jm1220

S Nassau getting rocked pretty good. Line is bowing out and looks like some 50mph gusts based on the velocity scans.

43 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 

Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 

24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Let’s start pumping water temps too

These strong southerly flow days will do that quick. There’ll likely be an Ambrose Jet with 30+ mph gusts with that kind of contrast and cool temps on the south shore. Like two different worlds vs. Newark. 

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tricky temperature forecast for Saturday. Euro is cooler with more clouds and a strong onshore flow. Has low 90s west of the NJ Turnpike. The GEM is much warmer with upper 90s for Central NJ. The Euro and GEM agree on much cooler highs from NYC to Long Island with a strong sea breezes in those areas. 
 

 

The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down. 

15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here.

If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. 

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Delightful evening out here. 1 min rain shower earlier 

I had two 1 min rain showers. I win.

Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. 

One thing for sure, temps are outperforming even with all the clouds and onshore flow. Mid to high 70s once again. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Heat is coming and storms as well. 

Monday looks interesting. 90s after the 20th. 

If we can keep winds from a westerly direction late week we should be off to the races. Probably mid 90s in the hotter areas given how hot the source region is. But we need the ridge to make a good push east or the threat of the back door front will be around. If the trough keeps getting stuck over the Maritimes you can never count on extended warmth this time of year. But two straight weeks pretty much of easterly winds have to come to an end. Right?  

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

the worst part is that its in the 80s north and west of us!

Gotta love the perma-Nina. 

This is always good to improve the mood on a day like today.  Although I missed it by living in Austin, TX at the time.  

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Sunday looks like low clouds and drizzle near the coast with a sunny day just to our NW.

 

 

Woo-freaking-hoo.  

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Would have been such a nice profile for a HECS if this was February lol

Long duration, high winds and heavy snow.  24-30 inches easily.  Maybe a PD2 type storm?

 

Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations.  

This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period. 

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but at least the rain will end by Sunday morning so no more of that 5 days of rain nonsense some were talking about

 

If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds. 

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, so a higher chance of 100 in Seattle than in NYC again this summer lol?

 

Maybe not Seattle but probably somewhere north of our latitude. We're becoming much more Carolina like in the summers due to the distorted north ridge. Temps there are regularly in the mid 90s with oppressive humidity. Near the center of the ridge where westerly flow can be sustained is where the over 100 heat would be. 

48 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

this storm will be  a bust for the city rain totals will be less that was predicted during the 6 pm news

Still have quite a ways to go with this, at least 12 more hours. HRRR still has the rain going and mod-heavy at that around noon-1pm. Rain totals over the city appear to be 0.7" or so, with the rain expected most of us from I-80 S should be over 2" by the end. 

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lucky us. Nothing like a jackpot in early May

Yup. Like you said I guess it saves on the water bill. You can see the rain get squashed down every time it tries to push N into CT. This is some tough confluence. It’s been a nice day north of I-90 and quite low dew point air. 

Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro tropical models are particularly wet along the coast which is concerning and matches the high dew type heat we'll experience.

The displaced north subtropical ridge also puts us at higher risk for tropical systems. A further south ridge allows them to recurve earlier. The ridge pointed north prevents that and causes more Henri/Isaias type tracks. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.

 

Might be like a wave crashing in from the NW. It'll definitely be enjoyable when it finally does get here. 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record.

 

First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1981	05-21 (1981)	76	09-27 (1981)	79	128
1984	05-19 (1984)	76	10-28 (1984)	80	161
1975	05-14 (1975)	75	11-04 (1975)	75	173
1988	05-13 (1988)	75	10-02 (1988)	79	141
1971	05-11 (1971)	80	11-02 (1971)	76	174
1940	05-07 (1940)	79	10-15 (1940)	77	160

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6	Missing Count
1	1940-05-06	71	1
2	1984-05-06	73	0
-	1975-05-06	73	0
-	1971-05-06	73	0
3	2022-05-06	74	1
-	1988-05-06	74	0
-	1981-05-06	74	0

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 

Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby. 

Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery. 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

huh every forecast I looked has nothing but sunshine after that storm leaves on Saturday

 

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon. 

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The over top ridging is insane on the gfs. I've never seen anything like it. 

Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support. 

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty.

Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. 

And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash.