jm1220

If we can somehow get that trough/vortmax to track under us and better yet close off SE of LI. The ridge out west has to be steep enough to allow it to dig and some blocking to the north would be good to slow everything down and lock in a high. In this pattern that's how we get anything to happen outside of a lucky 1-2" type clipper like last year before Christmas in a fast zonal flow.

It’s also terrible for your car when it messes with the paint.

Doesn’t matter what any of us think-it’s what the pattern supports and how any storm evolves. Hopefully we can get an outcome where the S/W can dig and amplify close SE of us and there’s some blocking, so any high pressure isn’t booted east, and the storm will develop offshore and keep winds out of the north. We’ve seen that fast zonal flow either brings what we saw yesterday with suppression, or inland tracks/unfavorable lead up to the storm like early in the week. Could we see a good outcome on 12/13 or later in the month? Definitely and I hope so, but we need pretty significant mid latitude pattern changes to what we have now. Those are just facts and it doesn’t matter much whether the MJO is officially Phase 8 or whatever when other factors override it.

I’m not really paying attention to it at this point but a similar setup to last week would mean more rain coast/snow inland. If we’re blasted with southerly winds ahead of any storm it will rain in the city. Waters are still way too warm to allow snow with onshore flow in mid December-still around 50 at Jones Beach. We can maybe get away with it in Feb when waters are coldest for the year.

A borderline top tier event in Long Beach-altogether I think there was 12-14” there. The 12/5 portion was a huge surprise because the initial overrunning was supposed to be quick snow to rain but stayed all heavy snow (back in the good old days when primary lows transferred to the coast before they torched us). There was 7-8” that day and another 6” with the coastal storm part. Parts of LI under heavier banding ended with 20”. Closer to the city the banding was more spotty and I remember some lulls.

I’m going away from 12/19-23, guaranteed the Dec storm that gets Central Park over 4” happens then.

That was an amazing storm. I walked on the Long Beach boardwalk in the height of that and it was a whiteout. Some of the best blizzard conditions I’ve experienced. 1/4/2018 was up there too.

Few flurries here.

I think the main problem is the flow just won’t amplify when we need it to because of the ferocious Pacific jet which knocks the PNA ridge down or nudges it east too much. So even if we have more southern stream energy it will just get booted out to sea. We had plenty of storminess south of us last winter that couldn’t turn the corner. But when we have periods of -PNA, the SE ridge returns with a vengeance and we go back to cutter/SWFE, or risk any -NAO linking up with the ridge. Also in any Nina December we need to make opportunities count when we have cold stretches like these because odds are, later in the winter will be more hostile if anything and many have posted the stats about how we do around NYC when Central Park has over vs under 4” snow in December in a Nina. So I know it’s only 12/5 but given Nina climo, it’s frustrating we’re back to the exact same BS from last winter with wasted dry cold, suppressed garbage then warm/wet.

Yep-12/26/2010 is one of my favorites living there for sure. Too bad we couldn’t get that death band over NJ a little further east.

28-29 at 1pm, legit cold for this time of year.

DC has 1” before NYC or BOS even has measurable. Who would’ve had that on their bingo chart in a Nina winter.

If we can get a western ridge to build and hold on, we have a chance at some storm turning the corner and getting some snow outside of a lucky clipper or minor system. However they’ve been getting knocked down or nudged aside which makes the pattern too zonal.

I remember 92-93 for the Dec 92 and March 93 huge storms, 93-94 as being my first real winter and bitterly cold/icy, 94-95 lousy except the one snow to rain event on 2/4, 95-96 epic obviously, 96-97 entirely forgettable-don’t remember 4/1 at all which was probably a bunch of white rain here, 97-98 torch with the record El Niño, 98-99 cutter city with the strong Nina response, 99-00 as also pretty forgettable other than the late Jan 2000 system which was OK here but a lot better to the west, supposed to be a brush or out to sea.

Or Richmond. Seems to snow plenty there these days with these suppressed crap storms. First teens-currently 17 here.