jm1220

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

I know, but the comments every time somebody mentions ratios or posts a Kuchera map is ridiculous. Not the same type of storm at all but La Guardia got 9 inches of snow on .3 QPF earlier this month. ratios are a THING.

I’ll say that if the 40-50+ mph winds don’t happen tomorrow or in the meat if the storm then ratios might work out. Lift looks good in the temp layer (-12 to -18C) for a while for most of us where dendrites would form. But the 970 or under MB low expected will generate much stronger winds by the morning and would ruin it by breaking the flakes up. Ratios are about the temp where the flakes are made in the cloud and those flakes making it to the ground. I’ve been in 10 degrees before in a bunch of 10-1 ratio at best sand flakes because of poor growth. Not saying it’ll happen here but you can’t just take it’ll be cold and it’s snowing for big ratios. 

Long Island-Incoming. Interested to see where this westernmost band shaping up over SE NJ ends up. Could be over the city by the looks of it. 

Just now, Metasequoia said:

I think it's a couple hours earlier than the NWS forecasted. Others feel free to correct me. 

Can he pilot about 1000 military planes to about 200 miles east of Charleston and dump about a billion ice cubes in the water so the convection would stop there? Please and thanks. 

In all seriousness it’s nowcast time and we just have to see how it evolves. 

11 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I don’t think NWS is using Kuchera amounts…

No but people shouldn’t think there will be 18” on 1” liquid either. 

1 minute ago, JohnnyDop said:

Holy convection as it stregthens right now over the Gulf Stream. Few hours ago there were only 5 lightning strikes. Nies there 5 per minute. 

That’s what we don’t want. We want that convection to be weaker. That might be the mechanism to string out the low and drag it east. But the short range models are in good shape so hopefully not. 

Incoming for the city east-first heavy band coming in from Monmouth. Also have an inch or so here in Long Beach. 

14 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Where are all the naysayers?

Right here. For the 1000th time the Kuchera amounts aren’t happening. Those seem to assume like 16-1 ratios and that won’t happen in the strong winds we have in the meat of the storm and especially tomorrow. 12-1 sure so you can increase the 10-1 map somewhat but not too much. It would still be a great event though regardless. 

45 minutes ago, JohnnyDop said:

Nice band already setting up from Central NJ down to Richmond 

Perhaps the beginning of the outer heavy snow band. Let’s see how far west it can get up here. Unfortunately NW of that is likely the big cutoff. 

Borderline moderate in Long Beach. Good coating on all surfaces other than the street. Radar looking good to the SW. Here we go. 

I think it’s HRRR/RAP time at this point. And they’re both trending better gradually. 

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of posters here live in NNJ and the Hudson Valley and are at major risk of underperforming.

It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts. 

NYC 0.8” or so liquid on the last few HRRR runs. 

HRRR seems to be getting better with the storm evolution and steady with me about 1.2-1.3” liquid. Hopefully we can get 12-1 ratios which would be 14-16”. Suffolk has 1.5-1.7” which should be 20”+ in places. 

Light snow in Long Beach. Surfaces beginning to be coated. 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is unreal

way more amped when everything was east at 18z

What a hilarious shift this close in. Models really have no clue here. 

That was a nice improvement. HRRR/RAP are also holding steady or improving. Maybe we’ve got a shot after all here. 

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it? 

Partly yes. It’s warm advection ahead of the main low (whatever that is given the model trends) developing off the Carolinas. 

33 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

A month of great blocking and we couldn't buy a drop of precip. Now the storm train is rolling and there's an express track from NC out into the Atlantic.

Maybe “convection” can bail us out next time there’s a 3/14/17 type storm. Of course those are when all systems are go and the people who are supposed to get buried go without a hitch.

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is one of the largest rug pulls I've ever seen on models the day of a storm.  

This is… pretty crazy. I thought warm Atlantic waters are supposed to help storms, not make them sheared out garbage? 

I’m still reasonably optimistic I get 12” in Long Beach where I’ll be. But normally with a look like that aloft I’d be thinking 18”. Maybe we should get in a boat and head 500 miles east to go storm chasing later with the amount of energy this convection is supposed to steal.  

Im hoping it’s overdone but I’m not the one with the Ph.D to be able to tell one way or the other. 

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Rgem looks worse

A little. It has the low as essentially strung out garbage which pivots the whole mess east.

I think the models might be picking out the gradient that’s usually more than forecast which would be maybe 20 miles west of the city. But the most important consideration is this dual low/dumbbell and how real it is. 

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Random thought this afternoon... but I think Long Island could be the jackpot here. 

Your fingers to God’s keyboard! 

I have no freaking clue what’s going to happen with this. You would think with the upper air lows where they are it would be a great outcome for the vast majority of us. 

Crazy. To be honest this dumbbell low might be worse north of us than down here. HRRR gets the goods into our area and S CT before it gets shunted to an extent by the fujiwara thing the lows do. But I really don’t know what to think with this. Also if you showed me the 700mb low track on the Euro I would think at least near NYC and east would get slammed. It takes a very nice track overall. 

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule

i still do not believe the multi center idea

i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye

and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers 

I usually would disregard the convection chasing to an extent but it already happened to the 1/9-10 storm this month. Even so it was a very nice event for most of us.