jm1220

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.

Yep. The LLJ is also pushing north which means once the rain stops the winds should subside for a while. The parent low will die off and the one offshore will take over, meaning the rain will pivot back south and winds increase as it pinwheels. If this was winter, this front end batch would be a driving rain for most of us or snow to rain because of that tucked in low reflection near JFK. The precip pivoting back south would be snow due to the offshore low taking over. 

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New NAM crushes LI and SW CT With another 3-5 inches of rain

Yep there's going to be a pivot point somewhere over LI/S CT where the heavy rain will sit and eventually come back south. That's the area that will really get drenched with the 4-5"+ amounts. 

HRRR would be a nightmare anywhere near the coast. Has big rain amounts too, 3-5" areawide. Lots of tree damage if that materializes.

I will say it's probably a good winter sign that we're getting a noreaster like this early. Usually predicts more like them later (Oct 2011 don't remind me so who knows lol).

Annihi-fricking-lation down here. Drenching for 24 hours plus 60mph winds on top. And hate to say it but tucked in is usually the right answer. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I don’t even remember last winter lol

The 15” storm we got on 2/1? I definitely remember that lol. 

44 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom

To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. 

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Isn't this every winter with that call ? I can see it happen in the 2nd half. 

It’s pretty much climo for a Nina winter which is what they put up last winter. I put little/no stock in it since there are many other factors at play besides the weak to mod Nina expected. I guess it doesn’t predict snow for any place in particular. Last winter was warmer than average but also snowier here however nationwide it didn’t turn out how the median Nina winter does. 

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October.

 

They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed. 

7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.  But even when Texas hurricane season is over, the tropics still influence the weather.

Torrential rain closing in on I-35 with Blanco County estimating 5” rain. It’s Flash Flood Alley in that area for a reason. I remember Patricia’s remnants in Oct 2015 causing the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in my life in Austin when I lived there. Parts of the city near the airport had I think close to 15” of rain. Not too long before the area had the insane May 2015 floods which devastated Wimberley, San Marcos and other towns on the Blanco River. This won’t be nearly as bad thankfully but Pacific tropical remnants can cause plenty of havoc along I-35. 

52 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. 

The bugs are loving it.

Bringing the south shore gunk up with me. 

26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills. 

51 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s behind the cold front near the coast later next week. Still has a piece of the WAR hanging on. So the coldest departures remain to our west with the blocking. 
 

 

 

Hopefully we’re finally taking steps down in the daily temps. Also hopefully the end of the humidity-early this week was putrid. 

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The increased blocking and milder winter temperatures have worked wonders for our snowfall since 2002-2003. 

 

Definitely shows the influence of the SE Ridge here too. Luckily for us we’re in the contrast zone between that and the colder Midwest temps, and can take advantage of later blooming Miller B’s. 

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Larry appears to be going through another EWRC. It looks like the inner eyewall, which isn't exactly small, is not convectively bursting as much and may be breaking down. The new eye may end up being quite large.

NHC broke out the A word. Annular?

24 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah spineless incompetent politicians always blame the forecasts for their failures.

De Blasio can’t be gone soon enough. Spineless is right and also a liar to claim that this was unforecasted and meteorologists dropped the ball. 

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some scenes from the aftermath of the flood in Mamaroneck. The air hangs thick with the smell of oil and gas. There are rancid odors of decaying material and rotting food in may parts of the flood-stricken area. If one looks at the last shot, one sees a chair caught high in the vegation with the muddy waters of the Sheldrake River down below in the right lower portion of the photo. The chair is approximately 15 feet above the river. The ice machine resting near a marked parking spot was swept nearly one-third of a mile to its resting place.

Many people have had their lives altered by this event. Businesses ranging from Bilotta (kitchen and cabinet store) to a gym that had to dispose of its treadmills were adversely impacted. Bilotta suffered a total loss of inventory (as occurred during the April 2007 flood), but this flood encompassed a larger area with the waters rising much more rapidly. Outside of Mamaroneck in Harrison, there was an ongoing search for a missing vehicle that was reportedly swept into the adjacent reservoir during the height of the storm.

Taking damage photos is among the worst aspects of storm photography. It is also part of the story. The human story behind the images is far more important than the actual images. That aspect should not be lost.

Wow. Reminds me of what my town looked like after Sandy.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Wow. Horrendous that most deaths from Ida will likely be in this area. Goes to show how water is by far the deadliest aspect of any storm. 

I wish there was a way we could capture all this water we keep getting here and ship it out west to where it’s needed and they’re dealing with one of their worst droughts on record. 

For how much rain we had last night, it feels absolutely awesome outside now, even chilly. 

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

This is freshwater flooding that while still tragic isn’t as bad as saltwater flooding for property/equipment/electronics. There wasn’t an 8+ foot surge that inundated every coastal area. The subways won’t be shut down for weeks in many cases. There are places that had catastrophic effects from this but calling it “another Sandy” or worse is hyperbole. 

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All this damage and this wasn't even a hurricane. I don't want to even imagine how much damage a strong hurricane would do up here. This ranks up with Sandy .

This isn’t as bad as Sandy but it does look catastrophic in some areas. The problem as always is flooding here. NYC is surrounded by water on 3 sides and we have so much underground infrastructure that floods in a situation like this. Tragically my thought that our death toll might end up higher than the South’s from Ida looks like will verify. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

9 dead now in NYC

Terrible. I wonder if there’s a listing yet of rain amounts areawide? Radar for me estimates about 6.5” total. 

Just now, tmagan said:

Fair statement

These Gulf storms often have a Part 2 in this region where they hit Atlantic moisture and dump again. Allison and Camille and now Ida.