jm1220

36 here. Should be a fun one.

We’ll cool down quick when the winds switch to offshore I think.

We might lose a small amount at the very beginning especially on the barrier islands, but the northerly winds are bringing in fresh cold air this time and it should be very brief that it’s not accumulating or a mix. Goes to show though what still happens here when winds are onshore in December.

Good sign. We might go to town for a few hours if we can get some good moisture transport north and banding. Thank goodness this isn't another system with lame cold air and we have fresh arctic air plunging in when the winds turn north.

Yep, it sucks. Glad though when it finally wakes up.

GFS looks great. Finally woke up.

I definitely see the chance for a northern weenie band somewhere, hopefully it doesn't park over the sound. That's where the mid level lift and fronto would be best and could sneak a 5-6" total. North of that unfortunately might be skunked somewhat with subsidence but we have to see how it evolves. Also liking how the snow seems to linger longer which might be based on the trough bending a little more and bringing more moisture north, so it might be more like a 12 hour event from maybe 3z to 15z around or east of the city. The sound might help enhance the snow as well over LI since we have a northerly flow with the storm-the northerly winds enhance lift through frictional convergence-the wind "piles up" over LI and forces air to rise. Should be a nice little event. Not huge by any means but on the upper end of what this kind of fast pattern allows. I could see a 6" total or two where the banding sits overhead and if the snow lingers for 12 hours or more.

I wouldn't say it got "much worse". I'd say it largely held serve. Small fluctuations are really just noise. The setup is that a trough is diving SE and a shortwave is developing a coastal low that's headed NE quickly. It's not a setup for heavy snow anywhere and the diving SE trough is bringing in dry air. So I do believe there'll be a zone where there's a lot of virga because of dry air coming SE and in any given location there won't be snow for more than 6 hours or so. The S coast of CT is in the game for a light event still. Edit-and new GFS looks a little better for your region. Went from 1.5" to 2.1" at BDR. At this point we're dealing with noise for the most part.

RGEM held serve or got slightly better I think.

Seems like that could be another weenie spot based on the hi-res so far, maybe just E of Philly to Monmouth. There might be one there and on the N end of the steady snow shield which is where the mid level lift/fronto might be best.

There's been that weenie enhanced snow area in central and eastern Suffolk. Maybe some enhancement from the Sound and from the somewhat blossoming snow shield headed east. Port Jeff to Riverhead might be a good zone for someone to get 5".

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow.

When I lived in Central PA we had numerous setups like this where snow just skipped over the middle third of the state because of downslope, and it always sucked.

Here at the coast we’re starting at or slightly above freezing which is of course the thorn in most of our setups. It’ll cool quickly though. Hopefully the robust models win out, there could definitely be some good banding for a while that could drop an inch an hour or so.

GFS looked a little better to me at 18z.