jm1220

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

2 of the greats (Forky/Euro) go down in the same storm 

I just moved to Texas before that one hit/didn’t hit so I was kinda bummed but nothing like the agony of watching 1/23/16 end up an all timer from there. Long Beach had 14-15” from Juno but probably 30” from Jonas. 

Dense pea soup this morning. Worst fog I’ve seen in quite a while. 

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

After a high of 68 degrees, already down to 52.

Down to 45. Quick drop on clear dry days like these. 

On 10/31/2022 at 4:08 PM, binbisso said:

Yup. Unless there is a blend of guidance these stats are pretty useless.

Cfs looks good for December. Eps heading in that direction. Not holding my breath but hopefully we can get a decent December this year. We are due

If we can pull off that ridge over the Bering Strait it would be great. That would be a very cold trough with that cross polar flow. How Nina winters do here is strongly correlated to how steep the Aleutian ridge is. Steeper is way better. Flat ridge means we’re flooded in Pacific air. 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Return to the 70s for next weekend as we see a record 588 dm SE Ridge for early November emerge. Plenty of SSE onshore flow so coastal sections will be cooler. Newark would probably need more SW flow than the models currently show to have a shot at 80°.

 

Put the palm trees back out and shorts back on!! 

Hopefully we cool down in the second half of November and have at least one decent Dec snow event because as Don mentioned we’re likely doomed for winter if that doesn’t happen especially in a Nina which is typically front loaded. 

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

What a monster Sandy was. 10 years ago today. Probably one of the most powerful storms that most of us experienced. I wasn't in an area that flooded, that alone was crazy enough, but the winds were nothing like I've ever seen. The sustained winds of 40-60+mph were just insane. It's not like a gust of 40-60mph which is strong, it was sustained at those speeds. Seeing the trees bend like never before and lucky that some didn't snap. The gusts were insane, many gusts were 70-90mph. I remember looking at the clouds race across the sky from east to west faster than I've ever seen. I kinda wish I could go back in time just to relive the event.

The transformers blowing up all night were like the Fourth of July. Long Beach where I lived at the time was obviously devastated beyond anything anyone’s ever seen there. My parents’ home was unlivable for about 3 months after being trashed (and they were lucky compared to others on our street). Plenty of wind damage too, part of a roof on a building on National Blvd blew away. Feet of sand pushed into the city, explosions/fires etc. So yeah, that was my #1 worst storm. 

Annoying how NOAA essentially takes the standard La Niña winter anomalies and releases that as their outlook again. Anyone should see the last few winters how much more’s going on than just ENSO. 

2 hours ago, AChilders said:

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

Hopefully many of the homes that weren’t outright devastated can be salvaged. Many homes that have mold or other interior damage or shifted off the foundation will have to be leveled unfortunately. And yes, until there’s a good way to clear the debris (and there will be way more than people can imagine) from these towns and the roads/bridges are back open, there won’t be much improvement. 

We lucked out in Nassau/W Suffolk in how the second offshore batch of rain came about due north vs more east. According to radar (which might be low) I had about 0.9”. Places east of me clearly had more. 

You can see the split screw happening for NYC and most of us-E Suffolk should get it pretty good. Oh well. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

65/36 split today

And back down to 45 now. It’ll be an early fall foliage season for us that’s for sure. 

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has another strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain as the summer dry pattern continues to relax. So more cooler fall temperatures behind that front. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA.

That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. 

Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 

38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Finished with 2.95" here.  Updated maps show six day event totals.  Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF.  High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure.  Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just  about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore.  It eventually made it way beyond.  I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb.  Tracks were text book classic.  Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland.  Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.

Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

Not a total drought buster for the south shore but finally a good soaking. And even better since it rained slowly vs all at once. Desperately needed. Hopefully there can be some more. 

Up where I am now we maybe have 0.5” total (where rain isn’t needed), the south shore probably has 1-1.5” where it’s desperately needed. Rain finally starting to overcome the dry air here. Hopefully the wetter models are right. 

Good for NJ but pretty lame how the rain just disintegrates as it comes near LI. Hopefully that can change at least a little as the new coastal low gets going. 

Probably 1” in Long Beach on the extreme south shore so far, less further north where today’s rain has been lighter. Decent event. Hopefully Wed’s storm delivers as well. 

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Gfs, cmc and rgem  With an additional inch plus through Tuesday. Nam is dry

Hopefully but as today proves, don’t count any rain this year until it’s in the bucket. 

Sun is out here in Long Beach. 

Another big mehh. The rain split is real obviously, and another general screw job. Hopefully by the end we get to 1" but from here on looks like scattered showers and a blustery/raw day. Just what I was worried about. Any rain is good for the south shore but the drought lives on.

11 minutes ago, jacindc said:

There's also the matter of how much expense the building codes add to the cost of a home, which is clearly an issue when you see how many people of fewer means are living in those developments that are just row upon row of manufactured houses. The fact that more homes on Sanibel withstood the surge (or at least their frames did) is as much a statement about the financial status of the owners as anything. The working class residents in SW FL are going to be the ones who really end up losing, because you can be sure that affordable little cottages and new manufactured home developments won't be high up on the rebuild priority.

 

Yup, unfortunately it’ll be a haves/have not situation for those people. It’ll be interesting to see how the insurance industry there handles the avalanche of claims coming in when it’s already been in deep doo doo for some time. The lifeline for the less well off will be FEMA and what grants they can get in order to take care of the essentials and finding a suitable place to live in the meantime. FEMA I’m sure will have to set up camps to house people. But there’s no way Sanibel/Fort Myers can rebuild the way it was before and still be insured. The houses will have to be on stilts or the bottom 10 feet be a concrete garage, above that be any living area. Building codes for wind do bupkis for surge, and it’s only a matter of time before it happens again. Pretty much all of the homes that look OK from the outside there have enormous water damage and have to be gutted if not demolished. 

I don’t count any rain until it’s in the bucket this year. A split like that with the main precip offshore wouldn’t shock me at all. I’m in Long Beach now and anything not regularly irrigated is dead. Horrible to see. 

Winds are from the E at Myrtle Beach so the center must be close by. Maybe in between Georgetown and there? 

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said, just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

 

 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

That’s a break for Georgetown then. Their high tide was at 1pm. 

Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding.

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise. 

In Long Beach we have hundreds or more homes now that are garages on the first floor and the living area on the 2nd/3rd. The bottom garage floor is mostly concrete. Either that or the home will have to be on stilts, which isn't "pleasing" but either that or it'll be uninsurable. Optimally these barrier islands just wouldn't be rebuilt but we're talking about FL here.