jm1220

45 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Looks like we'll be stuck in a disgusting pattern for several weeks.  

It’s like clockwork the last few springs. 

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Next week looks like our next big temperature swing. Brief Arctic shot from the 27th to the 29th with lows in the 20s. Then the month ends warm in the 70s. 
 

 

Lots of plants/flowers blooming from the early warmth, may be in trouble. 

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Insane Antarctic warmth and nobody will notice because 0-10F is still perceived to be cold. 

Only when we get ridiculous heat in the states does anyone care. And for people to really notice we'd need a Pac NW style heat dome over the northeast.

We seem to be entering a long term summer trend here in the Northeast that favors higher humidity over higher heat, at least extreme heat. The ridge over the summer is becoming steeper and centered further north over the last few summers, which results in the strongest heat overshooting this area to hit southern Canada and Maine. We have more of a southerly onshore flow that brings humidity in, not the westerly flow that drives temps up. Bluewave will have better stats but there has been a marked increase in 75 or higher dewpoint days over the last 5 summers or so. We’re becoming much more Florida like here. The downside to that has been the warming oceans that make us more susceptible to tropical systems and the tendency to have them steered toward us on the southerly flow rather than out to sea like usual. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The polar vortex crossing the area from Sunday into Monday may be our best shot at some snow squalls. 
 

 

 

Wow, that's gonna be a kick in the teeth regardless of any snow.

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

March 21-22 2018 the city got 8-12” and April 2018 the city got about 6”

Long Beach again immediately on the shore got almost a foot of cement from that. Where I live now (granted a good bit more favored for late season snow) had 18".

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Again……NYC proper, AFTER the EQUINOX (3/20), in the 22 years since 2000, go back and look for yourself

Can’t speak to Central Park but in April 2003 and April 2018 right on the south shore where I lived at the time there was 6” each. It’s rare but doable. 

Pretty intense tornado outbreak yesterday in the Austin TX area. Not quite around where I used to live on the SW side of town, but some heavily populated areas north of town (Round Rock which wasn’t tornado warned apparently as it went across I-35) and east (Elgin). Downtown dodged a bullet thankfully, it looked hairy for a while. The Jarrell 1997 outbreak was the last really destructive one around Austin. Several other intense tornadoes hit the area besides the huge Jarrell one, which would’ve been catastrophic had it hit 30 miles south of Jarrell. That’s the first outlying town in the northern suburban Austin county (Williamson County). 

Seems to be like clockwork that we have this garbage big -NAO in late March now that’s only good for locking in raw easterly winds or useless cold. 

70 here. Long Beach 52, Captree 48.  
 

Today’s definitely a reason I moved here from the south shore. 

52 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Thankfully I sit on LI’s equator. Temp up to 60 here now. I hope that mess stays relegated to the immediate south shore.

Gorgeous up here today, temp 64. Yep, glad I’m not on the south shore. Many more days like that to come unfortunately as the water temps creep back up. 

67 degrees. Can definitely get used to this. 45 though at Captree  

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cold shot

At this point I don't want it. Bring on the torch. 

Coating here. 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes nice for Long Beach to come out ahead for once

 

Borderline heavy now! 

Moderate wind whipped snow in Long Beach. Sticking to all surfaces. Nice finale. 

1 minute ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

I think our accumulations come later on..setting sun,dropping temps,snow squalls. Also the backend is still in pa..all that will swing thru,maybe with some enhancement as the upper level low comes by.

All that in central PA will dry up as it comes over the mountains and downslopes. Maybe there can be a coating with some snow squalls later under the trough. But overall a lame event. Finally seeing some snow flurries here. 

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Cannot believe the storm is over by noon. Wow. Just some sleet here in Suffolk 

These precip vs cold air race events almost never work out for the coast. We need the upper level lows to be better defined so the precip can be thrown back into the cold air. Otherwise as Snowgoose called to a T, we just dry out on the NW wind. Rain’s about done and the sky is brightening up already. 

13 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Euro taking a beating on this one. Way too high for the coast, way too low for the Berks.

Euro’s frequently too cold in these coastal events. 

Rain/some sleet. Looks like the meh/warm models were right. Congrats to those NW of the city who finally got a decent event. 

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race. 

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's borderline crazy. Also we're talking about 1-3/2-4" that will be gone in a day or so.

Anyone that crazy about snowfall or in his case hoping it flops needs to check into a psyche ward. 

Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night. 

How has the HREF been this season? It was somewhat too aggressive with the last slip/snow event this week. Is there a 12z HREF out yet? 

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are underestimating this even near the coast. Flash freezes will happen.

That I do think will happen-tons of black ice on the roads Sat night. But the accumulating snow could go either way. As others mentioned an hour or two difference in the changeover time will mean a lot. NW of the city should have a decent period of snow. If it can snow hard in the city for a while it should stick since temps will be dropping below freezing. 

14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Any thoughts on how this compares to Christmas Day 2002?  Up until that storm I had never seen any real 'wraparound snow' follow heavy rain, but that one was pretty awesome - about 6" of absolute paste.   Haven't seen anything remotely close to that storm since then either.

This will be much different. The upper low structure for the 2002 storm was much better for us. The 500mb low closed off in time for heavy snow to linger west of the low as the cold air crashed in. This is much more progressive and the precip won’t be pivoting back west as it leaves. It’s a classic precip vs cold air race this time, and the flow will de drying us out in general from the NW when the cold air gets here. 

Hi-res models are pretty snowy for NYC and even western LI, shows 2-3" in general. 

I'm pessimistic about these "wait for the cold air to come in" storms for snow in NYC and we'll have to deal with dry NW winds but I guess we'll see what happens. Anything of note I'd expect to happen NW of the city.