jm1220

Extremely symmetrical/well defined eye. Just about picture perfect satellite presentation and definitely primed to go. Fort Myers looking like it’s in a really tough spot. I guess the one hope this doesn’t bring hurt on a lot of people is it somehow keeps trending south past Naples. That whole Tampa to Ft Myers area has exploded in population as others have pointed out, so there’s really no “good” landfall area in that stretch, and it’s also very surge vulnerable especially with a larger storm like this. 

Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers.

Lakes must be really warm for that to happen. 

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea we got crushed last night. Didn’t realize it was that much. Drought busted here. Gotta be over 3.5” for the month now 

We had a drought for maybe 2 weeks up here lol. More like an average dry spell. 

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.00” at the wantagh meso. Really just a bad joke at the point. .05” maybe with the tail
End


.

Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

Rain starting up again. I have 1.3-1.5" already by radar estimate. And finally S Nassau getting in on some of the action. 

I don't think any hail here but it's an absolute gusher. 

Downpour, frequent lightning. We'll see if any hail makes it here. 

Looks like a hail core around Albertson area headed toward Jericho.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Those storms look nasty 

About to get rocked here, loud thunder currently

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php

Opal had the pinhole eye that essentially folded like a house of cards. I guess once it gets to that high category state it needs perfection especially when the core is that tiny. Anything goes wrong and it collapses. I'm sure the dry air near the continent helped too. 

This one does seem to be more at risk at having that 1990s-2000s Gulf half-a-cane outcome if the departing trough throws down too much dry air. But the Gulf is untouched this year by any hurricane so who knows how long this could sustain for in the N Gulf. 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there. 

 

You live through something like that once then believe me, you never want to again. NYC area after Sandy was mostly pure hell for a month after especially where the surge hit. My town had no drinkable water for 10 days and no power for a month along with the huge surge damage. And Fiona was worse for these people.

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Morning survey. Strongest winds are here now. 
 

 

Wonder how much that sting Jet remains but I’m sure that means business. Sable Island gusted to 120mph on that jet? 

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I doubt this still has an eyewall.  

Yep that's not an eyewall anymore, it's more like a frontal boundary now.

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Josh just tweeted:

11:30 pm. Odd storm. Radar says the heavy rain has passed. I don't think even gusts reached gale force in Sydney. Rain has now slackened to drizzle. Perhaps we'll get strong winds on dry side of storm, as can happen with these (apparently) post-tropical cyclones. #FIONA

I'd bet where those small cells come onto land, that very strong winds are happening there. During Sandy those were where the really strong (80-90mph gusts) mixed down. And the sting jet behind the center would be another spot. 

Where those “cells” are popping up to the right of the center will likely have the strongest winds. 

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true.  In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County.  Both were Cat 1’s.  Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa.  If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region.  Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category.  The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning.  You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself.  In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby. 

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I don't think I have ever head of a storm declared post tropical with cat 3 winds.

But I mean-it is post tropical. It doesn’t have a symmetric warm core CDO anymore for sure, and you can see for the last few hours the cold air stratocumulus wrapping into the storm. There’s also the classic baroclinic leaf growing out NW of the storm. Takes nothing away from its destruction and I think Environment Canada will treat “post tropical hurricanes” differently after this storm. Thank goodness it’s not headed directly into Halifax or just west. 

3 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

It does look very Sandy-esque on satellite 

Same evolution as Sandy so pretty much the same result except a good bit worse because of the marine heatwave in the area and it being a month earlier. Judging by the radar a bit of west movement now? 

Sandy was 945mb at landfall, looks like those insane model runs in the 920s-930 will be right. Yikes. 

7 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Fiona's easterly component of motion is expected to stop in the next 2-3 hours per 12Z GFS as the phasing with the trough starts to pull it north.

Yep, once it happens it’ll be quick. 

On the satellite you can see the beginning of the tug back to the left in the direction of the high clouds. They seem to be backing to the left somewhat already. 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Still moving right of the track, but starting to turn more North. May be a case of the storm being stronger and resisting the pull of the trough?

When the interaction happens it can be yanked left pretty quick. I remember how much speculation there was that Sandy would end up over eastern LI because it kept trucking NE, but it turned left almost on a dime when the trough dove in. 

38 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z GFS.  There have been a lot of statements made that Fiona will be post tropical when it reaches Nova Scotia.  It appears that it will still have a relatively calm center at landfall.  Note that these numbers are KPH.

 

As it's transitioning it'll still have the calm center. The worst winds will likely happen a ways east of the center. It'll look something like a regular nor'easter when it comes ashore with all the steady rain west of the center but this obviously is incredibly worse. 

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For all the research I did, I've yet to come across a storm surge forecast here. That's pretty crazy considering that the eastern shore of Cape Breton is going to take the brunt of the surge. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong place, but the CHC site doesn't have anything and we know that the NHC is big on talking surge. 

After this storm they will, trust me. At the end of the day surge will be the biggest story from this. The fetch this will create is immense due to the expanding size and pre-existing intensity. Again thankfully it isn't a 100 mile or west track or that surge would be headed into Halifax and that would.... suck.

31 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Incredible. Lucky thing that's a fairly sparsely populated part of the world.

Hurricane Sandy, “Perfect Storm” like evolution but significantly worse. It’s a full month earlier, Fiona is a stronger storm and waters are way warmer than normal on its way up. If this can really be 930mb at landfall up there, wonder how much of Sable Island would even be left. Another question is where there may be surge gauges to catch how high it gets. In any place that can funnel in a surge it’ll be insane. I think the highest surges from Sandy were 12-13 feet in the sheltered bays like Raritan Bay and this will be worse. Miraculous is right that it’s not directly or right-siding any major population center.