jm1220
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Rich get richer.
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Sneaky warm day here-up to 88.
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The flood watches east of the city probably could've been taken down yesterday AM although maybe Upton kept them up because of uncertainty with the surface low's evolution. But it was 100% obvious starting 48hrs out that the heaviest rain would be west of the city. The expectation was widespread 2-3" from what I saw which I think only happened in some parts of Suffolk. Much of Nassau and most of the city had 1" or less. I had maybe 1.7". Maybe someone had a flood warning in Suffolk but I was asleep. I wasn't optimistic since a lot of the models went to straight dry slot here but was a little pleasantly surprised.
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Instability showers today under the upper low.
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Since we’re in a very strong El Niño- probably.
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About 1.6” here. Better than expected-developing low came through.
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Latest HRRR has some decent rain for LI overnight and some intensification with the developing low. So far I think there's been a 30 second shower here.
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We’ll see how congealed the storms over eastern NJ are when they get here. Models have a quick transit east of the city. If they stay congealed we’ll at least get a quick half to 1”. If not we might barely get the ground wet. Tomorrow we probably get instability showers under the upper low.
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Our rain east of the city comes around midnight with the front/developing low moving east. Might be a quick line of decaying showers, might be more substantial storms but it's moving east and not stalling like today over NJ. Maybe here and there could be flash flooding if it's the substantial storms but it seems like it's in and right out. Then tomorrow looks like on and off instability showers.
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It’ll rain here but it’ll happen tonight late and tomorrow. The stuff today will obviously miss us west. And it won’t be anything like west of the city. It is what it is and typical for summer but I don’t think many want flooded basements. I think it’s pretty safe for Upton to remove the flood watches east of the city.
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I don’t know about never-models were juiced 24-48 hours ago even here but yesterday the trend was obvious. The system became less progressive. Maybe we can salvage something with the coastal low development.
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I think our chance here is largely with whatever coastal storm develops. For today I agree the vast majority will be for NJ and Hudson Valley. Some of the modeling did get wetter east of the city today so we have to wait and see. But I’m not too optimistic.
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Yep, looks like the exact same areas will get pummeled again or at least the highest chance.
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Been wetter than average for July in my backyard but otherwise anything of real interest has missed. Severe weather July 4th missed east and the heavy flooding rain north and west. Zzzzzz and looks to continue that way. Hopefully since we’re still in a long term drought enough survives east of the city to make it to an inch here total but this seems to be another either you’re flooded out or dry. At least the lawns are green and no swarms of pests that come after flooding rains.
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Yep, seems pretty straightforward to me. Models almost unanimously nailing that area that got hit last week too.
