jm1220

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lucky us. Nothing like a jackpot in early May

Yup. Like you said I guess it saves on the water bill. You can see the rain get squashed down every time it tries to push N into CT. This is some tough confluence. It’s been a nice day north of I-90 and quite low dew point air. 

Brick wall is in place. Not far north of here the dew points are around 30 and the confluence is pressing down. This would be a widespread 20” snowstorm like a 1/23/16 or PDII if it could’ve happened in February. Grrrrr 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Euro tropical models are particularly wet along the coast which is concerning and matches the high dew type heat we'll experience.

The displaced north subtropical ridge also puts us at higher risk for tropical systems. A further south ridge allows them to recurve earlier. The ridge pointed north prevents that and causes more Henri/Isaias type tracks. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.

 

Might be like a wave crashing in from the NW. It'll definitely be enjoyable when it finally does get here. 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been some of the strongest spring onshore flow influence that we have seen around here. Very sharp dividing line between west of Central Park and east. LGA still hasn’t had a 75° day yet. So it’s already the 5th latest. 74° is also the 3rd coldest high at LGA by May 6th on record.

 

First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1981	05-21 (1981)	76	09-27 (1981)	79	128
1984	05-19 (1984)	76	10-28 (1984)	80	161
1975	05-14 (1975)	75	11-04 (1975)	75	173
1988	05-13 (1988)	75	10-02 (1988)	79	141
1971	05-11 (1971)	80	11-02 (1971)	76	174
1940	05-07 (1940)	79	10-15 (1940)	77	160

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to May 6	Missing Count
1	1940-05-06	71	1
2	1984-05-06	73	0
-	1975-05-06	73	0
-	1971-05-06	73	0
3	2022-05-06	74	1
-	1988-05-06	74	0
-	1981-05-06	74	0

LGA has been really unlucky due to the NE breeze off the sound they sometimes get. It’s been above 75 IMBY several times now. 

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Models say welcome to summer by later next week. 

Just have to get through these next few days and then it's 80s and maybe even 90+ galore. 

Once this cutoff is finally gone and we can establish westerly flow, we’re probably off to the races into summer. However we still have to watch how much of a trough lingers over the Maritimes. If that stays, high pressure will build to our NE and promote more back door fronts nearby. 

Models bumping back south for the upcoming rain. I-84 corridor may be dry for the most part. Crazy that in early May we’re still dealing with strong confluence and dry air brick walls. This would be a 20” storm easy south of the brick wall if it was 2 months ago. Now it’s just wind driven cold misery. 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

huh every forecast I looked has nothing but sunshine after that storm leaves on Saturday

 

The cutoff is slowed down a lot on the latest guidance as Bluewave pointed out. It ruins at least into Sun and likely keeps clouds/cool maritime air into Mon. 

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The over top ridging is insane on the gfs. I've never seen anything like it. 

Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support. 

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty.

Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. 

And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash.

13 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts.  

Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. 

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have to say I'm loving this weather, as long as there is lots of sun I dont care what the temperatures are.  One other very positive thing, I dont know what that big storm did, but ever since then my allergies have completely vanished!  As in completely gonzo!  I haven't even thought about them in a week!

 

The storm probably washed away the pollen/allergens. Agree, hopefully that continues at least. 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cooler blocking pattern continuing into May on the EPS.

Apr25- May 2

May 2-May 9

 

Yeah that trough over the Maritimes needs to be gone. Pronto. We’re likely below average until then. 

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather-wise it doesn't look too bad though. Mostly 60s for highs with a couple 70+ days and pretty dry. 

Probably not far from normal overall when averaged over next 2 weeks 

For NJ it might not be too bad. East of the city these back door patterns are often raw and full of stratus. Hopefully not. And hopefully it can be short lived and the blocking is over done. 

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Drove through some pretty serious flooding this morning on the cross island. The throgs neck ramp was closed. I also have some flooding on campus due to clogged drains (flower peddles) flood events are a dime a dozen now. I really need to upgrade our drainage systems. 
meanwhile upstate in to Vermont are getting crushed with snow. Looks like a Vermont trip is in the cards for this weekend.

Looks like 2” for LGA and Central Park. Some of the short range models were showing a 2” area there and there was a local heavy rain band that parked overhead. Winds also gusted >50 over LI. 

12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight. 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well it's now shifting back.

It still amazes me how it can snow near the ocean with how mild the waters are.

State College may have 30" for the season with this storm. Don't know how much they have yet from today but that's very lousy once again. The inland runners that do happen like today blow up too late now for central PA. 3/14/17 was good in central PA but was best in the Poconos and upstate NY. Once again with my 31.5" here I win. Could've been significantly better if we had the blocking coming up in Feb instead.

NE PA/Southern Tier of NY will get crushed later by that developing CCB. That’s good lord type intensity headed there, and at night so it’ll pile up. There’ll likely be a swath of 10-12” up there. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Long Island has done better than State College with snowfall since 2009. Dramatic reversal from the late 70s to early 90s. Much better benchmark snowstorm tracks now.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.0	0.6	5.8	15.0	11.4	6.9	0.4	T	40.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	M	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	0.0	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	0.0	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	0.0	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	0.0	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	0.0	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	0.0	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	0.0	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	0.0	36.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.6	2.1	6.0	9.7	11.6	4.8	0.6	T	35.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.8	2.1	13.1	2.5	7.8	T	M	26.3
2020-2021	0.0	T	16.3	4.2	25.2	T	T	T	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	2.0	2.3	5.3	2.0	0.9	0.7	T	13.2
2018-2019	T	11.7	0.2	11.6	11.7	4.9	T	0.0	40.1
2017-2018	0.0	0.3	6.6	5.0	9.7	6.9	5.6	0.0	34.1
2016-2017	T	0.5	6.5	5.0	9.5	16.3	T	0.0	37.8
2015-2016	T	T	T	9.9	6.4	0.2	1.4	T	17.9
2014-2015	0.0	5.2	2.5	21.3	14.7	7.8	0.5	0.0	52.0
2013-2014	T	4.0	11.1	10.0	26.7	T	T	0.0	51.8
2012-2013	0.0	1.0	13.9	8.6	9.8	10.3	T	0.0	43.6
2011-2012	3.0	T	1.5	9.2	5.3	T	T	0.0	19.0
2010-2011	T	T	3.2	14.2	9.9	11.1	T	0.0	38.4
2009-2010	4.9	T	14.0	3.9	25.5	0.8	T	T	49.1
2008-2009	0.2	3.9	4.0	14.3	3.9	T	T	0.0	26.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	T	0.8	2.8	7.2	7.1	3.9	1.3	T	23.0
1978-1979	0.0	4.0	T	6.9	17.2	T	T	0.0	28.1
1979-1980	T	0.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	2.0	0.0	0.0	9.0
1980-1981	0.0	T	0.5	13.2	T	7.1	0.0	0.0	20.8
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	1.0	18.1	0.3	T	16.0	0.0	35.4
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.2	1.5	26.1	T	1.1	0.0	31.9
1983-1984	0.0	T	2.6	11.9	T	13.0	0.0	0.0	27.5
1984-1985	0.0	T	4.7	13.5	8.7	T	T	0.0	26.9
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.1	2.6	10.4	0.1	T	0.0	15.2
1986-1987	0.0	T	3.4	8.8	8.6	1.7	0.0	0.0	22.5
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	4.2	10.7	0.1	3.4	0.0	0.0	19.5
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	0.0	19.0
1989-1990	0.0	7.6	0.2	2.0	2.0	4.2	3.0	0.0	19.0
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	4.0	3.6	4.3	1.9	0.0	T	13.8
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.3	1.5	7.6	T	0.0	13.4
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.3	10.9	13.3	0.0	0.0	28.6
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.2	8.8	20.0	5.0	0.0	T	37.0

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	T	2.2	6.5	12.4	10.9	11.9	1.8	T	45.7
1978-1979	T	2.1	6.8	10.5	19.7	0.8	T	0.0	39.9
1979-1980	T	T	1.2	4.3	6.2	6.2	T	0.0	17.9
1980-1981	T	8.9	4.7	8.2	9.4	7.6	T	0.0	38.8
1981-1982	T	0.2	7.9	17.8	17.5	15.2	10.5	0.0	69.1
1982-1983	T	T	1.8	6.7	10.9	3.2	T	0.0	22.6
1983-1984	0.0	3.1	7.4	12.8	2.7	24.2	T	0.0	50.2
1984-1985	0.0	0.4	3.3	11.7	10.7	0.8	4.7	0.0	31.6
1985-1986	0.0	T	9.6	11.7	19.9	1.0	0.1	0.0	42.3
1986-1987	0.0	3.0	0.8	35.1	5.8	5.7	1.9	0.0	52.3
1987-1988	T	7.8	8.2	9.9	7.5	5.4	0.2	0.0	39.0
1988-1989	T	0.1	2.5	7.8	1.6	11.6	0.1	T	23.7
1989-1990	T	3.0	12.2	13.5	3.4	3.7	5.0	T	40.8
1990-1991	T	0.1	10.9	7.9	2.7	12.3	0.5	0.0	34.4
1991-1992	0.0	2.6	0.7	4.9	2.3	15.6	0.8	0.0	26.9
1992-1993	T	T	19.9	2.3	23.3	42.4	4.6	0.0	92.5
1993-1994	T	4.3	5.6	33.6	30.5	35.3	T	0.0	109.3

 

 

State College’s snow average was ahead of Boston by several inches in the 1981-2010 averages and went several inches behind with the new 1991-2020. Shows how cruddy it’s become there during our bonanza. They get the occasional good season still but no doubt something climactic has shifted to favoring these big coastal storms vs inland/huggers.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm so jealous of the interior 

Don’t be. I’d rather be here for snow for the last 10 winters generally than anywhere in central PA other than orographically favored places. It’s a lousy place to live if you want major snow events. 

14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Still snowing moderately along I81 all the way from the MD border up to the Hazleton area in PA.  Mixed with rain in the Harrisburg area.  To have snow along most of the length of that highway at this time of the year is probably unprecedented.  It’s rare even in January.  Elevations range from 300’ to 1500’ along that stretch.

Very nice event out in central PA for a change, too bad it had to come so late in the season. Hopefully the developing CCB can hold in heavy snow for a while. That’ll determine who can pile up to warning totals vs advisory. It’s always annoying when you’re snowing heavy and the dryslot comes in to shut it off after 3 hours which is a very frequent problem in PA.  

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a much warmer storm for the coast than that one since we will have a +AO spike tomorrow. So the storm is going hug the coast instead of taking a BM track. But the higher elevations will get a heavy wet snow. The late March strat warming really primed the atmosphere for blocking with the near record weak SPV. This phasing storm Monday night will really pump the -AO block. Probably the most -AO of the year near -2. I think the 88° high at Newark on the 14th will stand as the warmest of the month. The late month blocking will probably favor an active backdoor pattern.

 

 

Yep, whenever you see those troughs developing over the Maritimes this time of year you know what’s coming. Blocking at the worst possible time once again. 

5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Sorry, Brightwaters 

Didn’t miss much. Here it was a brief moderate shower amongst drops here and there. 

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some snowfall amounts from North Dakota:

GLENBURN    ND    30.5
3 NNW MINOT    ND    30.0
NORWICH    ND    28.0
3 ENE VELVA    ND    28.0
LANSFORD    ND    27.5
4 W RED LODGE    MT    27.0
1 NW HEBRON    ND    26.5
1 W DUNN CENTER    ND    26.0
BURLINGTON    ND    26.0
UNDERWOOD    ND    24.3
3 S NYE    MT    24.0
GLENBURN    ND    24.0
10 NE RICHARDTON    ND    24.0
10 NE SENTINEL BUTTE    ND    24.0
LANSFORD    ND    24.0
CARPIO    ND    24.0

 

36" now just N of Minot. 

Insane temp gradient right on the Sound. Huntington Bay is at 56 but a mile or two away in Centerport is 76.