squalls today. 

Got down to 22 this morning.