jm1220

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

the worst part is that its in the 80s north and west of us!

Gotta love the perma-Nina. 

This is always good to improve the mood on a day like today.  Although I missed it by living in Austin, TX at the time.  

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sunday looks like low clouds and drizzle near the coast with a sunny day just to our NW.

 

 

Woo-freaking-hoo.  

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Would have been such a nice profile for a HECS if this was February lol

Long duration, high winds and heavy snow.  24-30 inches easily.  Maybe a PD2 type storm?

 

Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations.  

This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period. 

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but at least the rain will end by Sunday morning so no more of that 5 days of rain nonsense some were talking about

 

If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds. 

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, so a higher chance of 100 in Seattle than in NYC again this summer lol?

 

Maybe not Seattle but probably somewhere north of our latitude. We're becoming much more Carolina like in the summers due to the distorted north ridge. Temps there are regularly in the mid 90s with oppressive humidity. Near the center of the ridge where westerly flow can be sustained is where the over 100 heat would be. 

48 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this storm will be  a bust for the city rain totals will be less that was predicted during the 6 pm news

Still have quite a ways to go with this, at least 12 more hours. HRRR still has the rain going and mod-heavy at that around noon-1pm. Rain totals over the city appear to be 0.7" or so, with the rain expected most of us from I-80 S should be over 2" by the end. 

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lucky us. Nothing like a jackpot in early May

Yup. Like you said I guess it saves on the water bill. You can see the rain get squashed down every time it tries to push N into CT. This is some tough confluence. It’s been a nice day north of I-90 and quite low dew point air. 

Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro tropical models are particularly wet along the coast which is concerning and matches the high dew type heat we'll experience.

The displaced north subtropical ridge also puts us at higher risk for tropical systems. A further south ridge allows them to recurve earlier. The ridge pointed north prevents that and causes more Henri/Isaias type tracks. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.

 

Might be like a wave crashing in from the NW. It'll definitely be enjoyable when it finally does get here. 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record.

 

First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1981	05-21 (1981)	76	09-27 (1981)	79	128
1984	05-19 (1984)	76	10-28 (1984)	80	161
1975	05-14 (1975)	75	11-04 (1975)	75	173
1988	05-13 (1988)	75	10-02 (1988)	79	141
1971	05-11 (1971)	80	11-02 (1971)	76	174
1940	05-07 (1940)	79	10-15 (1940)	77	160

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6	Missing Count
1	1940-05-06	71	1
2	1984-05-06	73	0
-	1975-05-06	73	0
-	1971-05-06	73	0
3	2022-05-06	74	1
-	1988-05-06	74	0
-	1981-05-06	74	0

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 

Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby. 

Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery. 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

huh every forecast I looked has nothing but sunshine after that storm leaves on Saturday

 

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon. 

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The over top ridging is insane on the gfs. I've never seen anything like it. 

Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support. 

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty.

Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. 

And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash.

13 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts.  

Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. 

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have to say I'm loving this weather, as long as there is lots of sun I dont care what the temperatures are.  One other very positive thing, I dont know what that big storm did, but ever since then my allergies have completely vanished!  As in completely gonzo!  I haven't even thought about them in a week!

 

The storm probably washed away the pollen/allergens. Agree, hopefully that continues at least. 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cooler blocking pattern continuing into May on the EPS.

Apr25- May 2

May 2-May 9

 

Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then. 

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather-wise it doesn't look too bad though. Mostly 60s for highs with a couple 70+ days and pretty dry. 

Probably not far from normal overall when averaged over next 2 weeks 

For NJ it might not be too bad. East of the city these back door patterns are often raw and full of stratus. Hopefully not. And hopefully it can be short lived and the blocking is over done. 

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Drove through some pretty serious flooding this morning on the cross island. The throgs neck ramp was closed. I also have some flooding on campus due to clogged drains (flower peddles) flood events are a dime a dozen now. I really need to upgrade our drainage systems. 
meanwhile upstate in to Vermont are getting crushed with snow. Looks like a Vermont trip is in the cards for this weekend.

Looks like 2” for LGA and Central Park. Some of the short range models were showing a 2” area there and there was a local heavy rain band that parked overhead. Winds also gusted >50 over LI. 

12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well it's now shifting back.

It still amazes me how it can snow near the ocean with how mild the waters are.

State College may have 30" for the season with this storm. Don't know how much they have yet from today but that's very lousy once again. The inland runners that do happen like today blow up too late now for central PA. 3/14/17 was good in central PA but was best in the Poconos and upstate NY. Once again with my 31.5" here I win. Could've been significantly better if we had the blocking coming up in Feb instead.

NE PA/Southern Tier of NY will get crushed later by that developing CCB. That’s good lord type intensity headed there, and at night so it’ll pile up. There’ll likely be a swath of 10-12” up there.