jm1220

Seems like it could come together if the low bombs in a good place from coastal NJ on NE but easily could just be another wasted setup and this "winter" with another kick in the groin at the end. IDK. Guess we have to wait another day or two at least.

Yup. Snow was also dumping here for a while which helped accumulate obviously.

The ratio here in the last storm was probably 8:1 and that was with temps 31-32 during the snow. On the immediate coast it didn’t accumulate because temps were stuck at 34-35. We can definitely get accumulation from this if rates increase but we want to veer the wind direction to offshore and get temps down preferably to freezing or below. On the coast that will be hard.

Could be another situation where the south shore gets white rain or just rain and the north shore can be a few degrees colder and accumulate. Airmass is very marginal as others have said and we need it to deepen close by to bring some cold air in. If it’s light stuff it won’t accumulate unless you’re inland.

NW Suffolk County.

Not sure if you want to add the 1-2” color anywhere on Long Island but there was just over an inch here (I would say 1.1-1.2”) and @STORMANLI had 1.2” two towns east of me in Commack.

Snow was gone here by 10:30am.

Yeah I saw that after I made the original post and edited it out. Thanks for putting it together.

Yep still in line for the record. Saturday has a decent chance at producing something but difficult to get excited this winter until it’s actually snowing. With the snow this morning I’m up to about 7.5”. Might as well be the snow belt compared to places just SW of me.

The Saturday event is worth watching for most of us IMO. It’s a pretty impressive upper level low that’s taking a half decent track for once and isn’t in danger of cutting. The confluence might crush it south but for once we wouldn’t have to worry about a cutter or SWFE threat, and a 50-70 mile or so shift north is a very real possibility at this stage and could deliver a warning or near warning event where it can bring in good moisture since it should be cold enough. Anything for next week is still way too early to call since we’ll need to see how the first storm rearranges the pattern and any setup for a follow up storm.

In any case the snow’s already gone here. Glad I’m an early riser for work lol.

Must have been white rain for most of it since I’m sure I had less precip but ended up with 1.1-1.2”. The radar looked pretty juiced headed for the south shore but it probably all came down at 33-34 degrees.

And there’s still plenty more coming for CA. Multiple atmospheric rivers likely and they will be warmer, so the snow will start to melt and add to the flooding. The PNA has been so insanely negative/bad that it’s driven the storms into CA instead of the Pacific NW like Nina would normally.

Lol wow.

Here just over an inch.

About an inch here too. Looks nice. From the looks of radar last night it seemed like the snow was trying to edge a little north of where models were putting it.

This could be the end for the futility record, Central Park needs 0.7” to go over the lowest ever.

Guess that’s what I’ll be hoping for.

Guardedly optimistic that some gets over the mountains, but we’ll have to see how heavy a band of snow can get started. In any case good luck to you guys.

It centered on impacts over E MA 5 days out or so and the question was always how far west the heavy snow could get. Very much like Jan 2015. The heavy snow edged west enough to get most of Suffolk County but couldn’t get the final 50 miles into NYC. And there was a problem with convective lows firing east of the main low that didn’t allow it to spread snow far enough west-they stole energy from the main coastal low.

We essentially want that closed upper low to go underneath us. That would cause strong deepening of the surface low in a good location, and the upper low being south of us would funnel in lots of moisture into cold air. But we want the 500mb low to be closed to generate a real comma head/CCB snow band.

If the snow comes down heavier it will accumulate but the real question is how much moisture will be left as it downslopes. It’ll be moving too fast to really gather much from the Atlantic in time. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch anywhere in this sub forum. Central PA will do better.

Congrats State College!

Could be a nice surprise for a narrow swath. Other models have it SW of the city, and drying out from downslope east of the mountains.

There was sleet mixing in for a good chunk of the city around midnight and after that didn’t get into the Bronx. Temps in midtown may have been a degree or two warmer than surrounding areas as well. The sleet line might’ve gotten into Central Park.