jm1220

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even though sleet is obviously mixed in the pink, that would accumulate.

Pretty much a weenie GFS run overall.

I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement. 

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would be happy with the warmer Euro and GEM for our area since I am not a big fan of ice. 
 

 

I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere. 

I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Atlantic City-incredible. 3 significant winter storms for them this month. 

For the season I probably have about 25” in Huntington Station. 

The bickering is ridiculous, like hurts my eyeballs to look at ridiculous. 

Elmont 17.3”, I’m calling BS on that one. 

Orient 25”,’ wow, but they were sitting under that final band for hours. There are probably lots of 20-25” in the Hamptons and N Fork. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes the tiny flake size?  is that a function of temp (higher temps give you giant flake size as the flakes melt together and refreeze on each other) and you get sound effect snow in Long Beach?

 

Winds break dendrites apart which pile up the best. The 1/9 storm had perfect fluff dendrites because the wind wasn't a factor and there was a good band across the Island that had good lift. Outside of the bands today, lift must have sucked which doesn't help in production of good flakes. Where lift/condensation happens where it's -12 to -18C is where dendrites form. Outside of that you have needle/sand flakes which today might've had because it was too cold where flakes were forming, or lifting sucked.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

ah okay so Jan 2016 totals with higher than a 10:1 ratio can happen with higher winds if those other factors (flake size, etc.) are better?

Can't speak for Jan 2016 since I wasn't here but winds were lighter? More banding? I was in subsidence or outside of banding most of the day today and flakes here were crap-sand flakes despite temps in the teens. I guess what falls out of the cloud adds up in the end, the snow is pretty dense here but the lift in the bands probably produces better flakes than lousy lift in subsidence areas, and winds were light enough for them to make it to the ground? I only know what I saw, not the insanity ISP or Lindenhurst or Hamptons had.

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The wind absolutely killed ratios here.

And I guarantee next storm there will be 1000 Kuchera maps shown. Those should be banned. I warned countless times that those were BS. Even my 12-1 assumption was too weenie. There are places on the Island for sure where 20+ happened but it was due to dynamics and flake size within those bands, not the way Kuchera shows (I think it's assuming a ratio based on the highest temp 700mb to the ground). For hours this AM and afternoon it was probably moderate intensity in Long Beach but we had crap tiny flakes. The last sound enhanced snow burst may have been another inch just because we had dendrites again and wind died down. 

Avoid Kuchera maps in a nor'easter. 

16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

For NYC the daily amount of 7.3" has been confirmed but keep in mind that 1.2" also fell just before midnight on Friday 28th so the storm total is 8.5" -- whether that's accurate or not, it is a new daily record replacing 4.7" (1904) for the 29th, and that was the lowest value for any January record snowfall so that gap is filled. 

The other locations all had similar small amounts from Friday to add to the Saturday amounts, these are what I see on the climate reports just updated for the Friday-Saturday totals: 

JFK ___ 1.6 + 9.3 = 10.9"

LGA ___ 1.3 + 8.1 = 9.4"

ISP ____ 1.2 + 23.2 = 24.4"

BDR ___ 0.9 + 9.6 = 10.5"

EWR ___ 1.4 + 6.6 = 8.0"

JFK ended with 12.6". LGA 10.5", ISP 24.7", Central Park 8.3", Newark 7.7", BDR 10.5". 

NWSChat - NOAA's National Weather Service

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Double Jan 2018 and you have Jan 2016.  So see, you didn't actually miss all of Jan 2016, you got to experience half of it in Jan 2018.

If you look at it that way.....

 

I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted. 

42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Oh trust me, I love reading the Ne board.  Want you guys to cash in.

 

NYC and dc I always hope they fringe or dry slot

 

and that MLK storm was absurd…everyone up to the Canadian border had nixing issues.

NYC got fringed today relatively so you sorta got your wish lol. But if it went how it “should” have went maybe the death band would have gone west of the city. Boston and SE MA were good to go for days with this one other than the lol GFS. NYC is the toughest city in the Northeast to forecast for by far with almost any coastal winter storm because of how many ways it can go wrong but right with a 50 mile shift. El Niño juiced Miller As will always bury DC but may fringe NYC and could like 2/6/10 get confluence crushed south by 30 miles.  But Jan 2016’s El Niño monster is Central Park’s #1 because of a very late tick north (which I missed because I was living in TX at the time). Storms like today’s, 2/8/13, Juno 2015 NYC is on the SW end and can miss the action. But 1/4/18, Lindsey Storm 1969 and 12/30/00 it worked out amazingly. We don’t have a wheelhouse storm type like Boston or DC have. We pick and choose lol. 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's what I thought...TBH, I would have rather that, than missing 30" by 15mi, but I still would have complained.

It was me to a lesser extent today. Band started forming over me and that’s partly what buried Islip. I have 8” less than 10-15 miles NE of me. 

12-13” of snow where I am is not a fail by any means, and it looks like an all timer at Islip. Long Island had an awesome event. But have to wonder what would’ve been. The people who have to really complain are CT. Logan may have way jumped over Central Park because of the dumbbell!! (Who knows but something to think about) 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right about what?

He was honking that the trend on the crazy 0z NAM (6z NAM was even crazier) probably wasn’t done as the 500 low closed further SW. 12z NAM and others began the double barrel/dumbbell and so we have what happened. 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I explicitly said that I was scared to death of getting "Boxing Dayed", which dropped a foot of drifted baking soda on me. That is precisely what happened here.

I was never okay with that...in fact, I detested the potential so much, I made a verb out of that analog.

Good thing the dumbbell double low happened in the end for you guys. If it didn’t Forky would’ve been right. 

34 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Imagine the January 2018 blizzard with its 949 mb pressure made a loop south of montauk instead of speeding away just east of the benchmark? That would of been the blizzard to end all blizzards. I have to agree in regards to wind that January 2018 was stronger, I remember getting frequent gusts into the 50s with that one, this one was still obviously a blizzard out here in western suffolk but gusts were mostly in the 35-45 mph range besides a few isolated around 50. Snowfall rates 2018 wins too 3”/hr here then, today was 2”/hr at worst, but the duration of this event allowed it to still pull ahead in the final snowfall totals department

This was impressive but nothing like Jan 2018 in Long Beach. That was about 6 hours of complete awesomeness. About what I imagine it was like in Lindenhurst, Holbrook and Commack this morning lol. 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Huntington is all the way at the bottom of the Suffolk County list, I wonder how that's possible? They only got 10"?

So you got more snow at Long Beach than you would've gotten in Huntington?

 

Pretty sure there was more than 10” there. I’m not there now so can’t say but it should be evident tomorrow when I drive back. And I’ll have to make a detour through second jackpot zone in Lindenhurst/Babylon on the way lol. 

1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said:

Everyone I-95 east just got slammed , whether its 8 inches or 20....sheesh who cares what central park recorded.... We got our snowstorm

Absolutely. Regardless of how it evolved this was an awesome event. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

How much less than Boxing Day for you in this storm?

 

I had 20” from that one so at least a half foot less. 

8 minutes ago, jamesny said:

I’m in Levittown and measured anywhere between 15”-18” where I was able to avoid the big drifts. The 19.2” sounds kinda high still, but don’t think it was too far from reality. We had some legit bands all night and morning.

 

My parents out in Dix Hills measured less around 14”, which kinda surprises me.

 

 

A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of outside of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

and we all thought that was just a figment of the models' imaginations and fantasies lol.  Because usually it doesn't happen but this time it did work out....and screwed the city.  I can't complain because I got over a foot of snow, but Manhattan and NW did get shafted somewhat.

 

 

This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. 

So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so theoretically at least Manhattan could've gotten 20 inches of snow even without Atlantic blocking, they just needed the two low solution / chasing the convection not to happen?

 

I mean I don’t know for sure but I suspect it and models showed it. They had the big QPF max just east of NJ and before it could come into NYC the convective eastern low forced the Fujiwara movement. We had the insane NAM and UKMET runs with the one consolidated low that went away fast as the far eastern low took over. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You came up with a good idea for nuking convection.  How much liquid nitro would we have to dump into the ocean to get rid of the convection lol.

Hell, go with liquid helium it's even colder.

 

The radar off of DE/S NJ last night looked amazing. The coastal storm did get its act together but then it dumbbelled with the offshore low which shafted NYC up to most of CT. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it kills me that the center part of the Jersey shore got 20" and that snow somehow took an abrupt turn NE instead of coming due North

 

Apparently the storm had to chase some convection. Who figured.  
 

NYC would have the 15-20” as well if the storm developed the way it should have.