jm1220

29 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

It's kinda amazing to me that we have a pretty negative -ao/nao and still can't get cold lol. It shows you the importance of the pacific to be somewhat favorable. Not sure if a split would do us good with the above diagram you posted. This is my two cents. I believe we need to focus on the mjo and where the main convection is and what needs to happen to get it into the western hemisphere. If it stays in the eastern hemisphere, most likely we will be chasing unicorns all winter. Something to think about. 

The weather in our part of the globe moves from west to east, so ultimately the Pacific drives the outcomes. There are ways the Atlantic can mess things up with a big +NAO or force the pattern to slow down and amplify to give us our bigger snow events, but if we’re drowning in Pacific puke in the never ending assembly line, it doesn’t turn out well. 

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

AN Nov and Dec with BN Dec snow during La Nina usually leads to a garbage winter, correct?

I’d much rather go into the rest of the winter in a Nina with a decent Dec snowstorm under our belt. Wouldn’t quite say “break out the shorts and flip flops” if we don’t but the odds go way down if it doesn’t happen. Nina’s generally become more hostile the further into winter we go. But supposedly this Nina is on its last legs finally and we have various competing influences so who knows. 

NYC: 23”

EWR: 26”

MMU: 37”

ISP: 28”

SWF: 44”

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nah, I get it. This sucks. The surge of AGW the past 20 years has turned our winters into a literal slot machine that either only eats your money or hits the jackpot with little middle ground, with the rare exception of a few winters with multiple jackpots. It feels very all or nothing anymore, and that was true for me before I signed up here. 
 

The thing that’s most frustrating, and of course this could just be bias, it always seems like when the models show favorability it doesn’t materalize, but when they show an unfavorable set up - lock it in and cash the check. It’s very frustrating. 

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change. 

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2nd window.

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage. 

Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind. 

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

To everyone worried about thermals, I wouldn’t worry about it as long as the low location is good and the low is really strong. The low can create its own cold air, I’ve had people tell me this doesn’t happen but I’ve seen storms where it works out. March 7th 2018 was heavy rain for several hours where I live, but the low bombed out and dynamically cooled the column. The initial airmass sucked, but due to the low creating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling I ended up getting around 8 inches of snow, with areas NW getting nearly 2 feet. That is what we will be relying on for the first threat. It’s low probability it will strengthen enough to create enough cold air to give significant snow, but I wouldn’t rule it out. The second and third threats have a better shot.

I have no idea how this blocking/storm situation will shake out and hopefully everyone enjoys something out of it, but early/mid Dec is way different from early March WRT marine influence near the coast. Water temp down here is still at 50 and Boston Harbor is at 47. March can be 8-10 degrees colder. It's very difficult to get a heavy all snow event near the coast this time of year and winds are onshore. Early March is way easier since the waters are still cold from the winter. If you can get even 10-15 miles of land to cool down the onshore flow it can make all the difference. Even here on LI from the LI Sound there can be a crazy microclimate where immediately on the LI Sound beaches there is a rain/snow mix or nonaccumulating snow but 2-3 miles inland heavy accumulating snow this time of year when there's a NE or ENE wind. There are numerous early Dec storms where near the NJ shore there is little accumulation and the temps there are stuck in the upper 30s/40s but not far inland west of the coastal front, way higher accums. But if winds can stay offshore and heavy snow, different story.

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat.

 

29" in Huntington where I live now and the death band was 30 miles east. 

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet. 

12/26/10 was an amazing event in Long Beach. All out blizzard conditions most of that night. We probably ended with around 18”. We were in heavy snow for most of it but the best banding was to the west. 

The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen. 

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5. 

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

 

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+). 

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band off Ontario is beautiful. 3 lake connection. Most likely 3-5” rates in that thing. 

It can’t not be Oswego’s turn eventually. 

But my hometown Long Beach NY can be awesome too in the rare times when it comes together like Boxing Day 12/26/10. That was ferocious. But it's way rarer than further east on LI or in MA. Any big snow Nor'easter is on a knife's edge for NYC area.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I follow all your guys nor'easters like a hawk. Always wanted to chase one right on the water to get the maximum winds.

Scituate, MA 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wish I could storm chase full time. A lifelong dream of mine. Maybe one day.

The place to chase for anything incredible Nor'easter for snow is Worcester. It somehow works out for them every time. Boston a close second. Boston is never in the "death band" but ends up with 2' plus anyway. Third after Boston is Islip Airport here on LI. Somehow that area gets in on any good one that hits LI. Plenty of hotels! 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nemo right? I watched that thing all day. Absolute unreal band across Connecticut.

Yes, there really were 6"/hr amounts from CT to central LI. 30-40" amounts in that swath where the band sat for a few hours, and pretty sure CT's all time highest storm total. Where I was closer to NYC (by 30 miles west), initial heavy precip was sleet/rain and that death band came together too late. There was 12-13" by the end for me when the snow finally took over and there was a good amount of mod/heavy snow west of that band from the upper low combining into that monster, 30"+ about 30 miles east of me. 

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Some studies pegged the 50-60 dBz death band of Feb 2013 as high as 8-9 in/hr. While this has not been conclusively proven, I can tell you that responding in that was... Nuts. 

Don't get me started about that storm and dragging the thread off topic. Rain/sleet on the south shore wasted 10" at least from that storm and... 

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Actually, I think that record goes to Copenhagen, NY; 2 Dec 1966: 12 inches in one hour. 

Three times I've maybe seen 4"/hr in person are 12/30/00 (the one real thundersnow event I've been in) and 1/26/11 in Long Beach, and I think 4/2/07 in State College PA in the very tail end of a lake effect band. And those were insane. I can't imagine higher than that. The Sierra Nevadas I'm sure see some ridiculous snow rates and obviously in this event for Buffalo (and Watertown off Ontario). Was amazing to follow through on all the videos. 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Was a ton of work, My roof is very tall and steep, not much I can do unless I get a roof rake.

Enjoy the deep snow cover until April and get some sleep haha. 

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That burst didn't last long at all. Picked up 3.6". Should be about it for this storm.

Awesome finale. Thanks for all the videos/photos etc for us to follow along with. Insanely impressive that you got your driveway shoveled/snowblown out lol. I'm gassed after one of our relatively lame 12 to 18"-ers down here. Do you have to clear your roof next?

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

23. Jesus. Hello winter 

One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour).