jm1220

Just now, EasternLI said:

12z Eps in motion. Some of these are big hits I'm sure.

I think it likes this mesolow/convective low idea and it’s struggling where to put the main low. If it consolidates on those western lows earlier we’re in a better place. 

19 minutes ago, MANDA said:

This would be a very welcome and appreciated snow event for this forum if expectations were not set so high early in the week with some of the very intense and epic solutions the Euro and EPS were showing and at times CMC and GFS back 5-7 days out.  Given the winter so far if this forum gets something close to the 12Z Euro take it and run!

I said all along with this keep expectations in check but there’s big upside potential. Non weenies here said the same. I’ll gladly take the about 10” it gives me and run. But there’s always a sense of missing out watching Boston get twice if not more so hopefully the minor changes happen to share more wealth.

If I was well NW I wouldn’t have gotten sucked in. There were only a couple really nuts Euro runs that brought heavy snow that far. Besides that it’s an evolution that isn’t favorable there. 

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

FWIW but that’s monster members south of LI.  LOL at the one just south of Coney Island.

That would give a new meaning to the Coney Island Cyclone. 

If you compare this 12z to 0z last night (not 6z) it's overall a little better. So it improved its way even beyond 0z after the lousy 6z. It'll be interesting to see EPS as well and how many tucked in monsters we have.

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

 

Thanks.  I guess my question was more about the surface depiction and how it doesnt match what you would expect based on the h5.  That's all due to chasing to the east?  

Possibly. Models today seem to be developing a meso low/convective-based low over the Gulf Stream as the coastal low gets going. The upper air dynamics eventually capture it all and consolidate it but it happens verbatim a little too late for us except for far eastern areas. And yes it can happen. It happened with our storm earlier this month but over time the coastal low became better defined and hopefully this one does too. 

Just now, Jt17 said:

Anybody have EPS pics?

They don’t come out until 2pm. 

I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here. 

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

 

Are the H5s just depicted poorly?  

It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates. 

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

FORKY we are sooooo close!

Yes verrrrry close where you and I are. Would take tiny changes aloft and at the surface to add 10” to our totals. And yes oftentimes banding makes it west of modeled in these storms. If that low consolidated west on the Euro just a few hours sooner…. Wow. 

Still a little sloppy as it comes by our latitude and doesn’t really consolidate. But holy Toledo for eastern New England when it finally does. 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Flow into our area definitely improved, backed in from SSE. Have to think that results in an improvement here not just New England. 

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse. 

Sometimes models overadjust when they sense a change from new data. The southern stream DC to ACY snow event this winter overadjusted on models when they saw suddenly it would be much further north. We were supposed to get 3-5" on some models in NYC but it ended up tons of virga.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. 

Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. 

Sure we have. I remember expecting a minor to moderate event on 1/3/18 because the system was riding too far east. Last minute west trend for the next day got me up to 14-15". 1/272015 had the epic Euro vs world battle until the end. Even before 1/25/16 the snow was supposed to stay south of Philly mostly and then blasted north at the very end. These are much different systems but there's often tons of volatility with these to the end. 

That said, the trend toward broadening the trough and delaying the consolidation of the different lows/features isn't what we want. We still have time for it to reverse enough to make a difference at least near the city. Hopefully it hits the Atlantic rocket fuel and takes off right away.

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

is there a snow map for that..thanks, or what does it show for NJ

If you insist.  

Just now, Big Jims Videos said:

I don't know if any model can nail this down until we start to follow radar trends.  Someone can be in for a wicked heartache - both along the shore where we are expecting double digits and the northwest fringe zone where flurries or 3-4 inches could be a matter of 10 miles.  I've been on sides of that equation.  They hurt equally bad.  The ceiling is still incredibly high for a bust in our favor as well - but when you're talking literally 30-50 mile difference we've all been burned in the past - 2015. 

Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these. 

UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd. 

GGEM looks a lot like the RGEM, went east a bit. Warning level snow makes it about 30mi NW of the city. LI has 10-12" using 10-1 maps. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

A Hecs / Mecs  is off the table but a nice secs is still on. What's wrong with that ?

MECS for NYC isn't off the table. And HECS/MECS depends on where you're talking about. For E Suffolk and up to Boston it's more likely than not. 

Take the bickering and arguing elsewhere. 

GFS will get there eventually. What it prints verbatim I wouldn't worry about.

1 minute ago, Juturna said:

So under the assumption that this does occur...is there any sort of consensus on a start time for the metro/LI area? Seems like it is coming in quicker and leaving quicker than it appeared early in the week. 

I'd say by tomorrow night 10-11pm. That's when some light snow looks to be spreading into the area. Snow is heavy late overnight into the afternoon.  

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

talking and guessing ratios are nearly impossible.  so much needs to go right.. Dynamics, Snow rate, etc

It's about being stuck in a lucky band too. If you're in an area of crappy lift, expect crappy ratios. That's before the wind gets to breaking the flakes apart. 

Not to say it won't be above 10-1 in some places near the coast but the Kuchera 15-1 ratios or whatever won't happen. Maybe well inland where winds are less, but the good banding probably won't make it there to help with lift. 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Models still showing a pretty sharp cutoff just NW of NYC but historically it's rare for a storm to drill NYC and significant snow not to make it to at least I287 as there is usually a band on the NW edge of the good stuff. 

1/4/18 might be a decent analog for this-where the cutoff sets up, not the storm evolution. The "hope" line for me is I-287/87 to I-84 on east. NW of there I think is done for more than a few inches. I definitely do buy the sharp cutoff idea and we'll be riding where the western fronto band can make it. 

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS I think has to give in a bit at 12z? Doesn't it? I'm not expecting a big storm anymore but pretty much every other model agrees now it won't be a total non event. 

It might, might not. I'm not too concerned about it. 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM is a very good model, so it's big that we have it on our side. I'm feeling good about this event.

This winter not really but it’s better to have it than not at this point. It’s also hopefully a precursor to a really good GGEM run.