jm1220

0z HRRR 10-1 map (expect ratios to be more like 8-1 near the coast) and HRRR model snow map-more realistic. Either way impressive.

HREF looks good. 1-2” down to roughly I-195. 2-4” for the south shore, southern half of NYC and I-78 to I-80 roughly. 4-6” for northern NYC and LI (the LIE is the dividing line) and north of I-80, and 6+ in CT and Hudson Valley.

If we go to sleet in an hour I'm blaming your snowblower and will drive to Commack to sledgehammer it.

Where you are might be dicey especially if you're south of Sunrise Highway. That's like tier 1 of the area to get screwed. Tier 2 is there to the LIE, Tier 3 is north of the LIE and favored in winter events as much as anyone can be on LI. We want the coastal low to develop as soon as possible and veer the wind to more ENE so the ocean influence is lessened. And for the snow to come in like a wall. Showery crap will allow the air to warm.

All about where the sleet line makes it to, as usual. The dual pol radar'll be our best friend or worst enemy tomorrow night. NAM is more aggressive with the mid level warmth as usual but it can sometimes overdo it. If the coastal low takes over fairly early it should help mute the northward warm push. If we have shredded up precip the warm mid level air will have an easier time getting a foothold. And I do buy the big difference between south and north shore snow/frozen amounts here. Hopefully everyone gets a decent event and for most it'll multiply our seasonal snow total by several times or more so there's that.

GFS looks unchanged, maybe a little colder.

Surprised no advisory here. Advisory criteria is 2” or greater in 24 hours and officially the N Shore/NYC is above that?

We're likely narrowing the goalposts. At least there hasn't been a wholesale trend back north (though there's still time for one) and Euro held onto its cold solution. NAM is probably the warm goalpost and Euro the cold one. I think the John Marshall map makes sense. We want the snow to come in like a wall and not shredded so we can accumulate efficiently and not allow the warm air to surge in the lulls.

It might get Central Park over the record lowest snow. Snow drought being solved is still a looooong way off. That being said 3-4” here would be a godsend.

Good sign that the Euro isn’t ticking back north yet. If it’s this wrong this close in it has a major problem. We’re seeing especially in the meso models a significant south/north shore difference and I agree with it. The onshore winds are never good right along the coast and we have a marginal setup as is. This isn’t an especially cold airmass it’s coming into. If I had to guess I’d say an inch or so in Staten Island, southern NYC, LI and along I-78. Along I-80 and northern half of NYC and LI probably 2-4” and once you’re in the Hudson Valley and CT more like 4-7”. Usual caveat too about whether the snow comes in like a wall or it starts shredding up. If like a wall it’ll accumulate everywhere quickly and also hold the warm air aloft back somewhat. If it comes in shredded it obviously won’t accumulate as fast or at all if the coast is battling 35-36 degree surface temps and also the warm air aloft will have an easier time advancing in the precip breaks so when it does come down heavier again it might be sleet.

Even down here we've had some good April storms. 2018 was of course the mother of all late season comebacks. Up to 20" on 3/21/18 and 6" on 4/2 morning.

15z RAP looks very nice but is probably too cold. Has 5" all the way down to PHL.

GFS 12z looks pretty good to me at least I-78 on north. RGEM didn't really change as others said. So as far as I can see we're still on track around NYC. We definitely do still have to be careful though and not lock anything in since there's still time for a 50 or so mile N bump that would make it a lousy rain/sleet event south of the Hudson Valley/CT. There really isn't much room for error for most of the subforum.

3z RAP that goes out to 51hr looks very cold. Colder than any model I've seen-even Philly has a couple inches on the 10-1 map.

GGEM is colder than 12z but also a little drier. Accums get down to the northern Philly suburbs. Also less of a front end thump like look so eventually it does get warm enough for the city to change to rain or non-snow. Light precip lingers into Tue morning.

In general it looked about the same to me as last run. Looks like a good front end burst then we see how far north the sleet line for north shore/rain for south shore makes it.

Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute.

Certainly got a little colder but also dry compared to other models. Has even some accumulation down to Philly.

Yes part of it is surface temps due to ESE winds off the ocean. The temp in northern NYC and North Shore is around 33 at 5z Tue, at JFK it's 37. That could be all the difference.

FWIW, the 0z HRRR which goes out to 48hrs looks pretty cold and there's snow down to Philly-Reading.

Looks maybe very slightly colder than 18z. Very big north shore/south shore difference. I get 4" (using 10-1, in reality it's probably 3"), the barrier islands maybe an inch. Which I can believe-ESE winds are no good any time of the year for snow there but especially when we have such a marginal airmass.

Someone became the turd in the punchbowl. And like SnoSki said it's been as depressing a winter as we've ever experienced here. The Hollywood Sign has more snow than NYC at this point and it's not even an exaggeration. If maybe somehow we manage a few inches (tons of ways a SWFE can turn right back around and be a washout here) it's no skin off your teeth and you'll probably end up with about the same. Boo-hoo.

Don't you dare lol.

From your lips to God's ears.

Go by soundings. If you’re using Pivotal you can click on your town at a specific hour and see the sounding.