jm1220
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I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21).
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Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there.
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I saw FRG has 29 dewpoint and ISP 31. I agree they’ll probably tick up overnight. It usually cools down pretty good where I am but I’m elevated 50 feet or so just east of 110.
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Where I am I think it’s pretty likely. Dews are in the upper 20s and wind should be about calm.
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The reality is what is is on the Pacific side, and since that is the largest ocean and holder of worldwide heat, it largely drives our weather. We can deal with modestly unfavorable and make it work with a decent NAO and luck like 2010-11 for example, but off the charts unfavorable like the last few years and there's just no way for it to work unless we pull something like a royal flush. I don't like the reality same as anyone else here but we have to accept it. The N PAC especially east of Japan needs to markedly change for there to be good favorable windows near the coast for snowstorms. Maybe some combination of factors can happen to pull a rabbit out of the hat but we saw last winter-time after time favorable setups collapsed. If this was 15-20 years ago when the Pacific was better, last winter would've been a 50"+ season areawide.
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-NAO blocking does us no good and can actually hurt if we get a steep SE ridge that links with it. That’s happened several times the last few winters. It can also keep everything suppressed to hell if we have a fast Pacific jet.
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Use ignore and act like adults. There’s no obligation to respond back to garbage/insults. Use the report button. Life happens and mods don’t monitor this place every second. When it gets absurd here and I’m around I delete posts but I’m not here much during the boring as hell weather periods we have more and more of. Life takes priority over babysitting adults acting like 5 year olds.
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Major flooding expected at Point Lookout, Freeport and Lindenhurst Sun overnight especially.
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Long weekend ruiner for most. It's a complex interaction with the shortwave to the north which is throwing models for these fits, but generally seems to be settling into a nuisance event that hopefully replenishes the water table to some degree. Back bays and NJ coast will see moderate flooding in some places due to the easterly fetch, but beyond that an inch of rain and some gusts to 40 isn't notable at all.
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Turning into just a nasty nuisance for most of the long weekend for many.
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I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.
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Guess we keep watering. Would be nice to give the sprinklers a break.
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Yep. Guess we watch tonight and hope for a better trend. Sloppy/late phase as we all know, eastern New England gets the real storm and we hope for a few wraparound table scraps. Since much of LI is back in a drought as of yesterday, whatever we can get is badly needed.
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Looks like a possible Jan 2022/Jan 2015 late bloomer scenario developing. Late bloomer coastal that clobbers New England definitely a possibility-by tomorrow AM we should see the models finally converge on an outcome. I'm just hoping we get a decent soaking for the grass and reservoirs.
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Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter!