jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We could still get a nice snow event in that timeframe if we can line up a well timed system and some blocking. To me that kind of cold anomaly everywhere might just mean cold and dry but we’ll see.
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What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off.
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I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs.
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Below normal in southern ME but not terribly so. Portland ME has 34" for the season, their average up to now is 49". Gray ME which is near Portland has 42.7", their average up to now is 59". But both sites are doing better than this time last year. Concord NH has 37.6", their average up to now is 48.7". It does get substantially worse in SNE-Boston has 9.7" so far but I think that clears their all time worst for snow and they're golden for a significant event from the Tue event unless it totally craps the bed which I guess is possible. So by this time next week it's likely they're over 20" which is still quite lousy for them but even proportionally to average much better than we'll be if we get another washout. Other New England spots: -Hartford: 9.9" so far -Worcester: 21.0" so far -Providence: 4.9" so far
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Couldn't care less about anymore model fantasies 8-10 or whatever days from now. Just end this nightmare. At least DC gets their 80 degree day today while we get socked in 38 degree raw gunk.
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We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.
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Was just going to say don't even bother looking. For the city/LI it's maybe brief sleet to rain. Still good N of the city but if this stronger primary idea is real it'll start hurting there too. It's a SWFE as far as we're concerned and whatever secondary does develop does so too late to benefit anyone other than eastern New England. Confluence ahead of it looks modest as well and gets kicked right out. If there's no good turnaround in this trend and soon, the majority of us are done. It'll be an I-90 focused event like so many of these end up.
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Could be okay here for a couple hours but as I said if it’s sleet to rain I’d rather it just not happen. You’re right about the Hudson Valley but so far if you’re I-84 and N it’s been looking good. However in these the sleet always makes it further north than expected at this point especially if we’re still dealing with the strong primary driving mid level warmth in.
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We've had a winter full of storms like these that cut for the lakes. Makes perfect sense. The one difference here is that there's half decent confluence/blocking around, but if it's wilting away as it approaches it does us zero good. But it does Boston plenty of good since they have much more wiggle room due to the high placement and preceding blocking, and their climo does the rest with their much better outcomes in miller B situations and plenty of decent SWFE outcomes too. Unless there's a huge wrinkle they're golden for a warning event, and that's on the low end. Bottom line is as I've said we need this Nina to be gone. We technically have a chance at this where we are but my bet would be for another garbage outcome like the rest unless you're N and especially NE of the city a good 50+ miles.
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Perfect kick in the teeth run. Would be absolutely fitting for the bookend to be 50 miles NE of me or so getting buried while I sleet to rain.
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If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23.
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I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away.
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Can’t think of a time that setup has ever worked for us-a well defined primary making it into Canada. If it trends into a run of the mill SWFE I’ll take a hard pass.
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I’ll have to look into some of the data and Bluewave would know much better, but it took near record blocking IIRC to get the 2/1/21 Miller B to work out for NYC. It really takes some doing/luck for these redevelopers to work out for most of us. They certainly can but like I said it’s like drawing an inside straight. If the blocking really will be significant we have a chance. If it starts to wilt as the storm approaches we’re screwed.
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I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018.
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Boston is having a lousy winter but not completely shut out like we are and they have as good a chance as anyone with this upcoming setup-unless something seriously goes wrong with this early next week storm they’re in for at least a solid warning event. Nina winters in general work out just fine for most of New England and are on balance probably better than El Niño especially stronger Ninos because SWFE events which Nina’s send trains of work out way better there. 07-08 was a great New England winter but totally sucked in NYC for that reason. At this point I couldn’t care less about 1-3” to rain that washes it away 2 hours later. If that’s what we get I’d be annoyed if anything since we wouldn’t get the #1 least snowy winter spot. I’d be at least rooting on some kind of record to end this utter disaster.
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I’m most interested in seeing that trend with the confluence than anything else. It’s the only way those of us SW of I-84 in CT have a real shot at this. And the confluence needs to stay in place and not scoot out as the low approaches.
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There's a way this one COULD work out for people beyond CT and the far N folks but it would take an inside straight or flush. Many more ways for Syracuse to Boston to get it to work. That simple when we're sweating a SWFE/strong Lakes low somehow transferring over in time. We really need this Nina garbage which keeps promoting these setups to GTFO.
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In Boston and I-90 corridor which get plenty from SWFE type systems absolutely, and then the buried scenario happens when they have much more time than us for the miller B to crush them. For even the relative table scraps in NYC scenario to work out, the trends for confluence need to get better. If in the next 48 hours we don't see more improvement I'm closing this one out (models so far look about hold-serve, GFS a little worse). Remember also that if anything these SWFE type events trend warmer at the end because models usually don't pick up the mid level warmth until the end. We don't want this to still be a SWFE when it gets here.
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The 3k NAM has over 150 inches of snow in some of the mountains NE of LA from the upslope conveyor coming in. At 60hr which is the end of the run the heavy rain is still coming in too. That's overdone but some of the snow totals in those mountains will be obscene with the low snow levels and due SSW upslope flow.
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I wouldn’t get excited until we’re within 96 hours and probably 72 hours. Any Miller B setup for NYC is very fragile. Could definitely work out but we need strong blocking and some cold air at least better than we’ve had to force redevelopment off the Delmarva and it to be snow. There needs to be a brick wall in place to force that redevelopment in time to save us from going all or mostly rain or fast dry slot. Us-south of I-84 especially west of CT. The "default" with these is that SNE gets buried and we beg/do tricks for some table scraps SW of NYC.
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A kick in the groin like that would totally fit this winter. Rain/sleet mix in Melville. Another T.
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Euro’s probably insanely overdone but the fact remains that we need an earlier transfer. There could definitely be a powerful coastal storm given the untapped warm waters off the coast and the fact we’re headed into prime season for some big ones. Without the early transfer it’s essentially another crap SWFE as far as we’re concerned.
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All depends on where such redevelopment would happen. A NAO block/50-50 in place would be best. If not it could be congrats Boston or even another sucky SWFE like the others.
